Tamarack Valley Energy Ltd (TVE) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 10, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Tamarack Valley Energy Ltd stock C$17.31, price C$11.43, upside +51.4%, quality 61 out of 100. Rating: strongly undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 14 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 10, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range C$1.85 – C$15.06 · fair‑value band C$9.64 – C$32.33 · the C$11.43 price screens below the C$17.31 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 10, 2026.
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Tamarack Valley Energy Ltd. engages in the exploration, development, production, and sale of oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids in the Western Canadian sedimentary basin.
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The company's oil and natural gas properties are the Clearwater and Charlie Lake assets located in the province of Alberta, Canada. The company was formerly known as Tango Energy Inc. and changed its name to Tamarack Valley Energy Ltd. in June 2010.
The company was incorporated in 2002 and is headquartered in Calgary, Canada.
Stock analysis
Tamarack Valley Energy Ltd (TVE) currently trades at C$11.43, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is C$17.31, implying the stock looks roughly 34% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of C$16.46 per share, and 6 of the 14 models we run sit above the C$11.43 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at C$2.60, and 8 of the 14 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: C$9.64 (bear) to C$32.33 (bull), the price of C$11.43 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 61/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Tamarack Valley Energy Ltd reported revenue of C$1.3B in FY2025 versus C$701M in FY2021, a compound +17.7%/yr. Reported net income was −C$36.3M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap C$5.4B (≈ $3.8B) Mid · P/E ratio 15.0 · P/S ratio 3.49 · EPS (TTM) C$0.7600 · Dividend yield 1.4% · Net margin 24.2% · Return on equity 20.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 10.7% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 64 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 24% below its 52-week high and 70% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at 6% fair-value upside, at 51%, TVE screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
BearC$9.64Fair Value C$17.31BullC$32.33
Price C$11.43 · Upside +51.4%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (C$0.5213 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+35.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+35.4%
Revenue growth 22 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+62.7%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−12.3% (2020) → 32.2% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+6.2%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Canada: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +4.0% a year for the price.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (96 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
AI conclusion: Focused shift to lower-cost Clearwater and Charlie Lake plays forms the main strength via reduced obligations and debt support, while minimal durable moat and sustained net losses mark the core weakness.
Main risk: Narrower asset exposure from the pure-play concentration risks undermining production resilience and cash-flow stability in the commodity E&P model.
Tamarack Valley sold non-core assets in eastern Alberta to complete its shift into a pure-play Clearwater and Charlie Lake producer. The move cuts asset retirement obligations and supports debt reduction while focusing operations on lower-cost plays. Our models see it as undervalued, but will the gains from this concentration exceed the risks of narrower asset exposure?
Compare Tamarack Valley Energy Ltd with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas E&P · 286 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/14 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score61 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+51.4% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)20.1% · Top 25%
Return on assets−1.1% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)24.2% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)39.3% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)8.9% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)1.4% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.37× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas E&P median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)15.0× · Pricier than median
P/B2.94× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months)3.49× · Pricier than median
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)14.2× · Pricier than median
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Tamarack Valley Energy Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/TVE
Frequently asked questions
Is Tamarack Valley Energy Ltd (TVE) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 10, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of C$17.31 versus a price of C$11.43, about +51% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of TVE?
Our model-based fair value for Tamarack Valley Energy Ltd is C$17.31 (as of Nov 10, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: C$11.43.
What is the quality score of TVE?
Tamarack Valley Energy Ltd has a Quality Score of 61/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Tamarack Valley Energy Ltd (TVE)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of C$17.31 (as of Nov 10, 2026) from 14 valuation models. Cautious scenario C$9.64, optimistic scenario C$32.33. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Tamarack Valley Energy Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at C$17.31, about +51% upside versus a price of C$11.43 (undervalued). Cautious scenario C$9.64, optimistic scenario C$32.33. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Tamarack Valley Energy Ltd (TVE)?
Tamarack Valley Energy Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about C$1.5B (latest available figure, as of Nov 10, 2026).
Does Tamarack Valley Energy Ltd pay a dividend?
Tamarack Valley Energy Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of 1.36% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 10, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Tamarack Valley Energy Ltd (TVE) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Tamarack Valley Energy Ltd pays a dividend of C$0.156 per share a year, a dividend yield of 1.4%. The last ex-dividend date was Sep 15, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 2022. The payout ratio is 20.5% of earnings. Free cash flow covers the dividend 5.17 times. Our assessment: Well covered. A low payout and the dividend is fully funded by free cash flow, a comfortable, sustainable dividend.
What growth is priced into Tamarack Valley Energy Ltd (TVE)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Tamarack Valley Energy Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +6.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +43.4 % per year. As of Nov 10, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of TVE use?
Our models discount Tamarack Valley Energy Ltd at 9.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 1.14, country premium for Canada. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Tamarack Valley Energy Ltd that is +6.2 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (9.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Tamarack Valley Energy Ltd (TVE) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Tamarack Valley Energy Ltd grew +43.4 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +6.2 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Tamarack Valley Energy Ltd (TVE) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +13.0 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Tamarack Valley Energy Ltd (+6.2 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Tamarack Valley Energy Ltd (TVE)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 6.85 %: that much free cash flow Tamarack Valley Energy Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Tamarack Valley Energy Ltd (TVE)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Tamarack Valley Energy Ltd it is C$17.31 per share (as of Nov 10, 2026), against a price of C$11.43. It is the blended result of 14 valuation models in 6 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit).
Is Tamarack Valley Energy Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 10, 2026, TVE trades below its calculated fair value: price C$11.43, fair value C$17.31, a gap of about +51% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TVE?
No. The price is what the market pays today (C$11.43); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (C$17.31). For Tamarack Valley Energy Ltd the two are C$5.88 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Tamarack Valley Energy Ltd worth?
The market values Tamarack Valley Energy Ltd at about C$5.4B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 10, 2026). Per share that is C$11.43; our models calculate a fair value of C$17.31 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TVE?
Our models span a range for Tamarack Valley Energy Ltd: cautious scenario C$9.64, base C$17.31, optimistic C$32.33 per share (as of Nov 10, 2026, price C$11.43). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of TVE?
Tamarack Valley Energy Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 15.0 (as of Nov 10, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of C$17.31 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 5 fiscal years (2018 to 2024), reported earnings: 14.4. Other multiples: P/B 2.9, P/S 3.5, EV/EBITDA 6.0.
How solid is the balance sheet of Tamarack Valley Energy Ltd (TVE)?
Balance-sheet figures for Tamarack Valley Energy Ltd (as of Nov 10, 2026): return on equity 20.1%, debt of 0.37 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 61/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is TVE from its 52-week high?
Tamarack Valley Energy Ltd trades at C$11.43, about 24% below its 52-week high of C$15.06 and 70% above the low of C$6.73 (as of Nov 10, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of C$17.31 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Tamarack Valley Energy Ltd?
From the same area (Energy) we also value ConocoPhillips explores for,, CNOOC Limited, Canadian Natural Resources Limited, Diamondback Energy, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Tamarack Valley Energy Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 10, 2026: price C$11.43, calculated fair value C$17.31 (+51%), Quality Score 61/100, from 14 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TVE calculated?
We run Tamarack Valley Energy Ltd through 14 models from 6 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of C$17.31 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.1% above its aggregate fair value. Tamarack Valley Energy Ltd currently trades 34% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Tamarack Valley Energy Ltd (TVE)?
The closing price on Nov 10, 2026 was C$11.43. Our model-based fair value is C$17.31, about +51% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Tamarack Valley Energy Ltd right now?
The model range is unusually wide (C$9.64 to C$32.33). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid quality (61/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Key figures of Tamarack Valley Energy Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Tamarack Valley Energy Ltd (TVE)?
The market capitalisation of Tamarack Valley Energy Ltd is C$5.4B (≈ $3.8B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Tamarack Valley Energy Ltd (TVE)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Tamarack Valley Energy Ltd is 3.49 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Tamarack Valley Energy Ltd (TVE)?
Earnings per share at Tamarack Valley Energy Ltd are C$0.7600 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 15.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Tamarack Valley Energy Ltd (TVE)?
The dividend yield of Tamarack Valley Energy Ltd is 1.4% (payout 20.5%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Tamarack Valley Energy Ltd (TVE)?
The net margin of Tamarack Valley Energy Ltd is 24.2% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Tamarack Valley Energy Ltd (TVE)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Tamarack Valley Energy Ltd is 20.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Tamarack Valley Energy Ltd (TVE)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Tamarack Valley Energy Ltd is 10.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Tamarack Valley Energy Ltd (TVE)?
The operating margin of Tamarack Valley Energy Ltd is 39.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Tamarack Valley Energy Ltd (TVE)?
Revenue at Tamarack Valley Energy Ltd is growing +8.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg −2.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Tamarack Valley Energy Ltd (TVE)?
Earnings per share at Tamarack Valley Energy Ltd are growing +153% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Tamarack Valley Energy Ltd (TVE) carry?
The net debt of Tamarack Valley Energy Ltd is C$675M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 1.8 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 10, 2026