Utz Brands Inc (UTZ) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Utz Brands Inc $2.64, price $14.23, upside -81.5%, quality 37 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Structural break:
The valuation model sees a lasting decline in earnings power for this stock, the confidence band is broken. Treat the target with caution.
Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.
!Fair value $2.64 · Strongly overvalued (−81%)
!Quality 37/100
!Mixed Growth(revenue 5y +13.4 %/yr)
!Loss over the last twelve months · -0.6% net margin (TTM) · fiscal year 2025 0.1%
✓Moderate debt · generates free cash flow
·2.17% dividend yield
!Trails peers(2/13)
!Narrow moat20/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $6.74 – $21.67 · fair‑value band $0.5280 – $2.81 · the $14.23 price screens above the $2.64 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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Utz Brands, Inc. manufactures branded salty snacks in the United States.
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Utz Brands, Inc. manufactures branded salty snacks in the United States. The company provides a range of salty snack food products, such as potato chips, tortilla chips, pretzels, cheese snacks, pub and party mixes, pork skins, and ready-to-eat popcorn, as well as other snacks which include salsa and dips; and non-branded and non-salty snacks comprising partner brands, private label, and co-manufacturing products. It offers its products under the Utz, On The Border, Zapp's, Boulder Canyon, Golden Flake, Miguelito's, Hawaiian, Bachman, Tim's Cascade, Dirty Potato Chips, TGI Fridays, and Vitner's brand names. The company distributes its products through direct-to-warehouse, direct-store-delivery, third-party distributors, and direct-to-consumer. Utz Brands, Inc. was founded in 1921 and is headquartered in Hanover, Pennsylvania.
Stock analysis
Utz Brands Inc (UTZ) currently trades at $14.23, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $2.64, implying the stock looks roughly 439.1% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of $5.40 per share, and 1 of the 18 models we run sit above the $14.23 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at $1.06, and 17 of the 18 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: $0.5280 (bear) to $2.81 (bull), the price of $14.23 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 37/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Utz Brands Inc reported revenue of $1.4B in FY2025 versus $1.2B in FY2021, a compound +5.1%/yr. Reported net income was $800K in FY2025, compounding −55.6%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $624M · P/S ratio 0.43 · EPS (TTM) $−0.1000 · Dividend yield 2.2% · Net margin 0.1% · Return on equity −1.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.4% · Operating margin 1.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades at its 52-week high and 111% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at −2% fair-value upside, at −81%, UTZ screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely ($0.0600 to $18.52). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bear $0.5280Fair Value $2.64Bull $2.81
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.84/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+2.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 7 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.3%
’18
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−46.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−48.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.2%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.5% → 7%
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+61.5%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+1.9%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +57.7% a year for the price and −0.5% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Packaged Foods · 667 stocks
Beats the industry median on 1/11 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score37 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−81% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets0% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)−1% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)2% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth3% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)2.2% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.17× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Packaged Foods median · lower = cheaper
P/B0.87× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
P/S (TTM)0.43× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF66.4× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA13.6× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 30
FUTURE (revenue growth)13· sector 19
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 29
HEALTH (low debt)42· sector 96
DIVIDEND (yield)43· sector 58
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Utz Brands Inc (UTZ) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $2.64 versus a price of $14.23, about −81% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of UTZ?
Our model-based fair value for Utz Brands Inc is $2.64 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $14.23.
What is the quality score of UTZ?
Utz Brands Inc has a Quality Score of 37/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Utz Brands Inc (UTZ)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $2.64 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 20 valuation models. Cautious scenario $0.5280, optimistic scenario $2.81. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Utz Brands Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $2.64, about −81% upside versus a price of $14.23 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $0.5280, optimistic scenario $2.81. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Utz Brands Inc (UTZ)?
Utz Brands Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $1.4B (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does Utz Brands Inc pay a dividend?
Utz Brands Inc currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.17% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Utz Brands Inc (UTZ)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Utz Brands Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +61.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +13.4 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of UTZ use?
Our models discount Utz Brands Inc at 10.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.84, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Utz Brands Inc that is +61.5 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Utz Brands Inc (UTZ) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Utz Brands Inc grew +13.4 % a year. The price currently implies +61.5 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Utz Brands Inc (UTZ) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Utz Brands Inc (+61.5 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Utz Brands Inc (UTZ)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 0.75 %: that much free cash flow Utz Brands Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Utz Brands Inc (UTZ)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Utz Brands Inc it is $2.64 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $14.23. It is the blended result of 20 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Utz Brands Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, UTZ trades above its calculated fair value: price $14.23, fair value $2.64, a gap of about −81% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of UTZ?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($14.23); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($2.64). For Utz Brands Inc the two are $11.59 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Utz Brands Inc worth?
The market values Utz Brands Inc at about $624M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $14.23; our models calculate a fair value of $2.64 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about UTZ?
Our models span a range for Utz Brands Inc: cautious scenario $0.5280, base $2.64, optimistic $2.81 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $14.23). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Utz Brands Inc (UTZ)?
Balance-sheet figures for Utz Brands Inc (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity −1.2%, debt of 1.17 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 37/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is UTZ from its 52-week high?
Utz Brands Inc trades at $14.23, at its 52-week high of $14.28 and 111% above the low of $6.74 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $2.64 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Utz Brands Inc?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Nestlé S.A, Danone S.A, The Kraft Heinz Company, Foshan Haitian Flavouring and Food Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Utz Brands Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $14.23, calculated fair value $2.64 (−81%), Quality Score 37/100, from 20 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of UTZ calculated?
We run Utz Brands Inc through 20 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $2.64, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Utz Brands Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Utz Brands Inc (UTZ)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $14.23. Our model-based fair value is $2.64, about −81% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Utz Brands Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($2.81). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (37/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The model range is unusually wide ($0.5280 to $2.81). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Key figures of Utz Brands Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Utz Brands Inc (UTZ)?
The market capitalisation of Utz Brands Inc is $624M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Utz Brands Inc (UTZ)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Utz Brands Inc is 0.43 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Utz Brands Inc (UTZ)?
Earnings per share at Utz Brands Inc are $−0.1000. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Utz Brands Inc (UTZ)?
The dividend yield of Utz Brands Inc is 2.2%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Utz Brands Inc (UTZ)?
The net margin of Utz Brands Inc is 0.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Utz Brands Inc (UTZ)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Utz Brands Inc is −1.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Utz Brands Inc (UTZ)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Utz Brands Inc is 1.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Utz Brands Inc (UTZ)?
The operating margin of Utz Brands Inc is 1.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Utz Brands Inc (UTZ)?
Revenue at Utz Brands Inc is growing +2.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +0.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Utz Brands Inc (UTZ)?
Earnings per share at Utz Brands Inc are growing −47.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Utz Brands Inc (UTZ) carry?
The net debt of Utz Brands Inc is $1.0B (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Thin data
Sep 23, 2026