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Unusual Machines, Inc. (UMAC) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Unusual Machines, Inc. $3.17, price $22.37, upside -85.8%, quality 28 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
  3. Add to watchlist

Technology · US · ISIN US91532F1021

UM Unusual Machines, Inc. logo Thin data Sep 24, 2026

Unusual Machines, Inc.

UMAC · US

Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.

!Fair value $3.17 · Strongly overvalued (−85.8%)
!Quality 28/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue YoY +101.2 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -32.7% net margin (TTM)
!negative free cash flow
!Trails peers (1/9)
!Narrow moat 6/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$34.06 $1.04 Fair Value $3.17 Feb 2024 Oct 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

How to read this chart

32‑month range $1.04 – $34.06 · fair‑value band $2.10 – $3.97 · the $22.37 price screens above the $3.17 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

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Company profile

Unusual Machines, Inc. engages in the commercial drone industry. The company offers small drones and essential components. It distributes their products through B2B sale, e-commerce site, and retail channel. The company has a strategic collaboration with Lantronix Inc.

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Unusual Machines, Inc. engages in the commercial drone industry. The company offers small drones and essential components. It distributes their products through B2B sale, e-commerce site, and retail channel. The company has a strategic collaboration with Lantronix Inc. for the development of autonomous drone components integrating edge AI compute with flight control systems. The company was formerly known as AerocarveUS Corporation and changed its name to Unusual Machines, Inc. in July 2022. Unusual Machines, Inc. was incorporated in 2019 and is headquartered in Orlando, Florida.

Stock analysis

Unusual Machines, Inc. (UMAC) currently trades at $22.37, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $3.17, 85.8% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 95/100, which puts the evidence level at low.

Scenario range: $2.10 (bear) to $3.97 (bull), the price of $22.37 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 28/100 (below-average quality), in the Technology sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

Unusual Machines, Inc. reported revenue of $11.2M in FY2025 versus $5.0K in FY2021, a compound +588.3%/yr. Reported net income was −$19.2M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $933M · P/S ratio 54.1 · EPS (TTM) $−0.3200 · Net margin −32.7% · Return on equity −3.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) −62.9% · Operating margin −89.7% · Revenue (TTM) $17.3M.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 28 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 34% below its 52-week high and 188% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −21% fair-value upside, at −86%, UMAC screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $2.10 Fair Value $3.17 Bull $3.97
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
NCAV (Graham) $1.83 $2.45 $3.66 51
All 1 models by family
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $1.83 $2.45 $3.66 51

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 28/100

Of which business quality 35 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 56

Profitability 1
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 80
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 13
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 100
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 3
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 0
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 83
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 73
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 0
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

Open the full quality analysis →

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 28/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−3,244.7% (2021) → −224.6% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

UMAC screens overvalued: fair value 86% below the price. Compare with Dell Technologies Inc →

Earlier news

News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (86 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation. Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.

Compare Unusual Machines, Inc. with another stock

Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Computer Hardware · 203 stocks

Beats the industry median on 1/8 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 35 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −85.4% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets −10.2% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM) −32.7% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) −89.7% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 296.4% · Top 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Computer Hardware median · lower = cheaper

P/B 5.33× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM) 54.08× · Priciest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)100 · sector 72
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 33
HEALTH (low debt)0 · sector 97
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 47

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Computer Hardware stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Dell Technologies Inc DELL $539.59 $195.72 −64%
Arista Networks, Inc ANET $203.59 $161.24 −21%
Seagate Technology Holdings STX $922.34 $220.46 −76%
Western Digital Corporation WDC $453.23 $182.63 −60%
Wiwynn Corporation 6669 2,115 TWD 997.81 TWD −53%
Lenovo Group 0992 HK$37.16 HK$33.71 −9%
Hangzhou Hikvision Digital Technology Co 002415 ¥32.63 ¥46.76 +43%
Everpure, Inc P $126.00 $51.34 −59%
Super Micro Computer, Inc SMCI $41.92 $45.03 +7%
HP Inc HPQ $31.32 $52.70 +68%

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Unusual Machines, Inc. · Fair Value
$3.17 −86%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Unusual Machines, Inc. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/UMAC

Frequently asked questions

Is Unusual Machines, Inc. (UMAC) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $3.17 versus a price of $22.37, about −86% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of UMAC?
Our model-based fair value for Unusual Machines, Inc. is $3.17 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $22.37.
What is the quality score of UMAC?
Unusual Machines, Inc. has a Quality Score of 28/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Unusual Machines, Inc. (UMAC)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $3.17 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario $2.10, optimistic scenario $3.97. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Unusual Machines, Inc. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $3.17, about −86% upside versus a price of $22.37 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $2.10, optimistic scenario $3.97. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Unusual Machines, Inc. (UMAC)?
Unusual Machines, Inc. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $17.3M (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Unusual Machines, Inc. (UMAC)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Unusual Machines, Inc. it is $3.17 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $22.37. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Unusual Machines, Inc. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, UMAC trades above its calculated fair value: price $22.37, fair value $3.17, a gap of about −86% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of UMAC?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($22.37); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($3.17). For Unusual Machines, Inc. the two are $19.20 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Unusual Machines, Inc. worth?
The market values Unusual Machines, Inc. at about $933M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $22.37; our models calculate a fair value of $3.17 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about UMAC?
Our models span a range for Unusual Machines, Inc.: cautious scenario $2.10, base $3.17, optimistic $3.97 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $22.37). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Unusual Machines, Inc. (UMAC)?
Balance-sheet figures for Unusual Machines, Inc. (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity −3.3%. They feed the Quality Score of 28/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is UMAC from its 52-week high?
Unusual Machines, Inc. trades at $22.37, about 34% below its 52-week high of $34.06 and 188% above the low of $7.76 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $3.17 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Unusual Machines, Inc.?
From the same area (Technology) we also value Dell Technologies Inc, Arista Networks, Inc, Seagate Technology Holdings, Western Digital Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Unusual Machines, Inc. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $22.37, calculated fair value $3.17 (−86%), Quality Score 28/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of UMAC calculated?
We run Unusual Machines, Inc. through 1 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $3.17, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Unusual Machines, Inc. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Unusual Machines, Inc. (UMAC)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $22.37. Our model-based fair value is $3.17, about −86% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Unusual Machines, Inc. right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($3.97). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (28/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range ($2.10 to $3.97) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Key figures of Unusual Machines, Inc.

How large is the market capitalisation of Unusual Machines, Inc. (UMAC)?
The market capitalisation of Unusual Machines, Inc. is $933M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Unusual Machines, Inc. (UMAC)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Unusual Machines, Inc. is 54.1 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Unusual Machines, Inc. (UMAC)?
Earnings per share at Unusual Machines, Inc. are $−0.3200. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Unusual Machines, Inc. (UMAC)?
The net margin of Unusual Machines, Inc. is −32.7% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Unusual Machines, Inc. (UMAC)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Unusual Machines, Inc. is −3.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Unusual Machines, Inc. (UMAC)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Unusual Machines, Inc. is −62.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Unusual Machines, Inc. (UMAC)?
The operating margin of Unusual Machines, Inc. is −89.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Unusual Machines, Inc. (UMAC)?
Revenue at Unusual Machines, Inc. is growing +296% versus a year earlier. How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does Unusual Machines, Inc. (UMAC) generate?
The free cash flow of Unusual Machines, Inc. is −$23.2M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Unusual Machines, Inc. (UMAC) hold?
Unusual Machines, Inc. holds more cash than debt, $101M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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