Winton Land Ltd (WTN) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Winton Land Ltd A$1.30, price A$0.91, upside +42.9%, quality 47 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
57‑month range A$0.9100 – A$3.67 · fair‑value band A$0.7400 – A$2.16 · the A$0.9100 price screens below the A$1.30 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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Winton Land Limited engages in the real estate business in New Zealand and Australia. The company operates through Residential Development, Retirement Villages, and Commercial Portfolio segments. The Residential Development segment designs, develops, markets, and sells residential properties, such as land lots, dwellings, townhouses, and apartments.
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Winton Land Limited engages in the real estate business in New Zealand and Australia. The company operates through Residential Development, Retirement Villages, and Commercial Portfolio segments. The Residential Development segment designs, develops, markets, and sells residential properties, such as land lots, dwellings, townhouses, and apartments. The Retirement Villages segment develop and operate retirement villages. The Commercial Portfolio segment engages in leasing of real estate properties. The company was incorporated in 2017 and is based in Auckland, New Zealand.
Stock analysis
Winton Land Ltd (WTN) currently trades at A$0.9100, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$1.30, implying the stock looks roughly 30.0% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of A$1.45 per share, and 11 of the 14 models we run sit above the A$0.9100 price.
Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at A$0.5900, and 3 of the 14 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: A$0.7400 (bear) to A$2.16 (bull), the price of A$0.9100 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 47/100 (below-average quality), in the Real Estate sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Winton Land Ltd reported revenue of 155M NZD in FY2025 versus 177M NZD in FY2021, a compound −3.2%/yr. Reported net income was 10.3M NZD in FY2025, compounding −31.2%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap A$653M (≈ $458M) · P/E ratio 73.3 · P/S ratio 4.87 · EPS (TTM) A$0.0300 · Dividend yield 1.2% · Net margin 6.6% · Return on equity 2.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 8.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 43 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 60% below its 52-week high and at its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at 54% fair-value upside, at 43%, WTN screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear A$0.7400Fair Value A$1.30Bull A$2.16
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 12 months old). Earnings retained since then (A$0.0300 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.89/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−4.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−0.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+38.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 6 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+20.3%
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−24.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−26.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.2%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−28% → 10%
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+6.4%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (figures in NZD, New Zealand: IMF forecast 2.3% a year to 2030, 3.0% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +4.1% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Real Estate - Development · 578 stocks
Beats the industry median on 3/14 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score46 · Below median
Fair Value upside+43% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)2% · Below median
Return on assets1% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)11% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)−11% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−60% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)1.2% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.12× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Real Estate - Development median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Winton Land Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/WTN
Frequently asked questions
Is Winton Land Ltd (WTN) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$1.30 versus a price of A$0.9100, about +43% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of WTN?
Our model-based fair value for Winton Land Ltd is A$1.30 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$0.9100.
What is the quality score of WTN?
Winton Land Ltd has a Quality Score of 47/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Winton Land Ltd (WTN)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$1.30 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 14 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$0.7400, optimistic scenario A$2.16. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Winton Land Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$1.30, about +43% upside versus a price of A$0.9100 (undervalued). Cautious scenario A$0.7400, optimistic scenario A$2.16. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Winton Land Ltd (WTN)?
Winton Land Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 107M NZD (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does Winton Land Ltd pay a dividend?
Winton Land Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.23% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Winton Land Ltd (WTN)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Winton Land Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +6.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +38.3 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of WTN use?
Our models discount Winton Land Ltd at 9.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.07, country premium for Australia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Winton Land Ltd that is +6.4 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Winton Land Ltd (WTN) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Winton Land Ltd grew +38.3 % a year. The price currently implies +6.4 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Winton Land Ltd (WTN) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +1.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Winton Land Ltd (+6.4 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Winton Land Ltd (WTN)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 6.59 %: that much free cash flow Winton Land Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Winton Land Ltd (WTN)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Winton Land Ltd it is A$1.30 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of A$0.9100. It is the blended result of 14 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Winton Land Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, WTN trades below its calculated fair value: price A$0.9100, fair value A$1.30, a gap of about +43% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of WTN?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$0.9100); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$1.30). For Winton Land Ltd the two are A$0.3900 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Winton Land Ltd worth?
The market values Winton Land Ltd at about A$653M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is A$0.9100; our models calculate a fair value of A$1.30 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about WTN?
Our models span a range for Winton Land Ltd: cautious scenario A$0.7400, base A$1.30, optimistic A$2.16 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price A$0.9100). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of WTN?
Winton Land Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 73.3 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of A$1.30 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.9, P/S 4.3, EV/EBITDA 39.1.
How solid is the balance sheet of Winton Land Ltd (WTN)?
Balance-sheet figures for Winton Land Ltd (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 2.2%, debt of 0.12 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 47/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is WTN from its 52-week high?
Winton Land Ltd trades at A$0.9100, about 60% below its 52-week high of A$2.27 and at the low of A$0.9100 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$1.30 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Winton Land Ltd?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value Sun Hung Kai Properties Limited, China Resources Land Limited, Vinhomes Joint Stock Company, CK Asset Holdings, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Winton Land Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price A$0.9100, calculated fair value A$1.30 (+43%), Quality Score 47/100, from 14 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of WTN calculated?
We run Winton Land Ltd through 14 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of A$1.30, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Winton Land Ltd currently trades 43 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Winton Land Ltd (WTN)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was A$0.9100. Our model-based fair value is A$1.30, about +43% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Winton Land Ltd right now?
The model range is unusually wide (A$0.7400 to A$2.16). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (47/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Key figures of Winton Land Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Winton Land Ltd (WTN)?
The market capitalisation of Winton Land Ltd is A$653M (≈ $458M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Winton Land Ltd (WTN)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Winton Land Ltd is 4.87 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Winton Land Ltd (WTN)?
Earnings per share at Winton Land Ltd are A$0.0300 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 73.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Winton Land Ltd (WTN)?
The dividend yield of Winton Land Ltd is 1.2% (payout 37.4%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Winton Land Ltd (WTN)?
The net margin of Winton Land Ltd is 6.6% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Winton Land Ltd (WTN)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Winton Land Ltd is 2.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Winton Land Ltd (WTN)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Winton Land Ltd is 8.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Winton Land Ltd (WTN)?
The operating margin of Winton Land Ltd is −11.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Winton Land Ltd (WTN)?
Revenue at Winton Land Ltd is growing −60.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg −0.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Winton Land Ltd (WTN)?
Earnings per share at Winton Land Ltd are growing +97.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Winton Land Ltd (WTN) carry?
The net debt of Winton Land Ltd is 112M NZD (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 4.9 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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