UBS Group (UBSN) Fair Value & Analysis
Financial Services · MX · Market cap 3.1T MXN
Fair value as of: Jul 16, 2026
From 23 valuation models · updated 22 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 16, 2026, revised from 539.24 MXN to 534.84 MXN (−0.8%) since Jun 26, 2026. Share price +31.3% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 43% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (668.73 MXN). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (61/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 281.76 MXN – 939.75 MXN · fair‑value band 401.13 MXN – 668.73 MXN · the 939.75 MXN price screens above the 534.84 MXN fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
Analysis
UBS Group (UBSN) currently trades at 939.75 MXN, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 534.84 MXN, implying the stock looks roughly 43.1% overvalued today. We read business quality at 61/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, UBS Group generated revenue of 51.3B MXN at a net margin of 17.8%. Revenue grew 13.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 10.2%. Net debt stands at 119B MXN. Fundamentals as of Jul 16, 2026
Our scenario range runs from 401.13 MXN (bear case) to 668.73 MXN (bull case); at 939.75 MXN, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 55% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at 16% fair-value upside, at -43%, UBSN screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 23 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (750.90 MXN) versus Growth DCF (208.98 MXN). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 16, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 57 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 76
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
UBS Group AG operates as a wealth manager and bank worldwide. It operates through five segments: Global Wealth Management, Personal & Corporate Banking, Asset Management, Investment Bank, and Non-Core and Legacy.
Full company description
UBS Group AG operates as a wealth manager and bank worldwide. It operates through five segments: Global Wealth Management, Personal & Corporate Banking, Asset Management, Investment Bank, and Non-Core and Legacy. The Global Wealth Management segment offers financial services, advice, and solutions; investment management, estate planning, and corporate advice services; and wealth management and banking products and services to private wealth and institutional customers. Its Personal & Corporate Banking segment provides banking, retirement, financing, investments, and strategic transactions to private, corporate, and institutional customers through its branch network and digital channels in Switzerland. The Asset Management segment offers diversified asset management services. Its Investment Bank segment provides equities, foreign exchange, precious metals, research, advisory, and capital markets services to institutional, corporate, financial sponsor, and Global Wealth Management customers, as well as focused rates and credit platform. The company also offers lending products, such as securities-based lending, mortgages, structured products, and tailored solutions; collateralized lending residential and commercial real estate, primarily against securities, residential and commercial real estate, other real assets (such as ships and aircraft), private market and hedge fund interest; and unsecured lending. The company was formerly known as UBS AG and changed its name to UBS Group AG in December 2014. UBS Group AG was founded in 1862 and is headquartered in Zurich, Switzerland.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
UBS Group reported revenue of 47.3B MXN in FY2025 versus 35.4B MXN in FY2021, a compound +7.5%/yr. Reported net income was 7.8B MXN in FY2025, compounding +1.0%/yr from FY2021.
UBSN screens 43% overvalued. Compare with JPMorgan Chase & Co →
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Banks - Diversified stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 16, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| JPMorgan Chase & Co JPM | $341.10 | $278.99 | -18% |
| Bank of America Corporation BAC | $59.67 | $55.89 | -6% |
| China Construction Bank Corporation 601939 | ¥10.16 | ¥17.20 | +69% |
| Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Limited 601398 | ¥7.50 | ¥13.44 | +79% |
| HSBC Holdings HSBC | $100.52 | $84.67 | -16% |
| Agricultural Bank of China Limited 601288 | ¥6.37 | ¥11.85 | +86% |
| Royal Bank of Canada RY | C$305.74 | C$190.48 | -38% |
| Bank of China Limited 601988 | ¥5.88 | ¥9.80 | +67% |
| Wells Fargo & Company WFCS | C$23.58 | C$27.40 | +16% |
| Banco Santander, S.A SAN | 51.02 PLN | 55.60 PLN | +9% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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