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UBS Group (UBSN) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 21, 2026: fair value of UBS Group MXN 419, price MXN 870, upside -51.8%, quality 52 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? Yes
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Financial Services · MX · ISIN CH0244767585

UG Broad data Sep 29, 2026

UBS Group

UBSN · MX

Stretched ValuationStrong overvaluation with only moderate quality.

!Fair value 419.26 MXN · Strongly overvalued (−51.8%)
!Quality 52/100
✓Healthy Growth (revenue 5y +7.4 %/yr)
✓Solidly profitable · 17.8% net margin (TTM)
!High debt · generates free cash flow
✓0.1% dividend yield · Well covered
!Moderate moat 62/100

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

939.75 MXN 281.76 MXN Fair Value 419.26 MXN Apr 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range 281.76 MXN – 939.75 MXN · fair‑value band 397.67 MXN – 467.24 MXN · the 869.77 MXN price screens above the 419.26 MXN fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.

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Company profile

UBS Group AG operates as a wealth manager and bank worldwide. It operates through five segments: Global Wealth Management, Personal & Corporate Banking, Asset Management, Investment Bank, and Non-Core and Legacy.

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UBS Group AG operates as a wealth manager and bank worldwide. It operates through five segments: Global Wealth Management, Personal & Corporate Banking, Asset Management, Investment Bank, and Non-Core and Legacy. The Global Wealth Management segment offers financial services, advice, and solutions; investment management, estate planning, and corporate advice services; and wealth management and banking products and services to private wealth and institutional customers. Its Personal & Corporate Banking segment provides banking, retirement, financing, investments, and strategic transactions to private, corporate, and institutional customers through its branch network and digital channels in Switzerland. The Asset Management segment offers diversified asset management services. Its Investment Bank segment provides equities, foreign exchange, precious metals, research, advisory, and capital markets services to institutional, corporate, financial sponsor, and Global Wealth Management customers, as well as focused rates and credit platform. The company also offers lending products, such as securities-based lending, mortgages, structured products, and tailored solutions; collateralized lending residential and commercial real estate, primarily against securities, residential and commercial real estate, other real assets (such as ships and aircraft), private market and hedge fund interest; and unsecured lending. The company was formerly known as UBS AG and changed its name to UBS Group AG in December 2014. UBS Group AG was founded in 1862 and is headquartered in Zurich, Switzerland.

Stock analysis

UBS Group (UBSN) currently trades at 869.77 MXN, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 419.26 MXN, 51.8% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of 561.91 MXN per share, and 0 of the 6 models we run sit above the 869.77 MXN price.

Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at 243.54 MXN, and 6 of the 6 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Scenario range: 397.67 MXN (bear) to 467.24 MXN (bull), the price of 869.77 MXN sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 52/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.

Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.

UBS Group reported revenue of $47.3B in FY2025 versus $35.4B in FY2021, a compound +7.5%/yr. Reported net income was $7.8B in FY2025, compounding +1.0%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap 3.1T MXN (≈ $170B) · P/E ratio 17.8 · P/S ratio 2.92 · EPS (TTM) 48.91 MXN · Dividend yield 0.1% · Net margin 16.4% · Return on equity 10.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.7%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 7% below its 52-week high and 29% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −17% fair-value upside, at −52%, UBSN screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear 397.67 MXN Fair Value 419.26 MXN Bull 467.24 MXN
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (36.15 MXN per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Residual Income 427.32 MXN 461.86 MXN 540.00 MXN 76
Gordon GGM 146.45 MXN 304.49 MXN 483.04 MXN 66
DDM Multi-Stage 146.45 MXN 243.54 MXN 319.57 MXN 66
All 6 models by family
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM 146.45 MXN 304.49 MXN 483.04 MXN 66
DDM Multi-Stage 146.45 MXN 243.54 MXN 319.57 MXN 66
Multiples
P/E Multiple 421.43 MXN 561.91 MXN 702.39 MXN 63
P/B Multiple 527.15 MXN 702.86 MXN 878.58 MXN 55
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) 251.02 MXN 336.37 MXN 502.04 MXN 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income 427.32 MXN 461.86 MXN 540.00 MXN 76

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 52/100

Of which business quality 57 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 67

Profitability 27
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 33
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 98
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 43
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 44
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 65
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 62
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 80
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 93
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 80/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+4.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +4.4% a year
Revenue growth 11 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.9%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+6.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+6.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.1%
Profit margin 2014 to 2019 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.12% → 21%

Growth Forecast

A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+7.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
−0.1%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in USD, USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +5.2% a year for the price and −2.4% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)−10.4%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+2.8%
Projected 2028 (sales)+2.7%
Projected 2029 (sales)+2.6%
Projected 2030 (sales)+2.5%

UBSN screens overvalued: fair value 52% below the price. Compare with JPMorgan Chase & Co →

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Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

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Royal Bank of Canada RY $200.95 $130.85 −35%
Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group MUFG $23.37 $14.86 −36%
Wells Fargo & Company WFC $80.05 $66.44 −17%
Citigroup Inc C $130.80 $107.10 −18%

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UBS Group · Fair Value
419.26 MXN −52%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "UBS Group Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/UBSN

Frequently asked questions

Is UBS Group (UBSN) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 29, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 419.26 MXN versus the last price from Sep 21, 2026 of 869.77 MXN, about −52% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of UBSN?
Our model-based fair value for UBS Group is 419.26 MXN (as of Sep 29, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. Last price (from Sep 21, 2026): 869.77 MXN.
What is the quality score of UBSN?
UBS Group has a Quality Score of 52/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for UBS Group (UBSN)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 419.26 MXN (as of Sep 29, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario 397.67 MXN, optimistic scenario 467.24 MXN. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the UBS Group stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 419.26 MXN, about −52% upside versus the last price from Sep 21, 2026 of 869.77 MXN (overvalued). Cautious scenario 397.67 MXN, optimistic scenario 467.24 MXN. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of UBS Group (UBSN)?
UBS Group reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $51.3B (latest available figure, as of Sep 29, 2026).
Does UBS Group pay a dividend?
UBS Group currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.13% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 29, 2026).
What growth is priced into UBS Group (UBSN)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, UBS Group would have to grow free cash flow by +7.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +7.4 % per year. As of Sep 29, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of UBSN use?
Our models discount UBS Group at 11.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.83, country premium for Mexico. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For UBS Group that is +7.7 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has UBS Group (UBSN) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at UBS Group grew +7.4 % a year. The price currently implies +7.7 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of UBS Group (UBSN) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into UBS Group (+7.7 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of UBS Group (UBSN)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 13.15 %: that much free cash flow UBS Group produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of UBS Group (UBSN)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For UBS Group it is 419.26 MXN per share (as of Sep 29, 2026), against a price of 869.77 MXN. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is UBS Group stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 29, 2026, UBSN trades above its calculated fair value: price 869.77 MXN, fair value 419.26 MXN, a gap of about −52% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of UBSN?
No. The price is what the market pays today (869.77 MXN); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (419.26 MXN). For UBS Group the two are 450.51 MXN per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is UBS Group worth?
The market values UBS Group at about 3.1T MXN (market capitalisation, as of Sep 29, 2026). Per share that is 869.77 MXN; our models calculate a fair value of 419.26 MXN per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about UBSN?
Our models span a range for UBS Group: cautious scenario 397.67 MXN, base 419.26 MXN, optimistic 467.24 MXN per share (as of Sep 29, 2026, price 869.77 MXN). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How far is UBSN from its 52-week high?
UBS Group trades at 869.77 MXN, about 7% below its 52-week high of 939.75 MXN and 29% above the low of 672.62 MXN (as of Sep 21, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 419.26 MXN is for.
Which stocks are comparable to UBS Group?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value JPMorgan Chase & Co, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Limited, China Construction Bank Corporation, Bank of America Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is UBS Group stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 29, 2026: price 869.77 MXN, calculated fair value 419.26 MXN (−52%), Quality Score 52/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of UBSN calculated?
We run UBS Group through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 419.26 MXN, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. UBS Group itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of UBS Group (UBSN)?
The latest price we hold is from Sep 21, 2026 and stands at 869.77 MXN. Our model-based fair value is 419.26 MXN, about −52% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with UBS Group right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (467.24 MXN). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (52/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.

Key figures of UBS Group

How large is the market capitalisation of UBS Group (UBSN)?
The market capitalisation of UBS Group is 3.1T MXN (≈ $170B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/E ratio of UBS Group (UBSN)?
The price-to-earnings ratio of UBS Group is 17.8. Price to earnings: how many years of current profit you pay for the stock. A P/E of 10 means ten years of profit.
What is the P/S ratio of UBS Group (UBSN)?
The price-to-sales ratio of UBS Group is 2.92 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of UBS Group (UBSN)?
Earnings per share at UBS Group are 48.91 MXN (price ÷ EPS = P/E 17.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of UBS Group (UBSN)?
The dividend yield of UBS Group is 0.1% (payout 2.2%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of UBS Group (UBSN)?
The net margin of UBS Group is 16.4% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of UBS Group (UBSN)?
The return on equity (ROE) of UBS Group is 10.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of UBS Group (UBSN)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of UBS Group is 0.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of UBS Group (UBSN)?
The operating margin of UBS Group is 31.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at UBS Group (UBSN)?
Revenue at UBS Group is growing +13.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +12.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at UBS Group (UBSN)?
Earnings per share at UBS Group are growing +84.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does UBS Group (UBSN) carry?
The net debt of UBS Group is $119B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 6.1 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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