UCB SA (UCB) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 26, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of UCB SA stock €179, price €270, upside -33.7%, quality 80 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Fair value above price?No
Good quality?Yes
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 25, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €64.56 – €284.13 · fair‑value band €122.23 – €223.94 · the €270.30 price screens above the €179.16 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 25, 2026.
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UCB SA, a biopharmaceutical company, develops products and solutions for people with neurology and immunology diseases worldwide.
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The company offers Cimzia for ankylosing spondylitis (AS), axial spondyloarthritis, Crohn's disease, non-radiographic axial spondyloarthritis, plaque psoriasis, psoriatic arthritis, polyarticular juvenile idiopathic arthritis, and rheumatoid arthritis; Vimpat, Keppra, and Briviact for epilepsy; and Neupro for Parkinson's disease and restless legs syndrome.
It also provides Nayzilam, a nasal spray rescue treatment for epilepsy seizure clusters; and Zyrtec and Xyzal for allergies.
In addition, the company offers Evenity for the treatment of osteoporosis in postmenopausal women; Bimzelx to treat plaque psoriasis, psoriatic arthritis, hidradenitis suppurativa, and axial spondyloarthritis; Fintepla for the treatment of Dravet and Lennox-Gastaut syndrome; and RYSTIGGO and ZILBRYSQ to treat people living with generalized myasthenia gravis.
Further, it develops KYGEVVI (doxecitine/doxribtimine) for thymidine kinase 2 deficiency disorder; fenfluramine to treat CDKL5 deficiency disorder, and RETT-Syndrome; dapirolizumab pegol for systemic lupus erythematosus; STACCATO alprazolam for treating stereotypical prolonged seizures; bepranemab to treat Alzheimer's disease; and UCB9741 for atopic dermatitis, non cystic fibrosis bronchiectasis, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.
Additionally, it engages in the contract manufacturing activities. The company was incorporated in 1925 and is headquartered in Brussels, Belgium.
Stock analysis
UCB SA (UCB) currently trades at €270.30, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €179.16, 33.7% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of €194.31 per share, and 0 of the 26 models we run sit above the €270.30 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at €22.09, and 26 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: €122.23 (bear) to €223.94 (bull), the price of €270.30 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 80/100 (high quality), in the Healthcare sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
UCB SA reported revenue of €7.7B in FY2025 versus €5.8B in FY2021, a compound +7.6%/yr. Reported net income was €1.6B in FY2025, compounding +10.2%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap €51.4B Large · P/E ratio 23.9 · P/S ratio 6.03 · EPS (TTM) €11.32 · Dividend yield 0.4% · Net margin 25.7% · Return on equity 20.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 6.6%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 81 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 5% below its 52-week high and 37% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at 2% fair-value upside, at −34%, UCB screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear€122.23Fair Value €179.16Bull€223.94
Price €270.30 · Upside -33.7%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (€8.44 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.85/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+25.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +7.2% a year
Revenue growth 25 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.2%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+11.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+10.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.4%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.14.2% vs 19.6%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.18% → 26%
2025 sits 282% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+11.9%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+9.8%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +9.5% a year for the price and +7.5% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (99 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
AI conclusion: Patent-protected margins and cash flow deliver a moderate moat in biotechnology while limited differentiation in organization and human capital plus patent cliffs constrain resilience.
Main risk: Biosimilars could enter after key patents on Cimzia expire and reduce sales volumes as well as margins on legacy immunology products.
Bull case: Successful commercial ramp of newer assets like Bimzelx could offset any erosion from legacy products and sustain growth in immunology.
Bear case: If biosimilar competition materialises faster than expected and new launches underperform, revenues from key products could decline sharply without adequate replacement.
UCB is dedicating its new U.S. biologics manufacturing campus in Georgia, a roughly two-billion-dollar project that uses AI and automation to produce complex medicines and build supply chain resilience. The investment supports long-term patient access while the company advances its immunology pipeline through recent acquisitions. Our models currently see the stock as overvalued. Will the efficiency gains from this facility offset the capital commitment and pricing pressures, or will they add to near-term costs?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Biotechnology · 600 stocks
Beats the industry median on 12/15 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score80 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−33.7% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)20.6% · Top 25%
Return on assets8.6% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)25.7% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)33.3% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)22.5% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)0.4% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.19× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Biotechnology median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)23.9× · Cheaper than median
P/B4.73× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months)6.03× · Cheaper than median
Price / free cash flow27.3× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA16.3× · Cheaper than median
PEG1.11× · Cheaper than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 0
PAST (return on equity)82· sector 0
HEALTH (low debt)91· sector 97
DIVIDEND (yield)8· sector 24
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "UCB SA Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/UCB.BR
Frequently asked questions
Is UCB SA (UCB) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 25, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €179.16 versus a price of €270.30, about −34% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of UCB?
Our model-based fair value for UCB SA is €179.16 (as of Oct 25, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €270.30.
What is the quality score of UCB?
UCB SA has a Quality Score of 80/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for UCB SA (UCB)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €179.16 (as of Oct 25, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario €122.23, optimistic scenario €223.94. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the UCB SA stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €179.16, about −34% upside versus a price of €270.30 (overvalued). Cautious scenario €122.23, optimistic scenario €223.94. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of UCB SA (UCB)?
UCB SA reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €8.5B (latest available figure, as of Oct 25, 2026).
Does UCB SA pay a dividend?
UCB SA currently shows a dividend yield of 0.38% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 25, 2026).
What growth is priced into UCB SA (UCB)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, UCB SA would have to grow free cash flow by +11.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +7.7 % per year. As of Oct 25, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of UCB use?
Our models discount UCB SA at 8.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.19, country premium for Belgium. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For UCB SA that is +11.9 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has UCB SA (UCB) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at UCB SA grew +7.7 % a year. The price currently implies +11.9 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of UCB SA (UCB) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +5.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into UCB SA (+11.9 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of UCB SA (UCB)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.66 %: that much free cash flow UCB SA produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of UCB SA (UCB)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For UCB SA it is €179.16 per share (as of Oct 25, 2026), against a price of €270.30. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is UCB SA stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 25, 2026, UCB trades above its calculated fair value: price €270.30, fair value €179.16, a gap of about −34% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of UCB?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€270.30); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€179.16). For UCB SA the two are €91.14 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is UCB SA worth?
The market values UCB SA at about €51.4B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 25, 2026). Per share that is €270.30; our models calculate a fair value of €179.16 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about UCB?
Our models span a range for UCB SA: cautious scenario €122.23, base €179.16, optimistic €223.94 per share (as of Oct 25, 2026, price €270.30). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of UCB?
UCB SA trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 23.9 (as of Oct 25, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €179.16 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.1, P/B 4.7, P/S 6.0, EV/EBITDA 16.3.
What is the PEG ratio of UCB?
The PEG ratio of UCB SA is 1.11 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Oct 25, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of UCB SA (UCB)?
Balance-sheet figures for UCB SA (as of Oct 25, 2026): return on equity 20.6%, debt of 0.19 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 80/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is UCB from its 52-week high?
UCB SA trades at €270.30, about 5% below its 52-week high of €284.13 and 37% above the low of €197.90 (as of Oct 26, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €179.16 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to UCB SA?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc, CSL Limited, argenx SE, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is UCB SA stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 25, 2026: price €270.30, calculated fair value €179.16 (−34%), Quality Score 80/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of UCB calculated?
We run UCB SA through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €179.16, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 12.7 % above its aggregate fair value. UCB SA itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of UCB SA (UCB)?
The closing price on Oct 26, 2026 was €270.30. Our model-based fair value is €179.16, about −34% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with UCB SA right now?
A high-quality business (quality 80/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety. The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (€223.94). The favourable scenario is already priced in. A fairly wide model range (€122.23 to €223.94) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of UCB SA (UCB) come from?
Earnings per share at UCB SA grew +14.0 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +5.8 %, EBIT margin +3.2 %, tax rate +1.8 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +2.6 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of UCB SA
How large is the market capitalisation of UCB SA (UCB)?
The market capitalisation of UCB SA is €51.4B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of UCB SA (UCB)?
The price-to-sales ratio of UCB SA is 6.03 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of UCB SA (UCB)?
Earnings per share at UCB SA are €11.32 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 23.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of UCB SA (UCB)?
The dividend yield of UCB SA is 0.4% (payout 9.0%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of UCB SA (UCB)?
The net margin of UCB SA is 25.7% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of UCB SA (UCB)?
The return on equity (ROE) of UCB SA is 20.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of UCB SA (UCB)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of UCB SA is 6.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of UCB SA (UCB)?
The operating margin of UCB SA is 33.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at UCB SA (UCB)?
Revenue at UCB SA is growing +22.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +12.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at UCB SA (UCB)?
Earnings per share at UCB SA are growing +135% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does UCB SA (UCB) hold?
UCB SA holds more cash than debt, €6.0M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Broad data
Oct 25, 2026