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Verrica Pharmaceuticals Inc (VRCA) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Verrica Pharmaceuticals Inc $0.99, price $4.36, upside -77.2%, quality 46 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
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Healthcare · US · ISIN US92511W2070

VP Verrica Pharmaceuticals Inc logo Thin data Sep 23, 2026

Verrica Pharmaceuticals Inc

VRCA · US

Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.

!Fair value $0.9945 · Strongly overvalued (−77%)
!Quality 46/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +24.3 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -102.8% net margin (TTM)
!Moderate debt · negative free cash flow
!Trails peers (2/10)
!Narrow moat 6/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$139.60 $3.28 Fair Value $0.9945 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $3.28 – $139.60 · fair‑value band $0.6545 – $1.25 · the $4.36 price screens above the $0.9945 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

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Company profile

Verrica Pharmaceuticals Inc., a dermatology therapeutics company, engages in the development and commercialization of medications for the treatment of dermatologic diseases in the United States.

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Verrica Pharmaceuticals Inc., a dermatology therapeutics company, engages in the development and commercialization of medications for the treatment of dermatologic diseases in the United States. The company offers YCANTH (VP-102) a drug-device combination that contains a GMP-controlled formulation of cantharidin for the treatment of molluscum in adult and pediatric patients, as well as for the treatment of common warts. It also develops VP-315, an oncolytic peptide-based injectable therapy that is in phase II clinical trial for the treatment of dermatology oncologic conditions, which include basal cell carcinoma and other dermatological oncology indications. The company has a collaboration and license agreement with Torii Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. for the development and commercialization of its product candidates for the treatment of molluscum and common warts in Japan; and a license agreement with Lytix Biopharma AS to develop and commercialize VP-315 for use in malignant and pre-malignant dermatological indications. Verrica Pharmaceuticals Inc. was incorporated in 2013 and is headquartered in West Chester, Pennsylvania.

Stock analysis

Verrica Pharmaceuticals Inc (VRCA) currently trades at $4.36, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $0.9945, implying the stock looks roughly 338.4% overvalued today.

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Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 96/100, which puts the evidence level at low.

Scenario range: $0.6545 (bear) to $1.25 (bull), the price of $4.36 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 46/100 (below-average quality), in the Healthcare sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

Verrica Pharmaceuticals Inc reported revenue of $35.6M in FY2025 versus $12.0M in FY2021, a compound +31.2%/yr. Reported net income was −$17.9M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $92.9M · P/S ratio 2.54 · EPS (TTM) $−1.74 · Net margin −50.3% · Return on equity −240% · Return on assets (EBIT) −62.8% · Operating margin −194% · Revenue (TTM) $30.3M.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 28 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 52% below its 52-week high and 33% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at −5% fair-value upside, at −77%, VRCA screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $0.6545 Fair Value $0.9945 Bull $1.25
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
NCAV (Graham) $0.7200 $0.9700 $1.44 54
All 1 models by family
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $0.7200 $0.9700 $1.44 54

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 46/100

Of which business quality 47 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 24

Profitability 31
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 100
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 33
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 47
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 97
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 12
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 30
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 27
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 0
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 31/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+370.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+57.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+24.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−334.8% (2020) → −33.6% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

VRCA screens 338% overvalued. Compare with Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Biotechnology · 654 stocks

Beats the industry median on 2/9 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 47 · Above median
Fair Value upside −77% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets −44% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM) −103% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) −194% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth −54% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 1.25× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Biotechnology median · lower = cheaper

P/B 3.75× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM) 3.06× · Cheaper than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 0
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 0
HEALTH (low debt)37 · sector 97
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 23

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Biotechnology stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated VRTX $522.38 $574.62 +10%
Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc REGN $801.82 $1,252 +56%
argenx SE ARGX $963.79 $918.60 −5%
Samsung Biologics Co 207940 1,366,000 KRW 1,502,600 KRW +10%
CSL Limited CSL A$179.12 A$197.03 +10%
Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc ALNY $251.65 $218.36 −13%
Royalty Pharma plc RPRX $58.52 $24.22 −59%
BeOne Medicines AG 6160 HK$218.20 HK$169.72 −22%
Celltrion, Inc 068270 177,400 KRW 74,519 KRW −58%
BioNTech SE BNTX $100.87 $63.62 −37%

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Verrica Pharmaceuticals Inc · Fair Value
$0.9945 −338%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Verrica Pharmaceuticals Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/VRCA

Frequently asked questions

Is Verrica Pharmaceuticals Inc (VRCA) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $0.9945 versus a price of $4.36, about −77% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of VRCA?
Our model-based fair value for Verrica Pharmaceuticals Inc is $0.9945 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $4.36.
What is the quality score of VRCA?
Verrica Pharmaceuticals Inc has a Quality Score of 46/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Verrica Pharmaceuticals Inc (VRCA)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $0.9945 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario $0.6545, optimistic scenario $1.25. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Verrica Pharmaceuticals Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $0.9945, about −77% upside versus a price of $4.36 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $0.6545, optimistic scenario $1.25. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Verrica Pharmaceuticals Inc (VRCA)?
Verrica Pharmaceuticals Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $30.3M (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Verrica Pharmaceuticals Inc (VRCA)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Verrica Pharmaceuticals Inc it is $0.9945 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $4.36. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Verrica Pharmaceuticals Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, VRCA trades above its calculated fair value: price $4.36, fair value $0.9945, a gap of about −77% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of VRCA?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($4.36); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($0.9945). For Verrica Pharmaceuticals Inc the two are $3.37 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Verrica Pharmaceuticals Inc worth?
The market values Verrica Pharmaceuticals Inc at about $92.9M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $4.36; our models calculate a fair value of $0.9945 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about VRCA?
Our models span a range for Verrica Pharmaceuticals Inc: cautious scenario $0.6545, base $0.9945, optimistic $1.25 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $4.36). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Verrica Pharmaceuticals Inc (VRCA)?
Balance-sheet figures for Verrica Pharmaceuticals Inc (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity −240.4%, debt of 1.25 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 46/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is VRCA from its 52-week high?
Verrica Pharmaceuticals Inc trades at $4.36, about 52% below its 52-week high of $9.10 and 33% above the low of $3.28 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $0.9945 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Verrica Pharmaceuticals Inc?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc, argenx SE, Samsung Biologics Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Verrica Pharmaceuticals Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $4.36, calculated fair value $0.9945 (−77%), Quality Score 46/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of VRCA calculated?
We run Verrica Pharmaceuticals Inc through 1 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $0.9945, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Verrica Pharmaceuticals Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Verrica Pharmaceuticals Inc (VRCA)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was $4.36. Our model-based fair value is $0.9945, about −77% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Verrica Pharmaceuticals Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($1.25). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (46/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range ($0.6545 to $1.25) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Key figures of Verrica Pharmaceuticals Inc

How large is the market capitalisation of Verrica Pharmaceuticals Inc (VRCA)?
The market capitalisation of Verrica Pharmaceuticals Inc is $92.9M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Verrica Pharmaceuticals Inc (VRCA)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Verrica Pharmaceuticals Inc is 2.54 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Verrica Pharmaceuticals Inc (VRCA)?
Earnings per share at Verrica Pharmaceuticals Inc are $−1.74. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Verrica Pharmaceuticals Inc (VRCA)?
The net margin of Verrica Pharmaceuticals Inc is −50.3% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Verrica Pharmaceuticals Inc (VRCA)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Verrica Pharmaceuticals Inc is −240% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Verrica Pharmaceuticals Inc (VRCA)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Verrica Pharmaceuticals Inc is −62.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Verrica Pharmaceuticals Inc (VRCA)?
The operating margin of Verrica Pharmaceuticals Inc is −194% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Verrica Pharmaceuticals Inc (VRCA)?
Revenue at Verrica Pharmaceuticals Inc is growing −53.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +57.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does Verrica Pharmaceuticals Inc (VRCA) generate?
The free cash flow of Verrica Pharmaceuticals Inc is −$17.6M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Verrica Pharmaceuticals Inc (VRCA) hold?
Verrica Pharmaceuticals Inc holds more cash than debt, $28.5M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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