Wagners Holding (WGN) Fair Value & Analysis

Basic Materials · AU · Market cap A$823M

A solid business, but screening 56% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

• The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (A$2.42). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
• Solid but not exceptional quality (61/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
• A fairly wide model range (A$1.27 to A$2.42) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range A$0.5094 – A$4.97 · fair‑value band A$1.27 – A$2.42 · the A$4.35 price screens above the A$1.93 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.

Full chart & analysis →

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Analysis

Wagners Holding (WGN) currently trades at A$4.35, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$1.93, implying the stock looks roughly 55.6% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 61/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).

Over the trailing twelve months, Wagners Holding generated revenue of A$458M at a net margin of 6.9%. Revenue grew 11.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 18.3%. Net debt stands at A$166M. Fundamentals as of Jul 18, 2026

Our scenario range runs from A$1.27 (bear case) to A$2.42 (bull case); at A$4.35, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 13% below its 52-week high and 143% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at -59% fair-value upside, at -56%, WGN screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Widest divergence: Multiples (A$1.93) versus Asset-Based (A$0.5200). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

Key figures & financial health

Quality Score breakdown

About the company

Wagners Holding Company Limited engages in the production and sale of construction materials and related building materials in Australia, the United States, New Zealand, the United Kingdom, Papua New Guinea, and Malaysia.

Full company description

Wagners Holding Company Limited engages in the production and sale of construction materials and related building materials in Australia, the United States, New Zealand, the United Kingdom, Papua New Guinea, and Malaysia. It operates through four segments: Construction Materials (CM), Project Services (Projects), Composite Fibre Technology (CFT), and Earth Friendly Concrete (EFC). The CF segment provides cement, flyash, ready-mix concrete, precast concrete products, aggregates, and reinforcing steel, as well as mobile concrete, crushing, and haulage services through medium to long-term contracts. This segment serves customers in the construction, infrastructure, and resources industries. The Projects segment supplies a range of project services. The CFT segment offers new generation building materials and CFT. The company EFC segment provides new generation building material and EFC technology. The company offers other ancillary services. Wagners Holding Company Limited was founded in 1989 and is headquartered in Wellcamp, Australia.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Wagners Holding reported revenue of A$431M in FY2025 versus A$321M in FY2021, a compound +7.7%/yr. Reported net income was A$22.7M in FY2025, compounding +22.8%/yr from FY2021.

WGN screens 56% overvalued. Compare with CRH plc →

Peer Group

Building Materials · 254 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation Multiples vs Building Materials median · lower = cheaper

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

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Frequently asked questions

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.