Tennessee Valley Authority (TVE) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 25, 2026: fair value of Tennessee Valley Authority $20.71, price $23.22, upside -10.8%, quality 57 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $17.93 – $24.55 · fair‑value band $20.30 – $20.71 · the $23.22 price screens above the $20.71 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
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Tennessee Valley Authority engages in the production and sale of electricity in the United States. It generates power from coal-fired, nuclear, hydroelectric facilities, and combustion turbine and diesel generators.
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Tennessee Valley Authority engages in the production and sale of electricity in the United States. It generates power from coal-fired, nuclear, hydroelectric facilities, and combustion turbine and diesel generators. The company sells power at wholesale to distributor customers comprising municipalities and cooperatives that resell the power to their customers at a retail rate. It also supplies power directly to federal agencies and customers with large or unusual loads, as well as customers with whom it has entered into exchange power arrangements. As of September 30, 2008, it operated various power generating facilities, including 29 conventional hydroelectric sites, 1 pumped storage hydroelectric site, 11 coal-fired sites, 3 nuclear sites, 11 combustion turbine sites, 2 diesel generator sites, 1 wind energy site, 1 digester gas site, 1 biomass cofiring site, and 15 solar energy sites. The company supplies power in Tennessee, northern Alabama, northeastern Mississippi, and southwestern Kentucky and in portions of northern Georgia, western North Carolina, and southwestern Virginia to approximately nine million customers. It also manages the Tennessee River and its tributaries for various river-system purposes, such as navigation; flood damage reduction; power generation; environmental stewardship; shoreline use; and water supply for power plant operations, consumer use, recreation, and industry. The company was founded in 1931 and is based in Knoxville, Tennessee.
Stock analysis
Tennessee Valley Authority (TVE) currently trades at $23.22, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $20.71, implying the stock looks roughly 12.1% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $31.74 per share, and 9 of the 16 models we run sit above the $23.22 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $15.78, and 7 of the 16 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: $20.30 (bear) to $20.71 (bull), the price of $23.22 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 57/100 (solid quality), in the Utilities sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Tennessee Valley Authority reported revenue of $13.7B in FY2025 versus $10.5B in FY2021, a compound +6.8%/yr. Reported net income was $1.4B in FY2025, compounding −2.6%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $12.2M · Dividend yield 4.2% · Net margin 9.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.3% · Free cash flow $13.0M · Net debt $49.0M.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 5% below its 52-week high and 1% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at −4% fair-value upside, at −11%, TVE screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $20.30Fair Value $20.71Bull $20.71
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.51/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+11.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +2.2% a year
Revenue growth 18 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.2%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
+7.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+3.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)4.2%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−0.8% vs 2.0%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.27% → 19%
Compare Tennessee Valley Authority with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its sector: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median. (Industry “Electrical Utilities & IPPs” was too small, so the broader sector is used.)Industrials · 5461 stocks
Beats the sector median on 5/10 measures
A mixed picture versus its sector peers.
Valuation
Quality Score57 · Above median
Fair Value upside−10.7% · Below median
Profitability
Return on assets0.0% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)9.9% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)0.0% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth0.0% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)4.2% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.24× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Industrials median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Tennessee Valley Authority Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/TVE
Frequently asked questions
Is Tennessee Valley Authority (TVE) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $20.71 versus a price of $23.22, about −11% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of TVE?
Our model-based fair value for Tennessee Valley Authority is $20.71 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $23.22.
What is the quality score of TVE?
Tennessee Valley Authority has a Quality Score of 57/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Tennessee Valley Authority (TVE)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $20.71 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 19 valuation models. Cautious scenario $20.30, optimistic scenario $20.71. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Tennessee Valley Authority stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $20.71, about −11% upside versus a price of $23.22 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $20.30, optimistic scenario $20.71. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
Does Tennessee Valley Authority pay a dividend?
Tennessee Valley Authority currently shows a dividend yield of about 4.19% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 27, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Tennessee Valley Authority (TVE)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Tennessee Valley Authority it is $20.71 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of $23.22. It is the blended result of 19 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Tennessee Valley Authority stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, TVE trades above its calculated fair value: price $23.22, fair value $20.71, a gap of about −11% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TVE?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($23.22); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($20.71). For Tennessee Valley Authority the two are $2.52 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Tennessee Valley Authority worth?
The market values Tennessee Valley Authority at about $12.2M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is $23.22; our models calculate a fair value of $20.71 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TVE?
Our models span a range for Tennessee Valley Authority: cautious scenario $20.30, base $20.71, optimistic $20.71 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price $23.22). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Tennessee Valley Authority (TVE)?
Balance-sheet figures for Tennessee Valley Authority (as of Sep 27, 2026): debt of 1.24 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 57/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is TVE from its 52-week high?
Tennessee Valley Authority trades at $23.22, about 5% below its 52-week high of $24.55 and 1% above the low of $23.05 (as of Sep 25, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $20.71 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Tennessee Valley Authority?
From the same area (Utilities) we also value MER, ACEN, FGEN, SPC, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Tennessee Valley Authority stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price $23.22, calculated fair value $20.71 (−11%), Quality Score 57/100, from 19 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TVE calculated?
We run Tennessee Valley Authority through 19 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $20.71, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.9 % above its aggregate fair value. Tennessee Valley Authority itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Tennessee Valley Authority (TVE)?
The closing price on Sep 25, 2026 was $23.22. Our model-based fair value is $20.71, about −11% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Tennessee Valley Authority right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($20.71). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The models converge in a tight band ($20.30 to $20.71), unusually little disagreement for a valuation. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
Where does the earnings growth of Tennessee Valley Authority (TVE) come from?
Earnings per share at Tennessee Valley Authority grew +16.3 % a year from 2012 to 2023. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +0.6 %, EBIT margin +3.3 %, tax rate −2.2 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +14.5 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Tennessee Valley Authority
How large is the market capitalisation of Tennessee Valley Authority (TVE)?
The market capitalisation of Tennessee Valley Authority is $12.2M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the dividend yield of Tennessee Valley Authority (TVE)?
The dividend yield of Tennessee Valley Authority is 4.2%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Tennessee Valley Authority (TVE)?
The net margin of Tennessee Valley Authority is 9.9% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Tennessee Valley Authority (TVE)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Tennessee Valley Authority is 4.3% (avg 4y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
How much free cash flow does Tennessee Valley Authority (TVE) generate?
The free cash flow of Tennessee Valley Authority is $13.0M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Tennessee Valley Authority (TVE) carry?
The net debt of Tennessee Valley Authority is $49.0M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 3.8 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Thin data
Sep 27, 2026