Verrica Pharmaceuticals Inc (VRCA) Fair Value & Analysis
Healthcare · US · Market cap $100M
Verrica Pharmaceuticals Inc
VRCA · US
Fair value as of: Jul 21, 2026
From 1 valuation models · updated 21 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 21, 2026, revised from $6.48 to $1.17 (−81.9%) since Jun 25, 2026. Share price −18.2% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 77% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($1.47). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (46/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range ($0.7700 to $1.47) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 21, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $3.28 – $139.60 · fair‑value band $0.7700 – $1.47 · the $5.12 price screens above the $1.17 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 21, 2026.
Analysis
Verrica Pharmaceuticals Inc (VRCA) currently trades at $5.12, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $1.17, implying the stock looks roughly 77.2% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 46/100 (below-average quality), in the Healthcare sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: low).
Over the trailing twelve months, Verrica Pharmaceuticals Inc generated revenue of $37.2M at a net margin of -48.0%. Revenue grew 46.1% year over year. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $28.5M. Fundamentals as of Jul 21, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $0.7700 (bear case) to $1.47 (bull case); at $5.12, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 48% below its 52-week high and 56% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at -43% fair-value upside, at -77%, VRCA screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 1 models by family
Notify me when VRCA reaches fair value
Free. You confirm by email (double opt-in) and can unsubscribe anytime in one click.
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 21, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 47 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 20
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Verrica Pharmaceuticals Inc., a dermatology therapeutics company, engages in the development and commercialization of medications for the treatment of dermatologic diseases in the United States.
Full company description
Verrica Pharmaceuticals Inc., a dermatology therapeutics company, engages in the development and commercialization of medications for the treatment of dermatologic diseases in the United States. The company offers YCANTH (VP-102) a drug-device combination that contains a GMP-controlled formulation of cantharidin for the treatment of molluscum in adult and pediatric patients, as well as for the treatment of common warts. It also develops VP-315, an oncolytic peptide-based injectable therapy that is in phase II clinical trial for the treatment of dermatology oncologic conditions, which include basal cell carcinoma and other dermatological oncology indications. The company has a collaboration and license agreement with Torii Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. for the development and commercialization of its product candidates for the treatment of molluscum and common warts in Japan; and a license agreement with Lytix Biopharma AS to develop and commercialize VP-315 for use in malignant and pre-malignant dermatological indications. Verrica Pharmaceuticals Inc. was incorporated in 2013 and is headquartered in West Chester, Pennsylvania.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Verrica Pharmaceuticals Inc reported revenue of $35.6M in FY2025 versus $12.0M in FY2021, a compound +31.2%/yr. Reported net income was −$17.9M in FY2025.
VRCA screens 77% overvalued. Compare with Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated →
Peer Group
Biotechnology · 605 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Biotechnology median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Biotechnology stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 21, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated VRTX | $486.03 | $278.78 | -43% |
| Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc REGN | $664.45 | $594.40 | -11% |
| Samsung Biologics Co 207940 | 1,368,000 KRW | 1,091,384 KRW | -20% |
| Celltrion, Inc 068270 | 175,800 KRW | 76,325 KRW | -57% |
| WuXi Biologics (Cayman) Inc 2269 | HK$39.54 | HK$30.42 | -23% |
| Innovent Biologics, Inc 1801 | HK$86.70 | HK$19.66 | -77% |
| Sino Biopharmaceutical Limited 1177 | HK$5.26 | HK$3.36 | -36% |
| RemeGen Co 688331 | ¥134.45 | ¥23.19 | -83% |
| ALTEOGEN Inc 196170 | 276,500 KRW | 44,444 KRW | -84% |
| Biocon Limited BIOCON | ₹440.70 | ₹57.36 | -87% |
Compare Verrica Pharmaceuticals Inc with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Explore undervalued stocks
More undervalued Healthcare stocks →
Frequently asked questions
Is Verrica Pharmaceuticals Inc (VRCA) overvalued or undervalued?
What is the fair value of VRCA?
What is the quality score of VRCA?
What is the revenue of Verrica Pharmaceuticals Inc (VRCA)?
What is the net profit margin of VRCA?
How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
Track Verrica Pharmaceuticals Inc and try Pro for 14 days
One email gets you 14 days of full Pro (review alerts, the 35,000+ stock screener, the diversification check) plus the monthly Top-25 report of the most undervalued quality stocks. No card, cancel anytime.
Zero risk: nothing is ever charged. After 14 days you decide whether to stay.