Verrica Pharmaceuticals Inc (VRCA) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Verrica Pharmaceuticals Inc stock $0.99, price $3.19, that is 68.8% below the price, quality 47 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with one of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 8, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $3.09 – $139.60 · fair‑value band $0.6545 – $1.25 · the $3.19 price screens above the $0.9945 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 8, 2026.
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Verrica Pharmaceuticals Inc., a dermatology therapeutics company, engages in the development and commercialization of medications for the treatment of dermatologic diseases in the United States.
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The company offers YCANTH (VP-102) a drug-device combination that contains a GMP-controlled formulation of cantharidin for the treatment of molluscum in adult and pediatric patients, as well as for the treatment of common warts.
It also develops VP-315, an oncolytic peptide-based injectable therapy that is in phase II clinical trial for the treatment of dermatology oncologic conditions, which include basal cell carcinoma and other dermatological oncology indications.
The company has a collaboration and license agreement with Torii Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. for the development and commercialization of its product candidates for the treatment of molluscum and common warts in Japan; and a license agreement with Lytix Biopharma AS to develop and commercialize VP-315 for use in malignant and pre-malignant dermatological indications.
Verrica Pharmaceuticals Inc. was incorporated in 2013 and is headquartered in West Chester, Pennsylvania.
Stock analysis
Verrica Pharmaceuticals Inc (VRCA) currently trades at $3.19, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $0.9945, 69% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 96/100, which puts the data coverage at low.
Scenario range: $0.6545 (bear) to $1.25 (bull), the price of $3.19 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 47/100 (below-average quality), in the Healthcare sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Verrica Pharmaceuticals Inc reported revenue of $35.6M in FY2025 versus $12.0M in FY2021, a compound +31.2%/yr. Reported net income was −$17.9M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $68.0M Micro · P/S ratio 2.04 · EPS (TTM) $−1.75 · Net margin −103% · Return on equity −240% · Return on assets (EBIT) −62.8% (5-year average) · Operating margin −194% · Revenue (TTM) $30.3M.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 6 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 65% below its 52-week high and 3% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −69%, VRCA screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$0.6545Fair Value $0.9945Bull$1.25
Price $3.19 · Downside -68.8%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
NCAV (Graham)$0.7700$1.17$1.4754
All 1 models by family
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)$0.7700$1.17$1.4754
The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for dilution from new shares.
In the last 6 months, 4 officers or directors bought shares worth $210,890, most recently on Aug 18, 2026. Buying cluster
BuyJohn J. KirbyInterim CFO2× since Nov 25, 2025: 8,536 shares, avg. $4.64$39,643Aug 18, 2026
BuyNoah L. RosenbergCMO2× since Nov 25, 2025: 8,587 shares, avg. $4.73$40,603Aug 18, 2026
BuyJayson RiegerCEO and President, Director2× since Nov 25, 2025: 119,311 shares, avg. $4.41$525,629Aug 17, 2026
BuyDavid ZawitzChief Operating Officer2× since Nov 25, 2025: 16,000 shares, avg. $4.52$72,280Aug 17, 2026
BuyPaul B ManningDirector, 10% owner4,126,142 shares at $4.24$17.5MNov 25, 2025
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.31/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+370.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+57.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+24.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−334.8% (2020) → −33.6% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Biotechnology · 558 stocks
Beats the industry median on 2/9 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score47 · Above median
Fair Value upside−68.8% · Below median
Profitability
Return on assets−38.0% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months)−102.8% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months)−194.5% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)−53.9% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.25× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Biotechnology median · lower = cheaper
P/B2.75× · Pricier than median
P/S (12 months)2.24× · Cheapest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 0
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 0
HEALTH (low debt)37· sector 97
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 22
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Verrica Pharmaceuticals Inc (VRCA) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 8, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $0.9945 versus a price of $3.19, about 69% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of VRCA?
Our model-based fair value for Verrica Pharmaceuticals Inc is $0.9945 (as of Nov 8, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $3.19.
What is the quality score of VRCA?
Verrica Pharmaceuticals Inc has a Quality Score of 47/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Verrica Pharmaceuticals Inc (VRCA)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $0.9945 (as of Nov 8, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario $0.6545, optimistic scenario $1.25. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Verrica Pharmaceuticals Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $0.9945, about 69% lower versus a price of $3.19 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $0.6545, optimistic scenario $1.25. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Verrica Pharmaceuticals Inc (VRCA)?
Verrica Pharmaceuticals Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $30.3M (latest available figure, as of Nov 8, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Verrica Pharmaceuticals Inc (VRCA)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Verrica Pharmaceuticals Inc it is $0.9945 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026), against a price of $3.19. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models in 1 family (Asset-Based).
Is Verrica Pharmaceuticals Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 8, 2026, VRCA trades above its calculated fair value: price $3.19, fair value $0.9945, a gap of about −69% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of VRCA?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($3.19); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($0.9945). For Verrica Pharmaceuticals Inc the two are $2.20 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Verrica Pharmaceuticals Inc worth?
The market values Verrica Pharmaceuticals Inc at about $68.0M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 8, 2026). Per share that is $3.19; our models calculate a fair value of $0.9945 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about VRCA?
Our models span a range for Verrica Pharmaceuticals Inc: cautious scenario $0.6545, base $0.9945, optimistic $1.25 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026, price $3.19). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Verrica Pharmaceuticals Inc (VRCA)?
Balance-sheet figures for Verrica Pharmaceuticals Inc (as of Nov 8, 2026): return on equity −240.4%, debt of 1.25 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 47/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is VRCA from its 52-week high?
Verrica Pharmaceuticals Inc trades at $3.19, about 65% below its 52-week high of $9.10 and 3% above the low of $3.09 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $0.9945 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Verrica Pharmaceuticals Inc?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc, CSL Limited, argenx SE, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Verrica Pharmaceuticals Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 8, 2026: price $3.19, calculated fair value $0.9945 (−69%), Quality Score 47/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of VRCA calculated?
We run Verrica Pharmaceuticals Inc through 1 models from 1 family: Asset-Based. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $0.9945 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Verrica Pharmaceuticals Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Verrica Pharmaceuticals Inc (VRCA)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $3.19. Our model-based fair value is $0.9945, about 69% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Verrica Pharmaceuticals Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($1.25). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (47/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range ($0.6545 to $1.25) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Verrica Pharmaceuticals Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Verrica Pharmaceuticals Inc (VRCA)?
The market capitalisation of Verrica Pharmaceuticals Inc is $68.0M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Verrica Pharmaceuticals Inc (VRCA)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Verrica Pharmaceuticals Inc is 2.04 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Verrica Pharmaceuticals Inc (VRCA)?
Earnings per share at Verrica Pharmaceuticals Inc are $−1.75. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Verrica Pharmaceuticals Inc (VRCA)?
The net margin of Verrica Pharmaceuticals Inc is −103% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Verrica Pharmaceuticals Inc (VRCA)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Verrica Pharmaceuticals Inc is −240% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Verrica Pharmaceuticals Inc (VRCA)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Verrica Pharmaceuticals Inc is −62.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Verrica Pharmaceuticals Inc (VRCA)?
The operating margin of Verrica Pharmaceuticals Inc is −194% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Verrica Pharmaceuticals Inc (VRCA)?
Revenue at Verrica Pharmaceuticals Inc is growing −53.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +57.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does Verrica Pharmaceuticals Inc (VRCA) generate?
The free cash flow of Verrica Pharmaceuticals Inc is −$17.6M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Verrica Pharmaceuticals Inc (VRCA) hold?
Verrica Pharmaceuticals Inc holds more cash than debt, $28.5M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Thin data
Nov 8, 2026
