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UBS Group (UBSG) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of UBS Group CHF 19.68, price CHF 39.53, upside -50.2%, quality 57 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? Yes
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Financial Services · CH · ISIN CH0244767585

UG Broad data Sep 28, 2026

UBS Group

UBSG · SW

Stretched ValuationStrong overvaluation with only moderate quality.

!Fair value CHF 19.68 · Strongly overvalued (−50.2%)
!Quality 57/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +21.1 %/yr)
✓Solidly profitable · 17.8% net margin (TTM)
!High debt · generates free cash flow
✓2.8% dividend yield · Well covered
!Moderate moat 64/100

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

CHF 45.00 CHF 12.47 Fair Value CHF 19.68 Jul 2021 Oct 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 28, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range CHF 12.47 – CHF 45.00 · fair‑value band CHF 16.10 – CHF 21.72 · the CHF 39.53 price screens above the CHF 19.68 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 28, 2026.

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Company profile

UBS Group AG operates as a wealth manager and bank worldwide. It operates through five segments: Global Wealth Management, Personal & Corporate Banking, Asset Management, Investment Bank, and Non-Core and Legacy.

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UBS Group AG operates as a wealth manager and bank worldwide. It operates through five segments: Global Wealth Management, Personal & Corporate Banking, Asset Management, Investment Bank, and Non-Core and Legacy. The Global Wealth Management segment offers financial services, advice, and solutions; investment management, estate planning, and corporate advice services; and wealth management and banking products and services to private wealth and institutional customers. Its Personal & Corporate Banking segment provides banking, retirement, financing, investments, and strategic transactions to private, corporate, and institutional customers through its branch network and digital channels in Switzerland. The Asset Management segment offers diversified asset management services. Its Investment Bank segment provides equities, foreign exchange, precious metals, research, advisory, and capital markets services to institutional, corporate, financial sponsor, and Global Wealth Management customers, as well as focused rates and credit platform. The company also offers lending products, such as securities-based lending, mortgages, structured products, and tailored solutions; collateralized lending residential and commercial real estate, primarily against securities, residential and commercial real estate, other real assets (such as ships and aircraft), private market and hedge fund interest; and unsecured lending. The company was formerly known as UBS AG and changed its name to UBS Group AG in December 2014. UBS Group AG was founded in 1862 and is headquartered in Zurich, Switzerland.

Stock analysis

UBS Group (UBSG) currently trades at CHF 39.53, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is CHF 19.68, 50.2% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of CHF 20.24 per share, and 0 of the 6 models we run sit above the CHF 39.53 price.

Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at CHF 9.25, and 6 of the 6 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Scenario range: CHF 16.10 (bear) to CHF 21.72 (bull), the price of CHF 39.53 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 57/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

UBS Group reported revenue of $59.1B in FY2025 versus $35.0B in FY2021, a compound +14.0%/yr. Reported net income was $6.2B in FY2025, compounding −2.5%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap CHF 129B · P/E ratio 17.4 · P/S ratio 1.82 · EPS (TTM) CHF 2.27 · Dividend yield 2.8% · Net margin 10.4% · Return on equity 10.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.8%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 52 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 12% below its 52-week high and 38% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −17% fair-value upside, at −50%, UBSG screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear CHF 16.10 Fair Value CHF 19.68 Bull CHF 21.72
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (CHF 0.8847 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Residual Income CHF 18.42 CHF 19.34 CHF 21.26 76
Gordon GGM CHF 5.28 CHF 10.97 CHF 17.40 66
DDM Multi-Stage CHF 5.28 CHF 9.25 CHF 11.51 66
All 6 models by family
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM CHF 5.28 CHF 10.97 CHF 17.40 66
DDM Multi-Stage CHF 5.28 CHF 9.25 CHF 11.51 66
Multiples
P/E Multiple CHF 15.18 CHF 20.24 CHF 25.30 63
P/B Multiple CHF 19.85 CHF 26.47 CHF 33.09 55
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) CHF 11.40 CHF 15.28 CHF 22.80 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income CHF 18.42 CHF 19.34 CHF 21.26 76

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 57/100

Of which business quality 60 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 67

Profitability 22
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 55
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 97
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 43
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 48
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 78
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 62
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 63
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 98
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 87/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+28.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+21.1%
Revenue growth 25 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.7%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+4.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+1.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.8%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.1.2% vs 6.4%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.25% → 12%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)

Growth Forecast

A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+4.1%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
−4.5%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Switzerland: IMF forecast 0.6% a year to 2030, 0.8% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +3.4% a year for the price and −5.0% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)−28.3%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+2.8%
Projected 2028 (sales)+2.7%
Projected 2029 (sales)+2.6%
Projected 2030 (sales)+2.5%

UBSG screens overvalued: fair value 50% below the price. Compare with JPMorgan Chase & Co →

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Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

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Citigroup Inc C $130.80 $107.10 −18%

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CHF 19.68 −50%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "UBS Group Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/UBSG

Frequently asked questions

Is UBS Group (UBSG) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 28, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of CHF 19.68 versus a price of CHF 39.53, about −50% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of UBSG?
Our model-based fair value for UBS Group is CHF 19.68 (as of Sep 28, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: CHF 39.53.
What is the quality score of UBSG?
UBS Group has a Quality Score of 57/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for UBS Group (UBSG)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of CHF 19.68 (as of Sep 28, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario CHF 16.10, optimistic scenario CHF 21.72. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the UBS Group stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at CHF 19.68, about −50% upside versus a price of CHF 39.53 (overvalued). Cautious scenario CHF 16.10, optimistic scenario CHF 21.72. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of UBS Group (UBSG)?
UBS Group reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about CHF 51.3B (latest available figure, as of Sep 28, 2026).
Does UBS Group pay a dividend?
UBS Group currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.78% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 28, 2026).
What growth is priced into UBS Group (UBSG)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, UBS Group would have to grow free cash flow by +4.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +12.7 % per year. As of Sep 28, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of UBSG use?
Our models discount UBS Group at 8.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.83, country premium for Switzerland. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For UBS Group that is +4.1 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has UBS Group (UBSG) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at UBS Group grew +12.7 % a year. The price currently implies +4.1 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of UBS Group (UBSG) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into UBS Group (+4.1 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of UBS Group (UBSG)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 11.94 %: that much free cash flow UBS Group produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of UBS Group (UBSG)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For UBS Group it is CHF 19.68 per share (as of Sep 28, 2026), against a price of CHF 39.53. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is UBS Group stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 28, 2026, UBSG trades above its calculated fair value: price CHF 39.53, fair value CHF 19.68, a gap of about −50% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of UBSG?
No. The price is what the market pays today (CHF 39.53); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (CHF 19.68). For UBS Group the two are CHF 19.85 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is UBS Group worth?
The market values UBS Group at about CHF 129B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 28, 2026). Per share that is CHF 39.53; our models calculate a fair value of CHF 19.68 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about UBSG?
Our models span a range for UBS Group: cautious scenario CHF 16.10, base CHF 19.68, optimistic CHF 21.72 per share (as of Sep 28, 2026, price CHF 39.53). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How far is UBSG from its 52-week high?
UBS Group trades at CHF 39.53, about 12% below its 52-week high of CHF 45.00 and 38% above the low of CHF 28.71 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of CHF 19.68 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to UBS Group?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value JPMorgan Chase & Co, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Limited, China Construction Bank Corporation, Bank of America Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is UBS Group stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 28, 2026: price CHF 39.53, calculated fair value CHF 19.68 (−50%), Quality Score 57/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of UBSG calculated?
We run UBS Group through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of CHF 19.68, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. UBS Group itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of UBS Group (UBSG)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was CHF 39.53. Our model-based fair value is CHF 19.68, about −50% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with UBS Group right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (CHF 21.72). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (57/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of UBS Group (UBSG) come from?
Earnings per share at UBS Group grew +12.6 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +10.4 %, EBIT margin +0.9 %, tax rate −0.1 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +1.2 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of UBS Group

How large is the market capitalisation of UBS Group (UBSG)?
The market capitalisation of UBS Group is CHF 129B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/E ratio of UBS Group (UBSG)?
The price-to-earnings ratio of UBS Group is 17.4. Price to earnings: how many years of current profit you pay for the stock. A P/E of 10 means ten years of profit.
What is the P/S ratio of UBS Group (UBSG)?
The price-to-sales ratio of UBS Group is 1.82 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of UBS Group (UBSG)?
Earnings per share at UBS Group are CHF 2.27 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 17.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of UBS Group (UBSG)?
The dividend yield of UBS Group is 2.8% (payout 48.5%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of UBS Group (UBSG)?
The net margin of UBS Group is 10.4% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of UBS Group (UBSG)?
The return on equity (ROE) of UBS Group is 10.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of UBS Group (UBSG)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of UBS Group is 0.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of UBS Group (UBSG)?
The operating margin of UBS Group is 31.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at UBS Group (UBSG)?
Revenue at UBS Group is growing +13.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +17.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at UBS Group (UBSG)?
Earnings per share at UBS Group are growing +84.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does UBS Group (UBSG) carry?
The net debt of UBS Group is CHF 135B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 8.7 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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