White Mountains Insurance Group (WTM) Fair Value & Analysis
Financial Services · US · Market cap $5.4B
White Mountains Insurance Group
WTM · US
Fair value as of: Jul 18, 2026
From 4 valuation models · updated 23 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 18, 2026, revised from $4,039 to $4,423 (+9.5%) since Jun 26, 2026. Share price −0.8% over the past month.
A solid business, screening 106% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price is below even our cautious bear case ($3,317). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
- Solid quality (61/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
- For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $983.71 – $2,319 · fair‑value band $3,317 – $5,529 · the $2,149 price screens below the $4,423 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.
Analysis
White Mountains Insurance Group (WTM) currently trades at $2,149, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $4,423, implying the stock looks roughly 105.8% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 61/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: medium), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, White Mountains Insurance Group generated revenue of $2.8B at a net margin of 37.0%. Revenue declined 10.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 19.7%. Net debt stands at $652M. Fundamentals as of Jul 18, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $3,317 (bear case) to $5,529 (bull case); at $2,149, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 8% below its 52-week high and 30% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at 8% fair-value upside, at 106%, WTM screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 4 models by family
Widest divergence: Economic Profit ($3,743) versus Asset-Based ($1,468). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 18, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 61 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 66
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
White Mountains Insurance Group, Ltd. provides insurance services in the United States, the United Kingdom, Bermuda, and internationally. It operates through Ark/WM Outrigger, HG Global, Kudu, Distinguished, and Other Operations segments.
Full company description
White Mountains Insurance Group, Ltd. provides insurance services in the United States, the United Kingdom, Bermuda, and internationally. It operates through Ark/WM Outrigger, HG Global, Kudu, Distinguished, and Other Operations segments. The company offers property insurance and reinsurance; specialty insurance and reinsurance consisting of aviation, contingency, cyber, fine art and specie, mortgage, nuclear, political and credit, space, surety, and terrorism and political violence; marine and energy insurance and reinsurance; casualty insurance and reinsurance, such as medical malpractice, and professional and general liability; and accident and health insurance and reinsurance, which includes personal accident, sickness, disability, travel, short-term life, and medical products through brokers, managing general agents (MGA), and reinsurance intermediaries. It also provides municipal bond guarantee reinsurance, which focuses on single risk limits for small-to-medium sized, and public investment grade municipal bonds that are issued to finance public purpose projects, including schools, utilities, and transportation facilities. In addition, the company offers capital solutions for boutique asset and wealth managers for generational ownership transfers, management buyouts, acquisition and growth finance, and legacy partner liquidity; strategic advice; investment management; and specialty electrical contracting services. Further, it operates as a full-service MGA and program administrator for specialty property and casualty insurance for the real estate and hospitality end markets, and start-up programs; and an MGA for leisure travel and global expatriate medical insurance in Israel, the European Union, and Australia. The company was formerly known as Fund American Enterprises Holdings, Inc. and changed its name to White Mountains Insurance Group, Ltd. in 1999. White Mountains Insurance Group, Ltd. was incorporated in 1980 and is headquartered in Hamilton, Bermuda.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
White Mountains Insurance Group reported revenue of $2.7B in FY2025 versus $614M in FY2021, a compound +44.9%/yr. Reported net income was $1.1B in FY2025.
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Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- WHITE MOUNTAINS REPORTS SECOND QUARTER RESULTS
- White Mountains (WTM) is an Incredible Growth Stock: 3 Reasons Why
- White Mountains Insurance Group is Now Oversold (WTM)
- White Mountains to Hold 2026 Annual Investor Information Meeting on June 5, 2026
Peer Group
Insurance - Property & Casualty · 120 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Insurance - Property & Casualty median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Insurance - Property & Casualty stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 18, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| The Progressive Corporation PGR | $234.48 | $252.50 | +8% |
| Chubb Limited CB | $337.44 | $345.56 | +2% |
| The Travelers Companies, Inc TRV | $368.98 | $384.42 | +4% |
| The Allstate Corporation ALL | $251.61 | $503.22 | +100% |
| The People's Insurance Company 601319 | ¥7.06 | ¥13.71 | +94% |
| Intact Financial Corporation IFC | C$294.02 | C$247.44 | -16% |
| Fairfax Financial Holdings FFH | C$2,327 | C$3,252 | +40% |
| QBE Insurance Group QBE | A$25.47 | A$19.42 | -24% |
| Samsung Fire & Marine Insurance Co 000810 | 648,000 KRW | 658,771 KRW | +2% |
| Powszechny Zaklad Ubezpieczen SA PZU | 69.80 PLN | 100.85 PLN | +44% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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