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Vodafone Group (VODPF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Vodafone Group $8.15, price $1.63, upside +400.0%, quality 58 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? Yes
- Good quality? Yes
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Thin data
Sep 29, 2026
Thin data
Sep 29, 2026
Vodafone Group
VODPF · USClearly undervaluedStrong Fair Value upside, but quality is only moderate.
✓Fair value $8.15 · Strongly undervalued (+400.0%)
!Quality 58/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 5y −1.7 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -1.0% net margin (TTM)
✓Moderate debt · generates free cash flow
✓2.8% dividend yield · Cash covered
!Narrow moat 29/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $0.6503 – $1.71 · fair‑value band $4.63 – $12.78 · the $1.63 price screens below the $8.15 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.
Company profile
Vodafone Group provides telecommunication services in Germany, the United Kingdom, rest of Europe, Turkey, and South Africa. It offers mobile and fixed services; connectivity business solutions, such as digital services, the Internet of Things (IoT) and financial services; and IoT platforms.
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Vodafone Group provides telecommunication services in Germany, the United Kingdom, rest of Europe, Turkey, and South Africa. It offers mobile and fixed services; connectivity business solutions, such as digital services, the Internet of Things (IoT) and financial services; and IoT platforms. The company also provides cloud, multi-cloud, and edge computing solutions; M-PESA, an African mobile money platform to make payments and offer financial services; and international voice and roaming services. In addition, it offers unified communications, mobile connectivity, IoT connectivity, cloud and edge, E2E solutions, and security services; leases fibre and other fixed connectivity services; and engages in infrastructure assets, shared operations, growth platforms, retail, and service operations. The company serves private and public sector customers in health, banking and finance, transport and logistics, retail, utilities, and agriculture industries. Vodafone Group was incorporated in 1984 and is based in Newbury, the United Kingdom.
Stock analysis
Vodafone Group (VODPF) currently trades at $1.63, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $8.15, implying the stock looks roughly 80.0% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $5.89 per share, and 10 of the 14 models we run sit above the $1.63 price.
Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at $1.39, and 4 of the 14 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: $4.63 (bear) to $12.78 (bull), the price of $1.63 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 58/100 (solid quality), in the Communication Services sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Vodafone Group reported revenue of €40.2B in FY2026 versus €45.6B in FY2022, a compound −3.1%/yr. Reported net income was −€394M in FY2026.
Key figures
Market cap $39.2B · P/S ratio 0.83 · EPS (TTM) $−0.0100 · Dividend yield 2.8% · Net margin −1.0% · Return on equity 0.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.2% · Operating margin 7.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 39 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 5% below its 52-week high and 58% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Communication Services peers we cover trades at 36% fair-value upside, at 400%, VODPF screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $4.63
Fair Value $8.15
Bull $12.78
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF
$4.02
$6.96
$11.43
78
Growth DCF
$4.12
$6.73
$10.45
77
Owner Earnings
$3.33
$5.89
$9.79
74
All 14 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF
$4.02
$6.96
$11.43
78
Owner Earnings
$3.33
$5.89
$9.79
74
5Y Revenue Exit
$1.50
$2.55
$3.80
72
5Y EBITDA Exit
$4.60
$8.33
$12.66
74
10Y Revenue Exit
$2.32
$3.49
$4.92
67
10Y EBITDA Exit
$4.34
$7.49
$11.67
67
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM
$0.4900
$1.01
$1.61
66
DDM Multi-Stage
$0.4900
$0.8000
$1.06
66
Multiples
EV/EBIT
$0.7200
$1.39
$2.07
63
EV/EBITDA
$5.69
$8.02
$10.36
67
EV/Revenue
$0.2200
$0.8800
$1.54
49
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
$1.24
$1.66
$2.48
54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF
$4.12
$6.73
$10.45
77
Rev-Margin DCF
$1.50
$2.62
$3.93
71
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
58/100
Of which business quality 56 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 74
Profitability
14
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
62
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
78
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
29
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
81
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
50
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
77
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
96
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
100
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
30/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+7.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−4.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−1.7%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −2.5% a year
Revenue growth 40 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+17.9%
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
’26
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
7.8% (2021) → 8.6% (2026)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2026 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−13.0%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+4.5%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in EUR, euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −14.8% a year for the price and +2.3% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2027 (sales)+10.6%
Forecast 2028 (sales)+3.3%
Projected 2029 (sales)+3.1%
Projected 2030 (sales)+3.0%
Projected 2031 (sales)+2.8%
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Context: sector, industry, market
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: US Stocks
- Valuation of the USA market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more Telecom Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| China Mobile Limited 80941 | HK$67.30 | HK$114.85 | +71% |
| Verizon Communications Inc VZ | $45.87 | $70.27 | +53% |
| T-Mobile US, Inc TMUS | $162.98 | $272.88 | +67% |
| AT&T Inc T | $24.48 | $51.11 | +109% |
| Bharti Airtel Limited BHARTIARTL | ₹1,741 | ₹1,883 | +8% |
| China Telecom Corporation 601728 | ¥6.16 | ¥8.36 | +36% |
| Saudi Telecom Company 7010 | 43.22 SAR | 41.80 SAR | −3% |
| Singapore Telecommunications Limited Z74 | 4.28 SGD | 2.16 SGD | −50% |
| Swisscom AG SCMN | CHF 639.00 | CHF 505.18 | −21% |
| Telstra Group TLS | A$4.83 | A$4.43 | −8% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is Vodafone Group (VODPF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 29, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $8.15 versus a price of $1.63, about +400% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of VODPF?
Our model-based fair value for Vodafone Group is $8.15 (as of Sep 29, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $1.63.
What is the quality score of VODPF?
Vodafone Group has a Quality Score of 58/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Vodafone Group (VODPF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $8.15 (as of Sep 29, 2026) from 14 valuation models. Cautious scenario $4.63, optimistic scenario $12.78. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Vodafone Group stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $8.15, about +400% upside versus a price of $1.63 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $4.63, optimistic scenario $12.78. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Vodafone Group (VODPF)?
Vodafone Group reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €40.5B (latest available figure, as of Sep 29, 2026).
Does Vodafone Group pay a dividend?
Vodafone Group currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.82% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 29, 2026).
What growth is priced into Vodafone Group (VODPF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Vodafone Group would have to grow free cash flow by -13.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -1.7 % per year. As of Sep 29, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of VODPF use?
Our models discount Vodafone Group at 8.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.32, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Vodafone Group that is -13.0 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Vodafone Group (VODPF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Vodafone Group grew -1.7 % a year. The price currently implies -13.0 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Vodafone Group (VODPF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.0 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Vodafone Group (-13.0 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Vodafone Group (VODPF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 24.33 %: that much free cash flow Vodafone Group produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Vodafone Group (VODPF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Vodafone Group it is $8.15 per share (as of Sep 29, 2026), against a price of $1.63. It is the blended result of 14 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Vodafone Group stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 29, 2026, VODPF trades below its calculated fair value: price $1.63, fair value $8.15, a gap of about +400% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of VODPF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($1.63); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($8.15). For Vodafone Group the two are $6.52 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Vodafone Group worth?
The market values Vodafone Group at about $39.2B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 29, 2026). Per share that is $1.63; our models calculate a fair value of $8.15 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about VODPF?
Our models span a range for Vodafone Group: cautious scenario $4.63, base $8.15, optimistic $12.78 per share (as of Sep 29, 2026, price $1.63). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How far is VODPF from its 52-week high?
Vodafone Group trades at $1.63, about 5% below its 52-week high of $1.71 and 58% above the low of $1.03 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $8.15 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Vodafone Group?
From the same area (Communication Services) we also value China Mobile Limited, Verizon Communications Inc, T-Mobile US, Inc, AT&T Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Vodafone Group stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 29, 2026: price $1.63, calculated fair value $8.15 (+400%), Quality Score 58/100, from 14 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of VODPF calculated?
We run Vodafone Group through 14 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $8.15, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Vodafone Group currently trades 80 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Vodafone Group (VODPF)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $1.63. Our model-based fair value is $8.15, about +400% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Vodafone Group right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case ($4.63). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The model range is unusually wide ($4.63 to $12.78). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (58/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Key figures of Vodafone Group
How large is the market capitalisation of Vodafone Group (VODPF)?
The market capitalisation of Vodafone Group is $39.2B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Vodafone Group (VODPF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Vodafone Group is 0.83 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Vodafone Group (VODPF)?
Earnings per share at Vodafone Group are $−0.0100. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Vodafone Group (VODPF)?
The dividend yield of Vodafone Group is 2.8%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Vodafone Group (VODPF)?
The net margin of Vodafone Group is −1.0% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Vodafone Group (VODPF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Vodafone Group is 0.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Vodafone Group (VODPF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Vodafone Group is 2.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Vodafone Group (VODPF)?
The operating margin of Vodafone Group is 7.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Vodafone Group (VODPF)?
Revenue at Vodafone Group is growing +7.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg −4.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Vodafone Group (VODPF)?
Earnings per share at Vodafone Group are growing −15.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Vodafone Group (VODPF) carry?
The net debt of Vodafone Group is €43.8B (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 5.2 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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