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Tri-County Financial Group Inc (TYFG) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Tri-County Financial Group Inc stock $56.22, price $84.00, that is 33.1% below the price, quality 56 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 6 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

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Financial Services US

TC Tri-County Financial Group Inc logo Some data Nov 4, 2026

Tri-County Financial Group Inc

TYFG · US
Solid, but expensive

Our calculation puts a fair price 33% below what the stock costs today.

Highly profitable · 23.0% net margin (TTM)
1.3% dividend yield · Low payout
Quality 56/100
Moderate moat 63/100 · thin data
Some data
Fair value $56.22 · Overvalued
Weak Growth (revenue 5y −2.1 %/yr in USD)
Trails peers (2/13)
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$84.00 $17.70 Fair Value $56.22 Aug 2015 Nov 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 4, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $17.70 – $84.00 · fair‑value band $49.68 – $62.38 · the $84.00 price screens above the $56.22 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 4, 2026.

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Company profile

Tri-County Financial Group, Inc. operates as a bank holding company for First State Bank, providing various banking and mortgage banking services, and insurance services to individuals and businesses in the United States. It operates through two segments: Commercial Banking and Mortgage Banking.

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The Commercial Banking segment provides loan and deposit products to individual consumers and businesses in all markets through retail lending, deposit services, online banking, mobile banking, private banking, commercial lending, commercial real estate lending, agricultural lending, and other banking services.

The Mortgage Banking segment offers residential mortgage banking products.

It also provides commercial loans, such as commercial and industrial loans; real estate loans, including commercial real estate, agricultural real estate, and one-to-four family residential mortgage loans; and agricultural loans, comprising agricultural operating loans, farm products, livestock and machinery purchases and other agricultural improvements.

In addition, the company offers demand, savings, money market, and time deposits, as well as individual retirement accounts.

Further, the company provides insurance services, including home, auto, motorcycle, health, and life insurance; and the agency also serves the agricultural community with farm policies, crop hail and multi-peril insurance.

Tri-County Financial Group, Inc. was incorporated in 1986 and is headquartered in Mendota, Illinois.

Stock analysis

Tri-County Financial Group Inc (TYFG) currently trades at $84.00, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $56.22, 33% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $66.24 per share, and 0 of the 6 models we run sit above the $84.00 price.

Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $10.31, and 6 of the 6 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.

Scenario range: $49.68 (bear) to $62.38 (bull), the price of $84.00 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 56/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.

Tri-County Financial Group Inc reported revenue of $67.3M in FY2025 versus $72.4M in FY2021, a compound −1.8%/yr. Reported net income was $13.7M in FY2025, compounding +0.8%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap $200M Micro · P/E ratio 12.6 · P/S ratio 2.83 · EPS (TTM) $6.68 · Dividend yield 1.3% · Net margin 23.0% · Return on equity 10.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.1% (2-year average).

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 63 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades at its 52-week high and 78% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −28% fair-value upside, at −33%, TYFG screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $49.68 Fair Value $56.22 Bull $62.38
Price $84.00 · Downside -33.1%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($4.82 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
Residual Income $53.02 $56.22 $62.00 76
Gordon GGM $7.62 $10.45 $13.02 69
DDM Multi-Stage $7.62 $10.17 $12.70 67
All 6 models by family
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $7.62 $10.45 $13.02 69
DDM Multi-Stage $7.62 $10.17 $12.70 67
Multiples
P/E Multiple $55.74 $74.32 $92.89 63
P/B Multiple $43.62 $58.16 $72.69 55
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $31.19 $41.79 $62.38 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income $53.02 $56.22 $62.00 76

Open the full fair value analysis →

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 56/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 31
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 43
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 61
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 10
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 88
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 94
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 92
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 100
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 93
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+15.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−2.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 12 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.7%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+2.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+1.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.3%

TYFG screens overvalued: fair value 33% below the price. Compare with China Merchants Bank Co →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Banks - Regional · 996 stocks

Beats the industry median on 2/13 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 56 · Above median
Fair Value upside −33.1% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months) 10.3% · Below median
Return on assets 0.9% · Below median
Net margin (12 months) 23.0% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months) 32.3% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) 2.8% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months) 1.3% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.56× · Above median

Valuation Multiplesvs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper

P/E (12 months) 12.6× · Pricier than median
P/B 1.26× · Pricier than median
P/S (12 months) 2.83× · Cheaper than median
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year) 19.6× · Priciest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 8
FUTURE (revenue growth)14 · sector 47
PAST (return on equity)41 · sector 43
HEALTH (low debt)–
DIVIDEND (yield)25 · sector 53

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

HEALTH: for banks, insurers and similar financial firms borrowed money is part of the business, so we do not rate debt here.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Banks - Regional stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
Postal Savings Bank of China Co 601658 ¥5.53 ¥7.59 +37% vs TYFG
China Merchants Bank Co 600036 ¥42.88 ¥52.73 +23% vs TYFG
BNP Paribas SA BNP €91.93 €106.01 +15% vs TYFG
Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A ISP €6.18 €4.49 −27% vs TYFG
State Bank of India SBIN ₹1,019 ₹736.65 −28% vs TYFG
UniCredit S.p.A UCG €76.80 €50.44 −34% vs TYFG
Mizuho Financial Group MFG $9.40 $5.89 −37% vs TYFG
DBS Group D05 69.72 SGD 40.39 SGD −42% vs TYFG
HDFC Bank Limited HDFCBANK ₹788.25 ₹406.39 −48% vs TYFG
ICICI Bank Limited ICICIBANK ₹1,571 ₹615.63 −61% vs TYFG

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Tri-County Financial Group Inc: fair value per Fair Value Calculator

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Tri-County Financial Group Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/TYFG

Frequently asked questions

Is Tri-County Financial Group Inc (TYFG) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 4, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $56.22 versus a price of $84.00, about 33% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of TYFG?
Our model-based fair value for Tri-County Financial Group Inc is $56.22 (as of Nov 4, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $84.00.
What is the quality score of TYFG?
Tri-County Financial Group Inc has a Quality Score of 56/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Tri-County Financial Group Inc (TYFG)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $56.22 (as of Nov 4, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario $49.68, optimistic scenario $62.38. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Tri-County Financial Group Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $56.22, about 33% lower versus a price of $84.00 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $49.68, optimistic scenario $62.38. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Tri-County Financial Group Inc (TYFG)?
Tri-County Financial Group Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $70.5M (latest available figure, as of Nov 4, 2026).
Does Tri-County Financial Group Inc pay a dividend?
Tri-County Financial Group Inc currently shows a dividend yield of 1.26% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 4, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Tri-County Financial Group Inc (TYFG) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Tri-County Financial Group Inc pays a dividend of $1.06 per share a year, a dividend yield of 1.3%. The last ex-dividend date was Sep 30, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 2012. The payout ratio is 15.9% of earnings. Our assessment: Low payout. A low payout ratio: the dividend takes at most 60 % of earnings. Whether free cash flow covers it as well, we cannot see for this company.
What is the intrinsic value of Tri-County Financial Group Inc (TYFG)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Tri-County Financial Group Inc it is $56.22 per share (as of Nov 4, 2026), against a price of $84.00. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models in 4 families (Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit).
Is Tri-County Financial Group Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 4, 2026, TYFG trades above its calculated fair value: price $84.00, fair value $56.22, a gap of about −33% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TYFG?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($84.00); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($56.22). For Tri-County Financial Group Inc the two are $27.78 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Tri-County Financial Group Inc worth?
The market values Tri-County Financial Group Inc at about $200M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 4, 2026). Per share that is $84.00; our models calculate a fair value of $56.22 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TYFG?
Our models span a range for Tri-County Financial Group Inc: cautious scenario $49.68, base $56.22, optimistic $62.38 per share (as of Nov 4, 2026, price $84.00). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of TYFG?
Tri-County Financial Group Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 12.6 (as of Nov 4, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $56.22 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 9 fiscal years (2017 to 2025), reported earnings: 10.5. Other multiples: P/B 1.3, P/S 2.8.
How solid is the balance sheet of Tri-County Financial Group Inc (TYFG)?
Balance-sheet figures for Tri-County Financial Group Inc (as of Nov 4, 2026): return on equity 10.3%, debt of 0.56 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 56/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is TYFG from its 52-week high?
Tri-County Financial Group Inc trades at $84.00, at its 52-week high of $84.00 and 78% above the low of $47.22 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $56.22 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Tri-County Financial Group Inc?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value China Merchants Bank Co, DBS Group, UniCredit S.p.A, Mizuho Financial Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Tri-County Financial Group Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 4, 2026: price $84.00, calculated fair value $56.22 (−33%), Quality Score 56/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TYFG calculated?
We run Tri-County Financial Group Inc through 6 models from 4 families: Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $56.22 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Tri-County Financial Group Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Tri-County Financial Group Inc (TYFG)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $84.00. Our model-based fair value is $56.22, about 33% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Tri-County Financial Group Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($62.38). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (56/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.

Key figures of Tri-County Financial Group Inc

How large is the market capitalisation of Tri-County Financial Group Inc (TYFG)?
The market capitalisation of Tri-County Financial Group Inc is $200M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Tri-County Financial Group Inc (TYFG)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Tri-County Financial Group Inc is 2.83 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Tri-County Financial Group Inc (TYFG)?
Earnings per share at Tri-County Financial Group Inc are $6.68 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 12.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Tri-County Financial Group Inc (TYFG)?
The dividend yield of Tri-County Financial Group Inc is 1.3% (payout 15.9%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Tri-County Financial Group Inc (TYFG)?
The net margin of Tri-County Financial Group Inc is 23.0% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Tri-County Financial Group Inc (TYFG)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Tri-County Financial Group Inc is 10.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Tri-County Financial Group Inc (TYFG)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Tri-County Financial Group Inc is 0.1% (avg 2y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Tri-County Financial Group Inc (TYFG)?
The operating margin of Tri-County Financial Group Inc is 32.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Tri-County Financial Group Inc (TYFG)?
Revenue at Tri-County Financial Group Inc is growing +2.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +4.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Tri-County Financial Group Inc (TYFG)?
Earnings per share at Tri-County Financial Group Inc are growing +14.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Tri-County Financial Group Inc (TYFG) generate?
The free cash flow of Tri-County Financial Group Inc is $10.2M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Tri-County Financial Group Inc (TYFG) carry?
The net debt of Tri-County Financial Group Inc is $41.6M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 4.1 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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