Universe Pharmaceuticals Inc (UPC) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Universe Pharmaceuticals Inc $3.62, price $4.50, upside -19.5%, quality 49 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $2.25 – $2,370 · fair‑value band $2.39 – $4.53 · the $4.50 price screens above the $3.62 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
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Universe Pharmaceuticals INC, through its subsidiaries, engages in the manufacturing, marketing, distribution, and sales of traditional Chinese medicine derivative products in China. The company offers products for the treatment and relief of common chronic health conditions in the elderly for physical wellness and longevity; and cold and flu medications.
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Universe Pharmaceuticals INC, through its subsidiaries, engages in the manufacturing, marketing, distribution, and sales of traditional Chinese medicine derivative products in China. The company offers products for the treatment and relief of common chronic health conditions in the elderly for physical wellness and longevity; and cold and flu medications. It also provides guben yanling, shenrong weisheng, and quanlu pill; yangxue danggui and qiangli pipa syrup; wuzi yanzong oral, fengtong medicinal, shenrong medicinal, qishe medicinal, fengshitong medicinal, and shiquan dabu medicinal liquor; paracetamol granule for children; and isatis root granule. In addition, the company distributes and sells third-party products, including biomedical drugs, medical instruments, traditional Chinese medicine pieces, and dietary supplements. It primarily serves pharmaceutical companies, hospitals, clinics, and drugstore chains. The company was founded in 1998 and is headquartered in Ji'An, China. Universe Pharmaceuticals INC is a subsidiary of Sununion Holding Group Limited.
Stock analysis
Universe Pharmaceuticals Inc (UPC) currently trades at $4.50, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $3.62, 19.5% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 95/100, which puts the evidence level at low.
Scenario range: $2.39 (bear) to $4.53 (bull), the price of $4.50 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 49/100 (below-average quality), in the Healthcare sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Universe Pharmaceuticals Inc reported revenue of $17.9M in FY2025 versus $48.0M in FY2021, a compound −21.9%/yr. Reported net income was −$3.7M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $2.0M · P/S ratio 0.11 · EPS (TTM) $−8.06 · Net margin −20.6% · Return on equity −7.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) −3.0% · Operating margin −6.8% · Revenue (TTM) $17.9M.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 28 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 63% below its 52-week high and 100% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at −19% fair-value upside, at −20%, UPC screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $2.39Fair Value $3.62Bull $4.53
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.0/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−22.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−23.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−10.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 7 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−6.5%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
33.4% (2020) → −16.3% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic · 569 stocks
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Is Universe Pharmaceuticals Inc (UPC) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $3.62 versus a price of $4.50, about −20% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of UPC?
Our model-based fair value for Universe Pharmaceuticals Inc is $3.62 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $4.50.
What is the quality score of UPC?
Universe Pharmaceuticals Inc has a Quality Score of 49/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Universe Pharmaceuticals Inc (UPC)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $3.62 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario $2.39, optimistic scenario $4.53. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Universe Pharmaceuticals Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $3.62, about −20% upside versus a price of $4.50 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $2.39, optimistic scenario $4.53. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Universe Pharmaceuticals Inc (UPC)?
Universe Pharmaceuticals Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $17.9M (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Universe Pharmaceuticals Inc (UPC)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Universe Pharmaceuticals Inc it is $3.62 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of $4.50. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Universe Pharmaceuticals Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, UPC trades above its calculated fair value: price $4.50, fair value $3.62, a gap of about −20% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of UPC?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($4.50); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($3.62). For Universe Pharmaceuticals Inc the two are $0.8790 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Universe Pharmaceuticals Inc worth?
The market values Universe Pharmaceuticals Inc at about $2.0M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is $4.50; our models calculate a fair value of $3.62 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about UPC?
Our models span a range for Universe Pharmaceuticals Inc: cautious scenario $2.39, base $3.62, optimistic $4.53 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price $4.50). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Universe Pharmaceuticals Inc (UPC)?
Balance-sheet figures for Universe Pharmaceuticals Inc (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity −7.2%. They feed the Quality Score of 49/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is UPC from its 52-week high?
Universe Pharmaceuticals Inc trades at $4.50, about 63% below its 52-week high of $12.18 and 100% above the low of $2.25 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $3.62 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Universe Pharmaceuticals Inc?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value Merck KGaA, Takeda Pharmaceutical Company, Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Limited, Sun Pharmaceutical Industries Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Universe Pharmaceuticals Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price $4.50, calculated fair value $3.62 (−20%), Quality Score 49/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of UPC calculated?
We run Universe Pharmaceuticals Inc through 1 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $3.62, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Universe Pharmaceuticals Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Universe Pharmaceuticals Inc (UPC)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $4.50. Our model-based fair value is $3.62, about −20% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Universe Pharmaceuticals Inc right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (49/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range ($2.39 to $4.53) leaves room in how you read the outcome. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
Key figures of Universe Pharmaceuticals Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Universe Pharmaceuticals Inc (UPC)?
The market capitalisation of Universe Pharmaceuticals Inc is $2.0M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Universe Pharmaceuticals Inc (UPC)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Universe Pharmaceuticals Inc is 0.11 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Universe Pharmaceuticals Inc (UPC)?
Earnings per share at Universe Pharmaceuticals Inc are $−8.06. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Universe Pharmaceuticals Inc (UPC)?
The net margin of Universe Pharmaceuticals Inc is −20.6% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Universe Pharmaceuticals Inc (UPC)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Universe Pharmaceuticals Inc is −7.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Universe Pharmaceuticals Inc (UPC)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Universe Pharmaceuticals Inc is −3.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Universe Pharmaceuticals Inc (UPC)?
The operating margin of Universe Pharmaceuticals Inc is −6.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Universe Pharmaceuticals Inc (UPC)?
Revenue at Universe Pharmaceuticals Inc is growing −14.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg −23.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Universe Pharmaceuticals Inc (UPC)?
Earnings per share at Universe Pharmaceuticals Inc are growing −82.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Universe Pharmaceuticals Inc (UPC) generate?
The free cash flow of Universe Pharmaceuticals Inc is −$5.4M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Universe Pharmaceuticals Inc (UPC) hold?
Universe Pharmaceuticals Inc holds more cash than debt, $24.3M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Thin data
Sep 27, 2026