Waterdrop Inc (WDH) Fair Value & Analysis
Financial Services · US · Market cap $402M
Waterdrop Inc
WDH · US
Fair value as of: Jul 27, 2026
From 6 valuation models · updated 14 days ago
Share price −16.0% over the past month.
A solid business, screening 47% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price is below even our cautious bear case ($1.11). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
- Solid quality (67/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
- For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $0.8353 – $8.90 · fair‑value band $1.11 – $1.84 · the $1.00 price screens below the $1.47 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 27, 2026.
Analysis
Waterdrop Inc (WDH) currently trades at $1.00, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $1.47, implying the stock looks roughly 47.4% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 67/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, Waterdrop Inc generated revenue of $4.5B at a net margin of 12.5%. Revenue grew 64.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 11.0%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $1.1B. Fundamentals as of Jul 27, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $1.11 (bear case) to $1.84 (bull case); at $1.00, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 53% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at -12% fair-value upside, at 47%, WDH screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 6 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples ($25.78) versus Dividend Discount ($5.98). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 27, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 66 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 24
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Waterdrop Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides online insurance brokerage services to match and connect users with related insurance products underwritten by insurance companies in the People's Republic of China. The company offers short-term and long-term health and life insurance products and services.
Full company description
Waterdrop Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides online insurance brokerage services to match and connect users with related insurance products underwritten by insurance companies in the People's Republic of China. The company offers short-term and long-term health and life insurance products and services. It also operates a medical crowdfunding platform; and E-Find, a clinical trial patient recruitment platform for pharmaceutical companies to find matches for clinical trials. In addition, the company provides technical services to insurance brokerage or agency companies through customer relationship management systems. Waterdrop Inc. was founded in 2016 and is headquartered in Beijing, the People's Republic of China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Waterdrop Inc reported revenue of $3.9B in FY2025 versus $3.2B in FY2021, a compound +4.8%/yr. Reported net income was $553M in FY2025.
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Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Waterdrop (WDH) Q1 2026 Earnings Transcript
- Waterdrop Q1 Earnings Call Highlights
- Waterdrop GAAP EPS of $0.00, revenue of $180.09M
- Atlantic Grupa takes stake in hydration “cubes” brand Waterdrop
Peer Group
Insurance - Diversified · 84 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Insurance - Diversified median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Insurance - Diversified stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 27, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Berkshire Hathaway Inc BRKB | 8,562 MXN | 10,844 MXN | +27% |
| Allianz SE ALV | €421.00 | €369.31 | -12% |
| Zurich Insurance Group ZURN | CHF 624.40 | CHF 619.80 | -1% |
| AXA SA AXAN | 888.28 MXN | 1,249 MXN | +41% |
| Assicurazioni Generali S.p.A G | €42.90 | €12.18 | -72% |
| Sun Life Financial Inc SLF | C$114.20 | C$87.83 | -23% |
| BB Seguridade Participações S.A BBSE3 | R$40.71 | R$60.39 | +48% |
| Tryg A/S TRYG | kr 154.00 | kr 116.45 | -24% |
| PT Sinar Mas Multiartha Tbk SMMA | 20,625 IDR | 4,176 IDR | -80% |
| Caixa Seguridade Participações S.A CXSE3 | R$21.77 | R$18.60 | -15% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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