Ugro Capital Limited (UGROCAP) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 1, 2026: fair value of Ugro Capital Limited ₹107, price ₹82.35, upside +30.2%, quality 32 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 2, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ₹80.29 – ₹315.45 · fair‑value band ₹94.81 – ₹107.21 · the ₹82.35 price screens below the ₹107.21 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 2, 2026.
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UGRO Capital Limited, a non-banking financial company, engages in the lending business in India. The company offers business loans to healthcare, education, chemicals, food processing/FMCG, hospitality, electrical equipment and components, auto components, textile, micro enterprises, and light engineering sectors.
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UGRO Capital Limited, a non-banking financial company, engages in the lending business in India. The company offers business loans to healthcare, education, chemicals, food processing/FMCG, hospitality, electrical equipment and components, auto components, textile, micro enterprises, and light engineering sectors. It also provides lending services for enterprise mortgages, school funding programs, machinery and equipment financing, and supply chain finance. In addition, it offers embedded finance; retailer and rooftop solar financing; electric vehicle financing; and loans against property and bank guarantee services. The company was formerly known as Chokhani Securities Limited and changed its name to UGRO Capital Limited in September 2018. The company was incorporated in 1993 and is based in Mumbai, India.
Stock analysis
Ugro Capital Limited (UGROCAP) currently trades at ₹82.35, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ₹107.21, implying the stock looks roughly 23.2% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Earnings-Based group reads highest at a median of ₹400.38 per share, and 6 of the 7 models we run sit above the ₹82.35 price.
Bear case: the DCF Models group reads lowest at ₹48.43, and 1 of the 7 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: ₹94.81 (bear) to ₹107.21 (bull), the price of ₹82.35 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 32/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Ugro Capital Limited reported revenue of ₹14.7B in FY2026 versus ₹2.7B in FY2022, a compound +53.1%/yr. Reported net income was ₹1.7B in FY2026, compounding +86.2%/yr from FY2022. FY2022 was a trough year, so the rate overstates the trend.
Key figures
Market cap ₹12.6B (≈ $131M) · P/E ratio 5.8 · P/S ratio 0.68 · EPS (TTM) ₹14.30 · Net margin 11.9% · Return on equity 7.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) −0.7% · Operating margin 34.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 57% below its 52-week high and 3% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at 30%, UGROCAP screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear ₹94.81Fair Value ₹107.21Bull ₹107.21
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 6 months old). Earnings retained since then (₹7.25 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.87/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+52.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+44.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+61.7%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +81.6% a year
Revenue growth 18 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+36.3%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in INR ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in INR: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+31.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+31.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.31.9% vs 10.5%, picking up
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.10% → −6%
Start year 2021 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+49.3%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (India: IMF forecast 4.1% a year to 2030, 4.7% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +43.3% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Credit Services · 331 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/12 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score33 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside+30.2% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)7.1% · Below median
Return on assets1.5% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)24.0% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)34.2% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth6.7% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity3.55× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Credit Services median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Ugro Capital Limited Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/UGROCAP
Frequently asked questions
Is Ugro Capital Limited (UGROCAP) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 2, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ₹107.21 versus a price of ₹82.35, about +30% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of UGROCAP?
Our model-based fair value for Ugro Capital Limited is ₹107.21 (as of Oct 2, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ₹82.35.
What is the quality score of UGROCAP?
Ugro Capital Limited has a Quality Score of 32/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Ugro Capital Limited (UGROCAP)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ₹107.21 (as of Oct 2, 2026) from 9 valuation models. Cautious scenario ₹94.81, optimistic scenario ₹107.21. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Ugro Capital Limited stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ₹107.21, about +30% upside versus a price of ₹82.35 (undervalued). Cautious scenario ₹94.81, optimistic scenario ₹107.21. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Ugro Capital Limited (UGROCAP)?
Ugro Capital Limited reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ₹8.7B (latest available figure, as of Oct 2, 2026).
What growth is priced into Ugro Capital Limited (UGROCAP)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Ugro Capital Limited would have to grow free cash flow by +49.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 13.9 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +61.7 % per year. As of Oct 2, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of UGROCAP use?
Our models discount Ugro Capital Limited at 13.9 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.20, country premium for India. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Ugro Capital Limited that is +49.3 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (13.9 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Ugro Capital Limited (UGROCAP) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Ugro Capital Limited grew +61.7 % a year. The price currently implies +49.3 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Ugro Capital Limited (UGROCAP) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Ugro Capital Limited (+49.3 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Ugro Capital Limited (UGROCAP)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 13.53 %: that much free cash flow Ugro Capital Limited produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (13.9 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Ugro Capital Limited (UGROCAP)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Ugro Capital Limited it is ₹107.21 per share (as of Oct 2, 2026), against a price of ₹82.35. It is the blended result of 9 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Ugro Capital Limited stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 2, 2026, UGROCAP trades below its calculated fair value: price ₹82.35, fair value ₹107.21, a gap of about +30% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of UGROCAP?
No. The price is what the market pays today (₹82.35); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (₹107.21). For Ugro Capital Limited the two are ₹24.86 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Ugro Capital Limited worth?
The market values Ugro Capital Limited at about ₹12.6B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 2, 2026). Per share that is ₹82.35; our models calculate a fair value of ₹107.21 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about UGROCAP?
Our models span a range for Ugro Capital Limited: cautious scenario ₹94.81, base ₹107.21, optimistic ₹107.21 per share (as of Oct 2, 2026, price ₹82.35). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of UGROCAP?
Ugro Capital Limited trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 5.8 (as of Oct 2, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ₹107.21 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.4, P/S 1.5.
How solid is the balance sheet of Ugro Capital Limited (UGROCAP)?
Balance-sheet figures for Ugro Capital Limited (as of Oct 2, 2026): return on equity 7.1%, debt of 3.55 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 32/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is UGROCAP from its 52-week high?
Ugro Capital Limited trades at ₹82.35, about 57% below its 52-week high of ₹189.95 and 3% above the low of ₹80.29 (as of Oct 1, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ₹107.21 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Ugro Capital Limited?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Visa Inc, Mastercard Incorporated, American Express Company, Capital One Financial Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Ugro Capital Limited stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 2, 2026: price ₹82.35, calculated fair value ₹107.21 (+30%), Quality Score 32/100, from 9 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of UGROCAP calculated?
We run Ugro Capital Limited through 9 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ₹107.21, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Ugro Capital Limited currently trades 23 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Ugro Capital Limited (UGROCAP)?
The closing price on Oct 1, 2026 was ₹82.35. Our model-based fair value is ₹107.21, about +30% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Ugro Capital Limited right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (32/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The price is below even our cautious bear case (₹94.81). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. The models converge in a tight band (₹94.81 to ₹107.21), unusually little disagreement for a valuation.
Key figures of Ugro Capital Limited
How large is the market capitalisation of Ugro Capital Limited (UGROCAP)?
The market capitalisation of Ugro Capital Limited is ₹12.6B (≈ $131M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Ugro Capital Limited (UGROCAP)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Ugro Capital Limited is 0.68 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Ugro Capital Limited (UGROCAP)?
Earnings per share at Ugro Capital Limited are ₹14.30 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 5.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Ugro Capital Limited (UGROCAP)?
The net margin of Ugro Capital Limited is 11.9% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Ugro Capital Limited (UGROCAP)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Ugro Capital Limited is 7.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Ugro Capital Limited (UGROCAP)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Ugro Capital Limited is −0.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Ugro Capital Limited (UGROCAP)?
The operating margin of Ugro Capital Limited is 34.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Ugro Capital Limited (UGROCAP)?
Revenue at Ugro Capital Limited is growing +6.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +44.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Ugro Capital Limited (UGROCAP)?
Earnings per share at Ugro Capital Limited are growing +33.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Ugro Capital Limited (UGROCAP) carry?
The net debt of Ugro Capital Limited is ₹94.9B (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 55.7 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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