Vistagen Therapeutics, Inc (VTGN) Fair Value & Analysis
Healthcare · US · Market cap $26.4M
Vistagen Therapeutics, Inc
VTGN · US
Fair value as of: Jul 22, 2026
From 1 valuation models · updated 20 days ago
Share price +22.5% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 47% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($0.2598). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (22/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- The model range is unusually wide ($0.0676 to $0.2598). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 22, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $0.2260 – $103.50 · fair‑value band $0.0676 – $0.2598 · the $0.2876 price screens above the $0.1530 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 22, 2026.
Analysis
Vistagen Therapeutics, Inc (VTGN) currently trades at $0.2876, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $0.1530, implying the stock looks roughly 46.8% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 22/100 (below-average quality), in the Healthcare sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: low).
Trailing-twelve-month revenue stands at $1.3M. Revenue grew 29.5% year over year. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $65.6M. Fundamentals as of Jul 22, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $0.0676 (bear case) to $0.2598 (bull case); at $0.2876, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at -43% fair-value upside, at -47%, VTGN screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 1 models by family
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 22, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 26 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 15
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Vistagen Therapeutics, Inc., a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company, engages in the development and commercialization of therapies for neuropsychiatric and neurological disorders.
Full company description
Vistagen Therapeutics, Inc., a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company, engages in the development and commercialization of therapies for neuropsychiatric and neurological disorders. The company's product pipeline includes Fasedienol, an investigational pherine nasal spray that is in Phase III clinical trial for the treatment of anxiety in adults with social anxiety disorder; and Itruvone, an odorless synthetic investigational neuroactive pherine nasal spray, which is in Phase IIa clinical trial to treat major depressive disorder. It also develops refisolone, an odorless and tasteless synthetic investigational pherine nasal spray that is in Phase IIa clinical trial for the treatment of vasomotor symptoms, including hot flashes due to menopause, premenstrual dysphoric disorder, and other women's health disorders; PH15, an investigational pherine nasal spray, which is in Phase IIa clinical trial for the treatment to improve cognitive impairment caused by mental fatigue disorders; PH284, an odorless and tasteless synthetic investigational pherine nasal spray that is in Phase IIa clinical trial to treat loss of appetite associated with chronic disorders, such as cancer cachexia; and AV-101, an oral prodrug that targets N-methyl-D-aspartate receptor in the brain for treating depression and neurological disorders. It has a license and collaboration agreement with AffaMed Therapeutics, Inc. to develop, manufacture, and commercialize fasedienol for multiple anxiety-related disorders. Vistagen Therapeutics, Inc. was founded in 1998 and is headquartered in South San Francisco, California.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Vistagen Therapeutics, Inc reported revenue of $486K in FY2025 versus $1.1M in FY2021, a compound −18.3%/yr. Reported net income was −$51.4M in FY2025.
VTGN screens 47% overvalued. Compare with Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated →
Peer Group
Biotechnology · 601 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Biotechnology median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Biotechnology stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 22, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated VRTX | $486.03 | $278.78 | -43% |
| Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc REGN | $664.45 | $594.40 | -11% |
| Samsung Biologics Co 207940 | 1,368,000 KRW | 1,091,384 KRW | -20% |
| Celltrion, Inc 068270 | 175,800 KRW | 76,325 KRW | -57% |
| WuXi Biologics (Cayman) Inc 2269 | HK$39.54 | HK$30.42 | -23% |
| Innovent Biologics, Inc 1801 | HK$86.70 | HK$19.66 | -77% |
| Sino Biopharmaceutical Limited 1177 | HK$5.26 | HK$3.36 | -36% |
| ALTEOGEN Inc 196170 | 276,500 KRW | 44,444 KRW | -84% |
| RemeGen Co 688331 | ¥134.02 | ¥26.99 | -80% |
| Biocon Limited BIOCON | ₹440.70 | ₹57.36 | -87% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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