Check 35,000+ stocks against 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors

Tri-County Financial Group Inc (TYFG) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Tri-County Financial Group Inc $81.22, price $79.00, upside +2.8%, quality 57 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

Fair value above price? Yes
Good quality? Yes
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Financial Services · US · ISIN US89546P1084

Some data Sep 23, 2026

Tri-County Financial Group Inc

TYFG · US

NeutralThe stock looks roughly fairly valued with average quality.

·Fair value $81.22 · Fairly valued (+3%)

!Quality 57/100

!Weak Growth (revenue 5y −2.1 %/yr)

✓Highly profitable · 22.3% net margin (TTM)

✓Moderate debt · generates free cash flow

·1.30% dividend yield

!Trails peers (5/13)

!Moderate moat 63/100

!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain

!Weak on dividend: 26 out of 100

26 models, one by oneBear $60.92 to bull $101.53 Growth analysisrevenue history, year by year Quality 57/100 in detail37 factors, each one shown Compared with its peersrank on every measure, side by side

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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $17.70 – $82.50 · fair‑value band $60.92 – $101.53 · the $79.00 price screens below the $81.22 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

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Company profile

Tri-County Financial Group, Inc. operates as a bank holding company for First State Bank, providing various banking and mortgage banking services, and insurance services to individuals and businesses in the United States. It operates through two segments: Commercial Banking and Mortgage Banking. The Commercial Banking segment provides loan and deposit products to individual consumers and businesses in all markets through retail lending, deposit services, online banking, mobile banking, private banking, commercial lending, commercial real estate lending, agricultural lending, and other banking services. The Mortgage Banking segment offers residential mortgage banking products. It also provides commercial loans, such as commercial and industrial loans; real estate loans, including commercial real estate, agricultural real estate, and one-to-four family residential mortgage loans; and agricultural loans, comprising agricultural operating loans, farm products, livestock and machinery purchases and other agricultural improvements. In addition, the company offers demand, savings, money market, and time deposits, as well as individual retirement accounts. Further, the company provides insurance services, including home, auto, motorcycle, health, and life insurance; and the agency also serves the agricultural community with farm policies, crop hail and multi-peril insurance. Tri-County Financial Group, Inc. was incorporated in 1986 and is headquartered in Mendota, Illinois.

Stock analysis

Tri-County Financial Group Inc (TYFG) currently trades at $79.00, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $81.22, implying the stock looks roughly 2.7% fairly valued today.

Valuation

Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $74.68 per share, and 1 of the 4 models we run sit above the $79.00 price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $44.44, and 3 of the 4 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.

Scenario range: $60.92 (bear) to $101.53 (bull), the price of $79.00 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 57/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.

Tri-County Financial Group Inc reported revenue of $67.3M in FY2025 versus $72.4M in FY2021, a compound −1.8%/yr. Reported net income was $13.7M in FY2025, compounding +0.8%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap $188M · P/E ratio 12.2 · P/S ratio 2.48 · EPS (TTM) $6.47 · Dividend yield 1.3% · Net margin 20.3% · Return on equity 10.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.1%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 4% below its 52-week high and 74% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −38% fair-value upside, at 3%, TYFG screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $60.92 Fair Value $81.22 Bull $101.53

Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($3.98 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.

Highest evidence

Residual Income $50.51 $52.57 $54.08 76

P/E Multiple $56.01 $74.68 $93.35 63

P/B Multiple $69.65 $92.87 $116.08 55

All 4 models by family

Multiples

P/E Multiple $56.01 $74.68 $93.35 63

P/B Multiple $69.65 $92.87 $116.08 55

Asset-Based

NCAV (Graham) $33.17 $44.44 $66.33 54

Economic Profit

Residual Income $50.51 $52.57 $54.08 76

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 57/100

Of which business quality 49 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 94

Profitability 31

Margins and returns on capital today

Quality Growth 43

Are margins and returns improving?

Cashflow 61

Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit

Fin. Strength 10

Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk

Investment 88

Disciplined investing over empire-building

Low Volatility 92

Calm price path (market factor)

Momentum 94

Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)

52W Momentum 96

Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)

Net Issuance 93

Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 40/100

Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.

Revenue growth 1 year

+15.0%

Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.

+4.2%

Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.

−2.1%

Start year 2020 (pandemic)

Revenue growth 12 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.

+2.7%

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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.

+2.8%

Earnings growth per share plus dividend.

Earnings per share, growth per year+1.5%

Dividend (yield on the price)1.3%

Growth Forecast

A lot of optimism in the price

The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.

What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).

+19.1%

Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.

What forecasts expect

n/a

No analyst forecast available.

After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +16.4% a year for the price.

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Banks - Regional · 1074 stocks

Beats the industry median on 5/13 measures

Overall it trails its industry peers.

Valuation

Quality Score 56 · Above median

Fair Value upside +3% · Above median

Profitability

Return on equity (TTM) 10% · Below median

Return on assets 1% · Above median

Net margin (TTM) 22% · Below median

Operating margin (TTM) 34% · Below median

Growth and dividend

Revenue growth 23% · Top 25%

Dividend yield (TTM) 1.3% · Bottom 25%

Balance sheet

Debt / equity 0.56× · Above median

Valuation Multiplesvs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 12.2× · Pricier than median

P/B 1.19× · Pricier than median

P/S (TTM) 2.68× · Cheaper than median

P/FCF 18.5× · Priciest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

This stock

Sector peers

VALUE (fair-value potential)37 · sector 11

FUTURE (revenue growth)100 · sector 45

PAST (return on equity)41 · sector 41

HEALTH (low debt)72 · sector 85

DIVIDEND (yield)26 · sector 53

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Banks - Regional stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock	Price	Fair Value	vs Fair Value
DBS Group D05	77.69 SGD	40.48 SGD	−48%
China Merchants Bank Co 3968	HK$51.25	HK$62.30	+22%
Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A ISP	€6.73	€4.04	−40%
HDFC Bank Limited HDFCBANK	₹737.25	₹406.85	−45%
BNP Paribas SA BNP	€101.30	€105.99	+5%
UniCredit S.p.A UCG	€83.28	€77.62	−7%
Mizuho Financial Group MFG	$10.87	$6.75	−38%
ICICI Bank Limited ICICIBANK	₹1,340	₹616.16	−54%
The PNC Financial Services Group PNC	$227.96	$159.52	−30%
Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation O39	32.14 SGD	19.80 SGD	−38%

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Tri-County Financial Group Inc · Fair Value
$81.22 +3%Fair Value
Calculator →

<a href="https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/TYFG" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener" style="display:inline-flex;align-items:center;gap:12px;box-sizing:border-box;font-family:system-ui,-apple-system,Segoe UI,Roboto,sans-serif;text-decoration:none;background:#0f1814;color:#eaf2ed;border:1px solid #2a3a30;border-radius:12px;padding:12px 16px;max-width:360px"><span style="line-height:1.35"><span style="font-size:12px;color:#9fb0a8">Tri-County Financial Group Inc · Fair Value</span><br><b style="font-size:20px">$81.22</b> <span style="color:var(--fvc-g-mitte);font-weight:700;font-size:14px">+3%</span></span><span style="font-size:11px;color:var(--fvc-g-mitte);font-weight:700;margin-left:auto;text-align:right;line-height:1.3">Fair&nbsp;Value<br>Calculator&nbsp;→</span></a>

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Tri-County Financial Group Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/TYFG

Frequently asked questions

Is Tri-County Financial Group Inc (TYFG) overvalued or undervalued?

As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $81.22 versus a price of $79.00, about +3% upside (fairly valued).

What is the fair value of TYFG?

Our model-based fair value for Tri-County Financial Group Inc is $81.22 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $79.00.

What is the quality score of TYFG?

Tri-County Financial Group Inc has a Quality Score of 57/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.

What is the price target for Tri-County Financial Group Inc (TYFG)?

Our model-based price target is the fair value of $81.22 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 4 valuation models. Cautious scenario $60.92, optimistic scenario $101.53. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.

What is the Tri-County Financial Group Inc stock forecast for 2026?

Our models put fair value at $81.22, about +3% upside versus a price of $79.00 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario $60.92, optimistic scenario $101.53. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.

What is the revenue of Tri-County Financial Group Inc (TYFG)?

Tri-County Financial Group Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $70.0M (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).

Does Tri-County Financial Group Inc pay a dividend?

Tri-County Financial Group Inc currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.30% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).

What growth is priced into Tri-County Financial Group Inc (TYFG)?

For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Tri-County Financial Group Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +19.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -2.1 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.

What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of TYFG use?

Our models discount Tri-County Financial Group Inc at 11.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.16, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.

What is a reverse DCF?

A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Tri-County Financial Group Inc that is +19.1 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.

How much growth has Tri-County Financial Group Inc (TYFG) delivered so far?

Over the past 5 years revenue at Tri-County Financial Group Inc grew -2.1 % a year. The price currently implies +19.1 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.

How fast is the sector of Tri-County Financial Group Inc (TYFG) growing?

The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Tri-County Financial Group Inc (+19.1 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.

What is the free cash flow yield of Tri-County Financial Group Inc (TYFG)?

The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 5.41 %: that much free cash flow Tri-County Financial Group Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.

What is the intrinsic value of Tri-County Financial Group Inc (TYFG)?

Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Tri-County Financial Group Inc it is $81.22 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $79.00. It is the blended result of 4 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).

Is Tri-County Financial Group Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?

As of Sep 23, 2026, TYFG trades below its calculated fair value: price $79.00, fair value $81.22, a gap of about +3% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.

Is fair value the same as the market price of TYFG?

No. The price is what the market pays today ($79.00); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($81.22). For Tri-County Financial Group Inc the two are $2.22 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.

How much is Tri-County Financial Group Inc worth?

The market values Tri-County Financial Group Inc at about $188M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $79.00; our models calculate a fair value of $81.22 per share.

What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TYFG?

Our models span a range for Tri-County Financial Group Inc: cautious scenario $60.92, base $81.22, optimistic $101.53 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $79.00). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.

What is the P/E ratio of TYFG?

Tri-County Financial Group Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 12.2 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $81.22 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.2, P/S 2.7.

How solid is the balance sheet of Tri-County Financial Group Inc (TYFG)?

Balance-sheet figures for Tri-County Financial Group Inc (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 10.1%, debt of 0.56 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 57/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.

How far is TYFG from its 52-week high?

Tri-County Financial Group Inc trades at $79.00, about 4% below its 52-week high of $82.50 and 74% above the low of $45.52 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $81.22 is for.

Which stocks are comparable to Tri-County Financial Group Inc?

From the same area (Financial Services) we also value DBS Group, China Merchants Bank Co, Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A, HDFC Bank Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.

Is Tri-County Financial Group Inc stock attractive at the current price?

The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $79.00, calculated fair value $81.22 (+3%), Quality Score 57/100, from 4 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.

How is the fair value of TYFG calculated?

We run Tri-County Financial Group Inc through 4 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $81.22, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.

Is it still worth investing in stocks now?

The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Tri-County Financial Group Inc currently trades 3 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.

What is the share price of Tri-County Financial Group Inc (TYFG)?

The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $79.00. Our model-based fair value is $81.22, about +3% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.

What should I pay attention to with Tri-County Financial Group Inc right now?

The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.

Key figures of Tri-County Financial Group Inc

How large is the market capitalisation of Tri-County Financial Group Inc (TYFG)?

The market capitalisation of Tri-County Financial Group Inc is $188M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.

What is the P/S ratio of Tri-County Financial Group Inc (TYFG)?

The price-to-sales ratio of Tri-County Financial Group Inc is 2.48 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.

What are the earnings per share of Tri-County Financial Group Inc (TYFG)?

Earnings per share at Tri-County Financial Group Inc are $6.47 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 12.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.

What is the dividend yield of Tri-County Financial Group Inc (TYFG)?

The dividend yield of Tri-County Financial Group Inc is 1.3% (payout 15.9%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.

What is the net margin of Tri-County Financial Group Inc (TYFG)?

The net margin of Tri-County Financial Group Inc is 20.3% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.

What is the return on equity of Tri-County Financial Group Inc (TYFG)?

The return on equity (ROE) of Tri-County Financial Group Inc is 10.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.

What is the EBIT return on assets of Tri-County Financial Group Inc (TYFG)?

On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Tri-County Financial Group Inc is 0.1% (avg 2y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.

What is the operating margin of Tri-County Financial Group Inc (TYFG)?

The operating margin of Tri-County Financial Group Inc is 33.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.

How fast is revenue growing at Tri-County Financial Group Inc (TYFG)?

Revenue at Tri-County Financial Group Inc is growing +22.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +4.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.

How fast are earnings growing at Tri-County Financial Group Inc (TYFG)?

Earnings per share at Tri-County Financial Group Inc are growing +75.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.

How much net debt does Tri-County Financial Group Inc (TYFG) carry?

The net debt of Tri-County Financial Group Inc is $41.6M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 4.1 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.

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