Victoria Insurance Tbk PT (VINS) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Victoria Insurance Tbk PT IDR 117, price IDR 145, upside -19.2%, quality 61 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 77.15 IDR – 260.00 IDR · fair‑value band 101.38 IDR – 158.92 IDR · the 145.00 IDR price screens above the 117.13 IDR fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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PT Victoria Insurance Tbk provides general insurance in Indonesia. The company operates through six segments: Property, Motor Vehicle, Marine Cargo, Personal Accidents, Health, and Others. It offers property, motor vehicle, personal accident, marine cargo, engineering, money, liability, and hull insurance.
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PT Victoria Insurance Tbk provides general insurance in Indonesia. The company operates through six segments: Property, Motor Vehicle, Marine Cargo, Personal Accidents, Health, and Others. It offers property, motor vehicle, personal accident, marine cargo, engineering, money, liability, and hull insurance. The company was formerly known as PT Asuransi Jenderal Centris and changed its name to PT Victoria Insurance Tbk in August 2010. The company was founded in 1978 and is headquartered in Jakarta Selatan, Indonesia. PT Victoria Insurance Tbk operates as a subsidiary of PT Victoria Investama Tbk.
Stock analysis
Victoria Insurance Tbk PT (VINS) currently trades at 145.00 IDR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 117.13 IDR, implying the stock looks roughly 23.8% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Economic Profit group reads highest at a median of 124.46 IDR per share, and 1 of the 4 models we run sit above the 145.00 IDR price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at 106.47 IDR, and 3 of the 4 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: 101.38 IDR (bear) to 158.92 IDR (bull), the price of 145.00 IDR sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 61/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Victoria Insurance Tbk PT reported revenue of 138B IDR in FY2025 versus 48.5B IDR in FY2021, a compound +29.9%/yr. Reported net income was 13.2B IDR in FY2025, compounding +1.7%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 212B IDR (≈ $11.8M) · P/E ratio 18.4 · P/S ratio 1.75 · EPS (TTM) 7.89 IDR · Net margin 9.5% · Return on equity 9.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.8% · Operating margin 9.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 44% below its 52-week high and 26% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −10% fair-value upside, at −19%, VINS screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 101.38 IDRFair Value 117.13 IDRBull 158.92 IDR
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (5.79 IDR per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.81/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+122.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+43.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+27.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +15.6% a year
Revenue growth 13 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+23.7%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in IDR (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip. Measured in IDR: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+3.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+3.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.1% vs 2%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.18% → 11%
2025 sits 88% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+25.0%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Indonesia: IMF forecast 2.6% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +21.8% a year for the price.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Insurance - Property & Casualty · 119 stocks
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Is Victoria Insurance Tbk PT (VINS) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 117.13 IDR versus a price of 145.00 IDR, about −19% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of VINS?
Our model-based fair value for Victoria Insurance Tbk PT is 117.13 IDR (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 145.00 IDR.
What is the quality score of VINS?
Victoria Insurance Tbk PT has a Quality Score of 61/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Victoria Insurance Tbk PT (VINS)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 117.13 IDR (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 4 valuation models. Cautious scenario 101.38 IDR, optimistic scenario 158.92 IDR. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Victoria Insurance Tbk PT stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 117.13 IDR, about −19% upside versus a price of 145.00 IDR (overvalued). Cautious scenario 101.38 IDR, optimistic scenario 158.92 IDR. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Victoria Insurance Tbk PT (VINS)?
Victoria Insurance Tbk PT reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 157B IDR (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Victoria Insurance Tbk PT (VINS)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Victoria Insurance Tbk PT would have to grow free cash flow by +25.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.9 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +27.0 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of VINS use?
Our models discount Victoria Insurance Tbk PT at 10.9 %: a base by market capitalisation (nano), damped by beta 0.65, country premium for Indonesia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Victoria Insurance Tbk PT that is +25.0 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.9 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Victoria Insurance Tbk PT (VINS) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Victoria Insurance Tbk PT grew +27.0 % a year. The price currently implies +25.0 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Victoria Insurance Tbk PT (VINS) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Victoria Insurance Tbk PT (+25.0 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Victoria Insurance Tbk PT (VINS)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 2.45 %: that much free cash flow Victoria Insurance Tbk PT produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.9 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Victoria Insurance Tbk PT (VINS)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Victoria Insurance Tbk PT it is 117.13 IDR per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of 145.00 IDR. It is the blended result of 4 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Victoria Insurance Tbk PT stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, VINS trades above its calculated fair value: price 145.00 IDR, fair value 117.13 IDR, a gap of about −19% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of VINS?
No. The price is what the market pays today (145.00 IDR); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (117.13 IDR). For Victoria Insurance Tbk PT the two are 27.87 IDR per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Victoria Insurance Tbk PT worth?
The market values Victoria Insurance Tbk PT at about 212B IDR (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is 145.00 IDR; our models calculate a fair value of 117.13 IDR per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about VINS?
Our models span a range for Victoria Insurance Tbk PT: cautious scenario 101.38 IDR, base 117.13 IDR, optimistic 158.92 IDR per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price 145.00 IDR). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of VINS?
Victoria Insurance Tbk PT trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 18.4 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 117.13 IDR is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.9, P/S 1.3, EV/EBITDA 9.9.
How solid is the balance sheet of Victoria Insurance Tbk PT (VINS)?
Balance-sheet figures for Victoria Insurance Tbk PT (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 9.4%. They feed the Quality Score of 61/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is VINS from its 52-week high?
Victoria Insurance Tbk PT trades at 145.00 IDR, about 44% below its 52-week high of 260.00 IDR and 26% above the low of 115.00 IDR (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 117.13 IDR is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Victoria Insurance Tbk PT?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Chubb Limited, The Progressive Corporation, The Travelers Companies, Inc, The Allstate Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Victoria Insurance Tbk PT stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price 145.00 IDR, calculated fair value 117.13 IDR (−19%), Quality Score 61/100, from 4 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of VINS calculated?
We run Victoria Insurance Tbk PT through 4 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 117.13 IDR, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Victoria Insurance Tbk PT itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Victoria Insurance Tbk PT (VINS)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was 145.00 IDR. Our model-based fair value is 117.13 IDR, about −19% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Victoria Insurance Tbk PT right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (61/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of Victoria Insurance Tbk PT (VINS) come from?
Earnings per share at Victoria Insurance Tbk PT grew −3.5 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +10.4 %, EBIT margin −11.6 %, tax rate −0.5 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.7 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Victoria Insurance Tbk PT
How large is the market capitalisation of Victoria Insurance Tbk PT (VINS)?
The market capitalisation of Victoria Insurance Tbk PT is 212B IDR (≈ $11.8M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Victoria Insurance Tbk PT (VINS)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Victoria Insurance Tbk PT is 1.75 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Victoria Insurance Tbk PT (VINS)?
Earnings per share at Victoria Insurance Tbk PT are 7.89 IDR (price ÷ EPS = P/E 18.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Victoria Insurance Tbk PT (VINS)?
The net margin of Victoria Insurance Tbk PT is 9.5% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Victoria Insurance Tbk PT (VINS)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Victoria Insurance Tbk PT is 9.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Victoria Insurance Tbk PT (VINS)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Victoria Insurance Tbk PT is 3.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Victoria Insurance Tbk PT (VINS)?
The operating margin of Victoria Insurance Tbk PT is 9.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Victoria Insurance Tbk PT (VINS)?
Revenue at Victoria Insurance Tbk PT is growing +37.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +43.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Victoria Insurance Tbk PT (VINS)?
Earnings per share at Victoria Insurance Tbk PT are growing +158% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Victoria Insurance Tbk PT (VINS) hold?
Victoria Insurance Tbk PT holds more cash than debt, 12.9B IDR net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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