Trevena Inc (TRVN) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 29, 2026: fair value of Trevena Inc $0.01, price $0.01, upside -15.0%, quality 29 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $0.0003 – $1,225 · fair‑value band $0.0100 – $0.0103 · the $0.0120 price screens above the $0.0102 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
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Trevena, Inc., a biopharmaceutical company, focuses on the development and commercialization of novel medicines for patients affected by central nervous system disorders.
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Trevena, Inc., a biopharmaceutical company, focuses on the development and commercialization of novel medicines for patients affected by central nervous system disorders. Its lead product candidates include OLINVYK (Oliceridine) injection, a G protein biased mu-opioid receptor (MOR) ligand for the management of moderate-to-severe acute pain; TRV734, a small molecule G protein biased ligand of the MOR, which has completed phase I studies for the treatment of moderate-to-severe acute and chronic pain; and TRV045, a novel S1P modulator for managing chronic pain. Trevena, Inc. was incorporated in 2007 and is headquartered in Chesterbrook, Pennsylvania.
Stock analysis
Trevena Inc (TRVN) currently trades at $0.0120, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $0.0102, 15.0% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
How firm this estimate is: it rests on 2 models at a data quality of 88/100, which puts the evidence level at low.
Scenario range: $0.0100 (bear) to $0.0103 (bull), the price of $0.0120 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 29/100 (below-average quality), in the Healthcare sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Trevena Inc reported revenue of $3.1M in FY2023 versus $31.0K in FY2019, a compound +216.9%/yr. Reported net income was −$40.3M in FY2023.
Key figures
Market cap $9.5K · EPS (TTM) $−48.89 · Return on equity −1,015% · Return on assets (EBIT) −69.4% · Operating margin −1,971% · Revenue growth (YoY) +57.2% · Free cash flow −$33.1M · Net debt $3.3M.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 22 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 40% below its 52-week high and 3,900% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −15%, TRVN screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $0.0100Fair Value $0.0102Bull $0.0103
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.0/100
Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−11.4%
Revenue growth 12 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.1%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−532.1% (2018) → −1,129.2% (2023)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2023 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Biotechnology · 625 stocks
Beats the industry median on 2/4 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score28 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−15.0% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)Negative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
Return on assets−62.4% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth57.2% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equityNegative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
Valuation Multiplesvs Biotechnology median · lower = cheaper
P/BNegative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)13· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 0
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 0
HEALTH (low debt)0· sector 97
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 22
PAST 0: with negative equity (buybacks among others) return on equity is not meaningfully computable.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Trevena Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/TRVN
Frequently asked questions
Is Trevena Inc (TRVN) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $0.0102 versus a price of $0.0120, about −15% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of TRVN?
Our model-based fair value for Trevena Inc is $0.0102 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $0.0120.
What is the quality score of TRVN?
Trevena Inc has a Quality Score of 29/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Trevena Inc (TRVN)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $0.0102 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 2 valuation models. Cautious scenario $0.0100, optimistic scenario $0.0103. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Trevena Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $0.0102, about −15% upside versus a price of $0.0120 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $0.0100, optimistic scenario $0.0103. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the intrinsic value of Trevena Inc (TRVN)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Trevena Inc it is $0.0102 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of $0.0120. It is the blended result of 2 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Trevena Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, TRVN trades above its calculated fair value: price $0.0120, fair value $0.0102, a gap of about −15% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TRVN?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($0.0120); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($0.0102). For Trevena Inc the two are $0.0018 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Trevena Inc worth?
The market values Trevena Inc at about $9.5K (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is $0.0120; our models calculate a fair value of $0.0102 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TRVN?
Our models span a range for Trevena Inc: cautious scenario $0.0100, base $0.0102, optimistic $0.0103 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price $0.0120). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Trevena Inc (TRVN)?
Balance-sheet figures for Trevena Inc (as of Sep 27, 2026): negative equity, so no return on equity and no debt-to-equity ratio. They feed the Quality Score of 29/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is TRVN from its 52-week high?
Trevena Inc trades at $0.0120, about 40% below its 52-week high of $0.0200 and 3,900% above the low of $0.0003 (as of Sep 29, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $0.0102 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Trevena Inc?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc, argenx SE, CSL Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Trevena Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price $0.0120, calculated fair value $0.0102 (−15%), Quality Score 29/100, from 2 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TRVN calculated?
We run Trevena Inc through 2 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $0.0102, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Trevena Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Trevena Inc (TRVN)?
The closing price on Sep 29, 2026 was $0.0120. Our model-based fair value is $0.0102, about −15% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Trevena Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($0.0103). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (29/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The models converge in a tight band ($0.0100 to $0.0103), unusually little disagreement for a valuation. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
Key figures of Trevena Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Trevena Inc (TRVN)?
The market capitalisation of Trevena Inc is $9.5K. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What are the earnings per share of Trevena Inc (TRVN)?
Earnings per share at Trevena Inc are $−48.89. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the return on equity of Trevena Inc (TRVN)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Trevena Inc is −1,015% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Trevena Inc (TRVN)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Trevena Inc is −69.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Trevena Inc (TRVN)?
The operating margin of Trevena Inc is −1,971% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Trevena Inc (TRVN)?
Revenue at Trevena Inc is growing +57.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +0.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does Trevena Inc (TRVN) generate?
The free cash flow of Trevena Inc is −$33.1M (fiscal year 2023). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Trevena Inc (TRVN) carry?
The net debt of Trevena Inc is $3.3M (fiscal year 2023). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Thin data
Sep 27, 2026