Tennessee Valley Authority (TVE) Fair Value & Analysis
Utilities · US · Market cap $12.6M
Tennessee Valley Authority
TVE · US
Fair value as of: Jul 21, 2026
From 15 valuation models · updated 23 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 21, 2026, revised from $45,529 to $31.64 (−99.9%) since Jun 25, 2026.
A solid business, screening 35% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- Solid quality (57/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
- Our model range runs from $18.09 (bear) to $32.12 (bull), base $31.64. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
- Quality 57/100 (solid quality) with medium evidence: read the verdict with care.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 21, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $17.93 – $24.55 · fair‑value band $18.09 – $32.12 · the $23.48 price screens below the $31.64 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 21, 2026.
Analysis
Tennessee Valley Authority (TVE) currently trades at $23.48, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $31.64, implying the stock looks roughly 34.8% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 57/100 (solid quality), in the Utilities sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: medium), always confirm before acting.
Net debt stands at $49.0M. Fundamentals as of Jul 21, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $18.09 (bear case) to $32.12 (bull case); at $23.48, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 4% below its 52-week high and 4% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at 21% fair-value upside, at 35%, TVE screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 15 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples ($42.98) versus Asset-Based ($21.37). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
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Key figures & financial health
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 21, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 52 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 58
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Tennessee Valley Authority engages in the production and sale of electricity in the United States. It generates power from coal-fired, nuclear, hydroelectric facilities, and combustion turbine and diesel generators.
Full company description
Tennessee Valley Authority engages in the production and sale of electricity in the United States. It generates power from coal-fired, nuclear, hydroelectric facilities, and combustion turbine and diesel generators. The company sells power at wholesale to distributor customers comprising municipalities and cooperatives that resell the power to their customers at a retail rate. It also supplies power directly to federal agencies and customers with large or unusual loads, as well as customers with whom it has entered into exchange power arrangements. As of September 30, 2008, it operated various power generating facilities, including 29 conventional hydroelectric sites, 1 pumped storage hydroelectric site, 11 coal-fired sites, 3 nuclear sites, 11 combustion turbine sites, 2 diesel generator sites, 1 wind energy site, 1 digester gas site, 1 biomass cofiring site, and 15 solar energy sites. The company supplies power in Tennessee, northern Alabama, northeastern Mississippi, and southwestern Kentucky and in portions of northern Georgia, western North Carolina, and southwestern Virginia to approximately nine million customers. It also manages the Tennessee River and its tributaries for various river-system purposes, such as navigation; flood damage reduction; power generation; environmental stewardship; shoreline use; and water supply for power plant operations, consumer use, recreation, and industry. The company was founded in 1931 and is based in Knoxville, Tennessee.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Tennessee Valley Authority reported revenue of $13.7B in FY2025 versus $10.5B in FY2021, a compound +6.8%/yr. Reported net income was $1.4B in FY2025, compounding −2.6%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +0.6 pp · buybacks/dilution +0.0 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
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Peer Group
Industrials · 5370 stocks
How this stock ranks against its sector: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median. (Industry “Electrical Utilities & IPPs” was too small, so the broader sector is used.)
Valuation Multiples vs Industrials median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Electrical Utilities & IPPs stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 21, 2026).
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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