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Valley National Bancorp (VLYB34) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Oct 1, 2026: fair value of Valley National Bancorp BRL 56.34, price BRL 65.51, upside -14.0%, quality 56 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? Yes
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Financial Services · BR · ISIN US9197941076

VN Broad data Oct 3, 2026

Valley National Bancorp

VLYB34 · SA

Overvalued / MonitorQuality is not strong enough to offset the price risk.

!Fair value R$56.34 · Overvalued (−14.0%)
!Quality 56/100
✓Healthy Growth (revenue 3y +2.8 %/yr)
✓Highly profitable · 33.8% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
✓0.7% dividend yield · Well covered
✓Wide moat 65/100

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

R$74.27 R$33.06 Fair Value R$56.34 Jun 2021 Oct 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 3, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range R$33.06 – R$74.27 · fair‑value band R$54.39 – R$60.22 · the R$65.51 price screens above the R$56.34 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 3, 2026.

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Company profile

Valley National Bancorp operates as the holding company for Valley National Bank that provides various commercial, private banking, retail, insurance, and wealth management financial services products. The company operates through Consumer Banking, Commercial Banking, and Treasury and Corporate other segments.

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Valley National Bancorp operates as the holding company for Valley National Bank that provides various commercial, private banking, retail, insurance, and wealth management financial services products. The company operates through Consumer Banking, Commercial Banking, and Treasury and Corporate other segments. It offers non-interest bearing, savings, NOW, money market, and time deposit accounts; commercial and industrial, commercial real estate, construction, residential mortgage, and automobile loans; loans secured by the cash surrender value of life insurance; home equity loans and lines of credit; automobile financing; and secured and unsecured other consumer loans. The company also invests in various securities and interest-bearing deposits with other banks; and provides international banking services. In addition, it offers investment services for individuals and small to medium sized businesses; and trusts investment strategies designed for various investment profiles and objectives. Further, the company provides trust services, such as living and testamentary trusts, investment management, custodial and escrow services, and estate administration to individuals; tax credit advisory services; brokerage services; property and casualty, life, health, and title insurance agency services; and health care equipment lending and other commercial equipment leasing services, as well as private banking and management services. Additionally, it offers niche financial services, including loan and deposit products for homeowners associations, cannabis-related business banking, and venture banking; online, mobile, and telephone banking services; credit cards; and automated teller machine services. Valley National Bancorp was founded in 1927 and is headquartered in Morristown, New Jersey.

Stock analysis

Valley National Bancorp (VLYB34) currently trades at R$65.51, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is R$56.34, 14.0% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of R$73.26 per share, and 2 of the 6 models we run sit above the R$65.51 price.

Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at R$32.58, and 4 of the 6 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Scenario range: R$54.39 (bear) to R$60.22 (bull), the price of R$65.51 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 56/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.

Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.

Valley National Bancorp reported revenue of $2.0B in FY2025 versus $1.9B in FY2022, a compound +2.8%/yr. Reported net income was $598M in FY2025, compounding +1.7%/yr from FY2022.

Key figures

Market cap R$41.2B (≈ $7.9B) · P/E ratio 11.4 · P/S ratio 3.36 · EPS (TTM) R$5.75 · Dividend yield 0.7% · Net margin 29.5% · Return on equity 8.6% · Return on assets 1.0%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 46 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 12% below its 52-week high and 34% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −36% fair-value upside, at −14%, VLYB34 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear R$54.39 Fair Value R$56.34 Bull R$60.22
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (R$4.02 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Residual Income R$60.42 R$64.01 R$70.65 73
Gordon GGM R$23.00 R$34.89 R$47.26 66
DDM Multi-Stage R$23.00 R$32.58 R$43.01 64
All 6 models by family
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM R$23.00 R$34.89 R$47.26 66
DDM Multi-Stage R$23.00 R$32.58 R$43.01 64
Multiples
P/E Multiple R$54.95 R$73.26 R$91.58 63
P/B Multiple R$71.85 R$95.80 R$119.76 55
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) R$36.79 R$49.30 R$73.58 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income R$60.42 R$64.01 R$70.65 73

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 56/100

Of which business quality 48 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 60

Profitability 41
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 51
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 60
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 8
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 82
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 60
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 54
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 69
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 67
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 69/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+9.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.8%
What shareholders gained per year (last 3 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 3 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+1.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+0.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.7%

Growth Forecast

A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+20.9%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+9.2%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in USD, USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +18.1% a year for the price and +6.6% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)+12.2%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+10.0%
Projected 2028 (sales)+9.0%
Projected 2029 (sales)+8.0%
Projected 2030 (sales)+7.0%

VLYB34 screens overvalued: fair value 14% below the price. Compare with DBS Group →

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Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

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Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation O39 32.01 SGD 19.78 SGD −38%
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Valley National Bancorp · Fair Value
R$56.34 −14%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Valley National Bancorp Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/VLYB34

Frequently asked questions

Is Valley National Bancorp (VLYB34) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 3, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of R$56.34 versus a price of R$65.51, about −14% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of VLYB34?
Our model-based fair value for Valley National Bancorp is R$56.34 (as of Oct 3, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: R$65.51.
What is the quality score of VLYB34?
Valley National Bancorp has a Quality Score of 56/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Valley National Bancorp (VLYB34)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of R$56.34 (as of Oct 3, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario R$54.39, optimistic scenario R$60.22. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Valley National Bancorp stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at R$56.34, about −14% upside versus a price of R$65.51 (overvalued). Cautious scenario R$54.39, optimistic scenario R$60.22. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Valley National Bancorp (VLYB34)?
Valley National Bancorp reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $1.9B (latest available figure, as of Oct 3, 2026).
Does Valley National Bancorp pay a dividend?
Valley National Bancorp currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.67% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 3, 2026).
What growth is priced into Valley National Bancorp (VLYB34)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Valley National Bancorp would have to grow free cash flow by +20.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.9 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 3 years revenue grew +2.9 % per year. As of Oct 3, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of VLYB34 use?
Our models discount Valley National Bancorp at 12.9 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 1.05, country premium for Brazil. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Valley National Bancorp that is +20.9 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (12.9 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Valley National Bancorp (VLYB34) delivered so far?
Over the past 3 years revenue at Valley National Bancorp grew +2.9 % a year. The price currently implies +20.9 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Valley National Bancorp (VLYB34) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +6.0 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Valley National Bancorp (+20.9 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Valley National Bancorp (VLYB34)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 4.92 %: that much free cash flow Valley National Bancorp produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.9 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Valley National Bancorp (VLYB34)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Valley National Bancorp it is R$56.34 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026), against a price of R$65.51. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Valley National Bancorp stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 3, 2026, VLYB34 trades above its calculated fair value: price R$65.51, fair value R$56.34, a gap of about −14% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of VLYB34?
No. The price is what the market pays today (R$65.51); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (R$56.34). For Valley National Bancorp the two are R$9.17 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Valley National Bancorp worth?
The market values Valley National Bancorp at about R$41.2B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 3, 2026). Per share that is R$65.51; our models calculate a fair value of R$56.34 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about VLYB34?
Our models span a range for Valley National Bancorp: cautious scenario R$54.39, base R$56.34, optimistic R$60.22 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026, price R$65.51). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How far is VLYB34 from its 52-week high?
Valley National Bancorp trades at R$65.51, about 12% below its 52-week high of R$74.27 and 34% above the low of R$48.81 (as of Oct 1, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of R$56.34 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Valley National Bancorp?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value DBS Group, China Merchants Bank Co, UniCredit S.p.A, Mizuho Financial Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Valley National Bancorp stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 3, 2026: price R$65.51, calculated fair value R$56.34 (−14%), Quality Score 56/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of VLYB34 calculated?
We run Valley National Bancorp through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of R$56.34, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Valley National Bancorp itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Valley National Bancorp (VLYB34)?
The closing price on Oct 1, 2026 was R$65.51. Our model-based fair value is R$56.34, about −14% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Valley National Bancorp right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (R$60.22). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (56/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. The models converge in a tight band (R$54.39 to R$60.22), unusually little disagreement for a valuation. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.

Key figures of Valley National Bancorp

How large is the market capitalisation of Valley National Bancorp (VLYB34)?
The market capitalisation of Valley National Bancorp is R$41.2B (≈ $7.9B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/E ratio of Valley National Bancorp (VLYB34)?
The price-to-earnings ratio of Valley National Bancorp is 11.4. Price to earnings: how many years of current profit you pay for the stock. A P/E of 10 means ten years of profit.
What is the P/S ratio of Valley National Bancorp (VLYB34)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Valley National Bancorp is 3.36 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Valley National Bancorp (VLYB34)?
Earnings per share at Valley National Bancorp are R$5.75 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 11.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Valley National Bancorp (VLYB34)?
The dividend yield of Valley National Bancorp is 0.7% (payout 7.7%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Valley National Bancorp (VLYB34)?
The net margin of Valley National Bancorp is 29.5% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Valley National Bancorp (VLYB34)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Valley National Bancorp is 8.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the return on assets of Valley National Bancorp (VLYB34)?
The return on assets (ROA) of Valley National Bancorp is 1.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to everything the company owns. Harder to inflate than return on equity because debt does not boost it.
What is the operating margin of Valley National Bancorp (VLYB34)?
The operating margin of Valley National Bancorp is 46.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Valley National Bancorp (VLYB34)?
Revenue at Valley National Bancorp is growing +23.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +2.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Valley National Bancorp (VLYB34)?
Earnings per share at Valley National Bancorp are growing +58.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Valley National Bancorp (VLYB34) carry?
The net debt of Valley National Bancorp is $1.4B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 4.0 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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