TX Rail Products, Inc (TXRP) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 22, 2026: fair value of TX Rail Products, Inc $0.32, price $0.20, upside +58.4%, quality 50 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $0.0051 – $0.3800 · fair‑value band $0.2300 – $0.4200 · the $0.2020 price screens below the $0.3200 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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TX Rail Products, Inc engages in the supplying, distributing, and selling new and used rail and rail products to the coal mining industry, short line railroads, and tunneling contractors in the United States.
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TX Rail Products, Inc engages in the supplying, distributing, and selling new and used rail and rail products to the coal mining industry, short line railroads, and tunneling contractors in the United States. It also offers rail accessories, such as T-rail, switches, steel ties, and related products, including guardrail with flangeway block, crane rail clips, track bolts and spikes, lock washer, spring rod, and others. The company was formerly known as TX Holdings, Inc. and changed its name to TX Rail Products, Inc in January 2024. TX Rail Products, Inc was incorporated in 2000 and is headquartered in Ashland, Kentucky.
Stock analysis
TX Rail Products, Inc (TXRP) currently trades at $0.2020, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $0.3200, implying the stock looks roughly 36.9% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $1.05 per share, and 12 of the 14 models we run sit above the $0.2020 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at $0.3200, and 2 of the 14 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: $0.2300 (bear) to $0.4200 (bull), the price of $0.2020 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 50/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
TX Rail Products, Inc reported revenue of $8.3M in FY2025 versus $3.4M in FY2021, a compound +24.5%/yr. Reported net income was $1.0M in FY2025, compounding +66.5%/yr from FY2021. FY2021 was a trough year, so the rate overstates the trend.
Key figures
Market cap $9.1M · P/S ratio 4.03 · Net margin 12.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 17.3% · Operating margin 13.9% · Revenue growth (YoY) +62.5% · EPS growth (YoY) +30.8% · Free cash flow −$1.4M.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 47% below its 52-week high and 55% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −29% fair-value upside, at 58%, TXRP screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $0.2300Fair Value $0.3200Bull $0.4200
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.50/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+1.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+28.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+28.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +10.3% a year
Revenue growth 23 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+24.7%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
+73.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+73.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.92% vs 12%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−2% → 13%
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Industrial Distribution · 112 stocks
Beats the industry median on 3/8 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score50 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside+58% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on assets−2% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)0% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)14% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth63% · Top 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Industrial Distribution median · lower = cheaper
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Is TX Rail Products, Inc (TXRP) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $0.3200 versus a price of $0.2020, about +58% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of TXRP?
Our model-based fair value for TX Rail Products, Inc is $0.3200 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $0.2020.
What is the quality score of TXRP?
TX Rail Products, Inc has a Quality Score of 50/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for TX Rail Products, Inc (TXRP)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $0.3200 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 14 valuation models. Cautious scenario $0.2300, optimistic scenario $0.4200. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the TX Rail Products, Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $0.3200, about +58% upside versus a price of $0.2020 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $0.2300, optimistic scenario $0.4200. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the intrinsic value of TX Rail Products, Inc (TXRP)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For TX Rail Products, Inc it is $0.3200 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $0.2020. It is the blended result of 14 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is TX Rail Products, Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, TXRP trades below its calculated fair value: price $0.2020, fair value $0.3200, a gap of about +58% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TXRP?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($0.2020); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($0.3200). For TX Rail Products, Inc the two are $0.1180 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is TX Rail Products, Inc worth?
The market values TX Rail Products, Inc at about $9.1M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $0.2020; our models calculate a fair value of $0.3200 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TXRP?
Our models span a range for TX Rail Products, Inc: cautious scenario $0.2300, base $0.3200, optimistic $0.4200 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $0.2020). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How far is TXRP from its 52-week high?
TX Rail Products, Inc trades at $0.2020, about 47% below its 52-week high of $0.3800 and 55% above the low of $0.1300 (as of Sep 22, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $0.3200 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to TX Rail Products, Inc?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value W.W. Grainger, Inc, Fastenal Company, Ferguson Enterprises Inc, WESCO International, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is TX Rail Products, Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $0.2020, calculated fair value $0.3200 (+58%), Quality Score 50/100, from 14 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TXRP calculated?
We run TX Rail Products, Inc through 14 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $0.3200, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.0 % above its aggregate fair value. TX Rail Products, Inc currently trades 58 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of TX Rail Products, Inc (TXRP)?
The closing price on Sep 22, 2026 was $0.2020. Our model-based fair value is $0.3200, about +58% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with TX Rail Products, Inc right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case ($0.2300). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (50/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range ($0.2300 to $0.4200) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of TX Rail Products, Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of TX Rail Products, Inc (TXRP)?
The market capitalisation of TX Rail Products, Inc is $9.1M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of TX Rail Products, Inc (TXRP)?
The price-to-sales ratio of TX Rail Products, Inc is 4.03 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What is the net margin of TX Rail Products, Inc (TXRP)?
The net margin of TX Rail Products, Inc is 12.4% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the EBIT return on assets of TX Rail Products, Inc (TXRP)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of TX Rail Products, Inc is 17.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of TX Rail Products, Inc (TXRP)?
The operating margin of TX Rail Products, Inc is 13.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at TX Rail Products, Inc (TXRP)?
Revenue at TX Rail Products, Inc is growing +62.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +28.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at TX Rail Products, Inc (TXRP)?
Earnings per share at TX Rail Products, Inc are growing +30.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does TX Rail Products, Inc (TXRP) generate?
The free cash flow of TX Rail Products, Inc is −$1.4M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does TX Rail Products, Inc (TXRP) carry?
The net debt of TX Rail Products, Inc is $3.9M (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Thin data
Sep 23, 2026