Waterdrop Inc (WDH) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Waterdrop Inc $1.04, price $1.03, upside +0.9%, quality 67 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $0.8353 – $5.98 · fair‑value band $0.9491 – $1.25 · the $1.03 price screens below the $1.04 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
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Waterdrop Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides online insurance brokerage services to match and connect users with related insurance products underwritten by insurance companies in the People's Republic of China. The company offers short-term and long-term health and life insurance products and services.
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Waterdrop Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides online insurance brokerage services to match and connect users with related insurance products underwritten by insurance companies in the People's Republic of China. The company offers short-term and long-term health and life insurance products and services. It also operates a medical crowdfunding platform; and E-Find, a clinical trial patient recruitment platform for pharmaceutical companies to find matches for clinical trials. In addition, the company provides technical services to insurance brokerage or agency companies through customer relationship management systems. Waterdrop Inc. was founded in 2016 and is headquartered in Beijing, the People's Republic of China.
Stock analysis
Waterdrop Inc ADR (WDH) currently trades at $1.03, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $1.04, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 0.9%).
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Valuation
How firm this estimate is: it rests on 26 models at a data quality of 95/100, which puts the evidence level at medium.
Scenario range: $0.9491 (bear) to $1.25 (bull), the price of $1.03 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 67/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Waterdrop Inc ADR reported revenue of $3.9B in FY2025 versus $3.2B in FY2021, a compound +4.8%/yr. Reported net income was $553M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $402M · P/E ratio 5.1 · P/S ratio 0.73 · EPS (TTM) $0.2200 · Dividend yield 5.2% · Net margin 14.3% · Return on equity 11.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) −3.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 52 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 46% below its 52-week high and 6% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −22% fair-value upside, at 1%, WDH screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $0.9491Fair Value $1.04Bull $1.25
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.60/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+39.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 7 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+48.9%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−16.4% (2020) → 9.3% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: rate outside our plausibility band
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (95 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Insurance - Diversified · 81 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/9 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score70 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+1.9% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)11.0% · Below median
Return on assets3.3% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)12.5% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)6.4% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth64.8% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)5.2% · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Insurance - Diversified median · lower = cheaper
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As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $1.04 versus a price of $1.03, about +1% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of WDH?
Our model-based fair value for Waterdrop Inc ADR is $1.04 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $1.03.
What is the quality score of WDH?
Waterdrop Inc ADR has a Quality Score of 67/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Waterdrop Inc (WDH)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $1.04 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario $0.9491, optimistic scenario $1.25. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Waterdrop Inc ADR stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $1.04, about +1% upside versus a price of $1.03 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario $0.9491, optimistic scenario $1.25. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Waterdrop Inc (WDH)?
Waterdrop Inc ADR reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $4.5B (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
Does Waterdrop Inc ADR pay a dividend?
Waterdrop Inc ADR currently shows a dividend yield of about 5.22% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 27, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Waterdrop Inc (WDH)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Waterdrop Inc ADR it is $1.04 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of $1.03. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Waterdrop Inc ADR stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, WDH trades below its calculated fair value: price $1.03, fair value $1.04, a gap of about +1% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of WDH?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($1.03); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($1.04). For Waterdrop Inc ADR the two are $0.0090 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Waterdrop Inc ADR worth?
The market values Waterdrop Inc ADR at about $402M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is $1.03; our models calculate a fair value of $1.04 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about WDH?
Our models span a range for Waterdrop Inc ADR: cautious scenario $0.9491, base $1.04, optimistic $1.25 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price $1.03). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of WDH?
Waterdrop Inc ADR trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 5.1 (as of Sep 27, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $1.04 is built from several models across several years.
How solid is the balance sheet of Waterdrop Inc (WDH)?
Balance-sheet figures for Waterdrop Inc ADR (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity 11.0%. They feed the Quality Score of 67/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is WDH from its 52-week high?
Waterdrop Inc ADR trades at $1.03, about 46% below its 52-week high of $1.92 and 6% above the low of $0.9734 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $1.04 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Waterdrop Inc ADR?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Allianz SE, Zurich Insurance Group, AXA SA, Assicurazioni Generali S.p.A, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Waterdrop Inc ADR stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price $1.03, calculated fair value $1.04 (+1%), Quality Score 67/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of WDH calculated?
We run Waterdrop Inc ADR through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $1.04, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Waterdrop Inc ADR currently trades 1 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Waterdrop Inc (WDH)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $1.03. Our model-based fair value is $1.04, about +1% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Waterdrop Inc ADR right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Key figures of Waterdrop Inc ADR
How large is the market capitalisation of Waterdrop Inc (WDH)?
The market capitalisation of Waterdrop Inc ADR is $402M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Waterdrop Inc (WDH)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Waterdrop Inc ADR is 0.73 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Waterdrop Inc (WDH)?
Earnings per share at Waterdrop Inc ADR are $0.2200 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 5.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Waterdrop Inc (WDH)?
The dividend yield of Waterdrop Inc ADR is 5.2% (payout 24.4%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Waterdrop Inc (WDH)?
The net margin of Waterdrop Inc ADR is 14.3% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Waterdrop Inc (WDH)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Waterdrop Inc ADR is 11.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Waterdrop Inc (WDH)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Waterdrop Inc ADR is −3.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Waterdrop Inc (WDH)?
The operating margin of Waterdrop Inc ADR is 6.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Waterdrop Inc (WDH)?
Revenue at Waterdrop Inc ADR is growing +64.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +11.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Waterdrop Inc (WDH)?
Earnings per share at Waterdrop Inc ADR are growing −8.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Waterdrop Inc (WDH) generate?
The free cash flow of Waterdrop Inc ADR is $214M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Waterdrop Inc (WDH) hold?
Waterdrop Inc ADR holds more cash than debt, $1.1B net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Some data
Sep 27, 2026