ACEN Fair Value & Analysis
Utilities · PH · Market cap 104B PHP
Fair value as of: Jul 10, 2026
From 13 valuation models · updated 30 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 10, 2026, revised from 5.27 PHP to 2.49 PHP (−52.8%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price −6.3% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 17% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- Weak quality (41/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- Our model range runs from 1.83 PHP (bear) to 3.21 PHP (bull), base 2.49 PHP. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
- Quality 41/100 (below-average quality) with high evidence: the data supports the verdict.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 10, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 2.13 PHP – 12.16 PHP · fair‑value band 1.83 PHP – 3.21 PHP · the 3.00 PHP price screens above the 2.49 PHP fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 10, 2026.
Analysis
ACEN (ACEN) currently trades at 3.00 PHP, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 2.49 PHP, implying the stock looks roughly 17.0% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 41/100 (below-average quality), in the Utilities sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
The stock trades on a trailing P/E of 28.2. Fundamentals as of Jul 10, 2026
Our scenario range runs from 1.83 PHP (bear case) to 3.21 PHP (bull case); at 3.00 PHP, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 14% below its 52-week high and 43% above its 52-week low. For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at 34% fair-value upside, at -17%, ACEN screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 13 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (4.94 PHP) versus Dividend Discount (2.14 PHP). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
Key figures & financial health
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 10, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 41 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 50
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2020 – FY2024 · reported fiscal years
ACEN reported revenue of 37.3B PHP in FY2024 versus 20.5B PHP in FY2020, a compound +16.2%/yr. Reported net income was 9.4B PHP in FY2024, compounding +21.5%/yr from FY2020.
ACEN screens 17% overvalued. Compare with MER →
Peer Group
Industrials · 5353 stocks
How this stock ranks against its sector: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median. (Industry “Electrical Utilities & IPPs” was too small, so the broader sector is used.)
Valuation Multiples vs Industrials median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Electrical Utilities & IPPs stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 10, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| MER MER | 578.00 PHP | 988.27 PHP | +71% |
| AEV AEV | 32.95 PHP | 37.67 PHP | +14% |
| INDIGRIDIV INDIGRIDIV | ₹177.50 | ₹96.05 | -46% |
| SGP SGP | 26.50 PHP | 70.96 PHP | +168% |
| SPC SPC | 10.46 PHP | 4.73 PHP | -55% |
| VVT VVT | 20.20 PHP | 69.79 PHP | +245% |
| SPNEC SPNEC | 1.43 PHP | 5.27 PHP | +269% |
| Entergy New Orleans, LLC ENO | $21.21 | $25.69 | +21% |
| SDN Company 099220 | 678.00 KRW | 497.39 KRW | -27% |
| Tennessee Valley Authority TVE | $23.60 | $31.64 | +34% |
Compare ACEN with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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