Ultra Clean Holdings Inc (UCTT) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 11, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Ultra Clean Holdings Inc stock $18.14, price $49.63, that is 63.4% below the price, quality 48 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 12 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 11, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $17.84 – $142.59 · fair‑value band $8.38 – $32.28 · the $49.63 price screens above the $18.14 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 3 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 11, 2026.
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Ultra Clean Holdings, Inc. develops and supplies critical subsystems, components and parts, and cleaning and analytical services for the semiconductor industry in the United States and internationally.
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The company offers outsourced solutions for the development, design, component sourcing and cleaning, prototyping, engineering, and manufacturing and testing of advanced systems.
It also provides a range of gas delivery solutions, such as precision thermal products, valves, connectors, industrial process connectors and valves, pneumatic actuators, manifolds and safety solutions, hoses, pressure gauges, gas lines, and component heaters, as well as complex weldments.
In addition, the company offers assemblies, including gas and fluid delivery solutions, wafer transport systems, mechatronic assemblies, process modules, and sub-fab process equipment support racks; weldments and frames with exacting standards; heaters, sensors, and controllers for precise temperature control; integrated device manufacturers and OEMs validated process tool chamber parts cleaning and coating services; and tool part process optimization solutions, analytical verification of process tool chamber part cleaning effectiveness and micro contamination analysis of tool parts, wafers and depositions, chemicals, cleanroom materials, deionized water, and airborne molecular contamination.
It primarily serves customers in the semiconductor capital equipment and semiconductor integrated device manufacturing industries, as well as display, consumer, medical, energy, industrial, and research equipment industries. The company was founded in 1991 and is headquartered in Hayward, California.
Stock analysis
Ultra Clean Holdings Inc (UCTT) currently trades at $49.63, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $18.14, 63% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $12.15 per share, and 0 of the 12 models we run sit above the $49.63 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $6.51, and 12 of the 12 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: $8.38 (bear) to $32.28 (bull), the price of $49.63 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 48/100 (below-average quality), in the Technology sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Ultra Clean Holdings Inc reported revenue of $2.1B in FY2025 versus $2.1B in FY2021, a compound −0.6%/yr. Reported net income was −$181M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $2.5B Mid · P/E ratio 85.6 · P/S ratio 1.01 · EPS (TTM) $0.5800 · Net margin 1.1% · Return on equity 4.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.9% (5-year average) · Operating margin 7.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 23 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 65% below its 52-week high and 129% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −15% fair-value upside, at −63%, UCTT screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely ($0.6600 to $44.57). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bear$8.38Fair Value $18.14Bull$32.28
Price $49.63 · Downside -63.4%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.5021 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
FCF DCF$4.42$10.02$19.5475
Growth DCF$4.19$9.07$16.1475
5Y EBITDA Exit$20.06$44.57$76.9972
All 12 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF$4.42$10.02$19.5475
5Y Revenue Exit$4.93$11.87$21.5869
5Y EBITDA Exit$20.06$44.57$76.9972
10Y Revenue Exit$4.34$10.46$20.3962
10Y EBITDA Exit$13.62$32.17$63.2164
Earnings-Based
EPV$0.2000$0.6600$1.0468
Multiples
EV/EBIT$6.36$12.15$17.9563
EV/EBITDA$24.68$36.58$48.4766
EV/Revenuen/a$1.54$5.3050
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)$4.86$6.51$9.7254
Growth DCF
Growth DCF$4.19$9.07$16.1475
Economic Profit
ROIC Compounder$0.2000$0.6600$1.0467
The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for a cyclical trough year.
In the last 6 months, 5 officers or directors sold shares worth $5.9M and none bought.
SaleBrian E HardingChief Accounting Officer3× since May 5, 2026: 24,825 shares, avg. $94.01$2.3MJul 2, 2026
SaleSheri SavageCFO2× since Jun 4, 2026: 30,187 shares, avg. $89.46$2.7MJun 4, 202610b5-1 plan
SalePaul Yoonku ChoGeneral Counsel and Secretary2× since May 8, 2026: 2,944 shares, avg. $87.69$258,145Jun 2, 2026
SaleEmily M LiggettDirector8,198 shares at $92.18$755,692May 27, 2026
SaleJeffrey L. McKibbenChief Information Officer2× since May 8, 2026: 6,705 shares, avg. $86.81$582,035May 14, 2026
SaleJamie J. PalfreySVP, Global Human Resources8,691 shares at $79.73$692,933May 5, 2026
SaleChristopher S CookPresident, Products Division2× since Apr 30, 2026: 23,381 shares, avg. $74.65$1.7MMay 4, 2026
SaleClarence L GrangerDirector30,000 shares at $75.30$2.3MMay 1, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleDavid T IbnaleDirector23,500 shares at $26.63$625,805Dec 3, 2025
Plus 21 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−2.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−4.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +15.9% a year
Revenue growth 24 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+14.7%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
2.8% (2019) → 4.3% (2024)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+58.9%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+32.9%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
Calculated on free cash flow for fiscal year 2025. Over the last twelve months it was negative, so the figure above is uncertain.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +55.2% a year for the price and +29.8% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (98 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
AI conclusion: Limited durable advantage in a competitive sector with negative net income and elevated debt forms the core weakness, while fresh board expertise supports execution of scaled clean-room operations.
Main risk: Heavy exposure to a handful of dominant customers risks sharp drops in equipment demand and revenue if order patterns shift.
Ultra Clean recently added a former National Instruments CEO with decades of global tech and manufacturing leadership to its board to support execution of UCT 3.0. Our models currently see the stock as overvalued even as the company ramps clean-room capacity toward a multi-billion revenue run rate driven by AI-related equipment demand. Will the fresh strategic input on scaling operations deliver more upside than the exposure to a handful of dominant customers creates downside?
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Semiconductor Equipment & Materials · 244 stocks
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Is Ultra Clean Holdings Inc (UCTT) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 11, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $18.14 versus a price of $49.63, about 63% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of UCTT?
Our model-based fair value for Ultra Clean Holdings Inc is $18.14 (as of Nov 11, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $49.63.
What is the quality score of UCTT?
Ultra Clean Holdings Inc has a Quality Score of 48/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Ultra Clean Holdings Inc (UCTT)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $18.14 (as of Nov 11, 2026) from 12 valuation models. Cautious scenario $8.38, optimistic scenario $32.28. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Ultra Clean Holdings Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $18.14, about 63% lower versus a price of $49.63 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $8.38, optimistic scenario $32.28. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Ultra Clean Holdings Inc (UCTT)?
Ultra Clean Holdings Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $2.4B (latest available figure, as of Nov 11, 2026).
What growth is priced into Ultra Clean Holdings Inc (UCTT)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Ultra Clean Holdings Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +58.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +8.0 % per year. Calculated on free cash flow for fiscal year 2025. Over the last twelve months it was negative, so the figure above is uncertain. As of Nov 11, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of UCTT use?
Our models discount Ultra Clean Holdings Inc at 11.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 1.86, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Ultra Clean Holdings Inc that is +58.9 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (11.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Ultra Clean Holdings Inc (UCTT) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Ultra Clean Holdings Inc grew +8.0 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +58.9 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Ultra Clean Holdings Inc (UCTT) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +11.5 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Ultra Clean Holdings Inc (+58.9 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Ultra Clean Holdings Inc (UCTT)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 0.66 % in the last fiscal year (free cash flow was negative over the last twelve months): that much free cash flow Ultra Clean Holdings Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Ultra Clean Holdings Inc (UCTT)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Ultra Clean Holdings Inc it is $18.14 per share (as of Nov 11, 2026), against a price of $49.63. It is the blended result of 12 valuation models in 6 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit).
Is Ultra Clean Holdings Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 11, 2026, UCTT trades above its calculated fair value: price $49.63, fair value $18.14, a gap of about −63% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of UCTT?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($49.63); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($18.14). For Ultra Clean Holdings Inc the two are $31.49 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Ultra Clean Holdings Inc worth?
The market values Ultra Clean Holdings Inc at about $2.5B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 11, 2026). Per share that is $49.63; our models calculate a fair value of $18.14 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about UCTT?
Our models span a range for Ultra Clean Holdings Inc: cautious scenario $8.38, base $18.14, optimistic $32.28 per share (as of Nov 11, 2026, price $49.63). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of UCTT?
Ultra Clean Holdings Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 85.6 (as of Nov 11, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $18.14 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 7 fiscal years (2016 to 2024), reported earnings: 21.3. Other multiples: PEG 0.3, P/B 3.5, P/S 1.0, EV/EBITDA 14.4.
What is the PEG ratio of UCTT?
The PEG ratio of Ultra Clean Holdings Inc is 0.25 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 11, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Ultra Clean Holdings Inc (UCTT)?
Balance-sheet figures for Ultra Clean Holdings Inc (as of Nov 11, 2026): return on equity 4.7%, debt of 0.66 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 48/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is UCTT from its 52-week high?
Ultra Clean Holdings Inc trades at $49.63, about 65% below its 52-week high of $142.59 and 129% above the low of $21.65 (as of Nov 11, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $18.14 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Ultra Clean Holdings Inc?
From the same area (Technology) we also value ASML Holding, Applied Materials, Inc, Lam Research Corporation, KLA Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Ultra Clean Holdings Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 11, 2026: price $49.63, calculated fair value $18.14 (−63%), Quality Score 48/100, from 12 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of UCTT calculated?
We run Ultra Clean Holdings Inc through 12 models from 6 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $18.14 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.0% above its aggregate fair value. Ultra Clean Holdings Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Ultra Clean Holdings Inc (UCTT)?
The closing price on Nov 11, 2026 was $49.63. Our model-based fair value is $18.14, about 63% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Ultra Clean Holdings Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($32.28). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (48/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The model range is unusually wide ($8.38 to $32.28). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Key figures of Ultra Clean Holdings Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Ultra Clean Holdings Inc (UCTT)?
The market capitalisation of Ultra Clean Holdings Inc is $2.5B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Ultra Clean Holdings Inc (UCTT)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Ultra Clean Holdings Inc is 1.01 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Ultra Clean Holdings Inc (UCTT)?
Earnings per share at Ultra Clean Holdings Inc are $0.5800 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 85.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Ultra Clean Holdings Inc (UCTT)?
The net margin of Ultra Clean Holdings Inc is 1.1% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Ultra Clean Holdings Inc (UCTT)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Ultra Clean Holdings Inc is 4.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Ultra Clean Holdings Inc (UCTT)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Ultra Clean Holdings Inc is 4.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Ultra Clean Holdings Inc (UCTT)?
The operating margin of Ultra Clean Holdings Inc is 7.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Ultra Clean Holdings Inc (UCTT)?
Revenue at Ultra Clean Holdings Inc is growing +48.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg −4.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Ultra Clean Holdings Inc (UCTT)?
Earnings per share at Ultra Clean Holdings Inc are growing −40.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Ultra Clean Holdings Inc (UCTT) carry?
The net debt of Ultra Clean Holdings Inc is $499M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 33.9 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Thin data
Nov 11, 2026