Winton Land Limited (WTN) Fair Value & Analysis
Real Estate · AU · Market cap A$653M
Fair value as of: Jul 11, 2026
From 14 valuation models · updated 30 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 11, 2026, revised from A$1.16 to A$0.9600 (−17.2%) since Jun 26, 2026. Share price −1.4% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 56% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (A$0.9600). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (47/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 11, 2026.
How to read this chart
56‑month range A$1.60 – A$3.67 · fair‑value band A$0.6400 – A$0.9600 · the A$2.17 price screens above the A$0.9600 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 11, 2026.
Analysis
Winton Land Limited (WTN) currently trades at A$2.17, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$0.9600, implying the stock looks roughly 55.8% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 47/100 (below-average quality), in the Real Estate sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Winton Land Limited generated revenue of A$107M at a net margin of 10.7%. Revenue declined 60.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 2.2%. Net debt stands at A$112M. Fundamentals as of Jul 11, 2026
Our scenario range runs from A$0.6400 (bear case) to A$0.9600 (bull case); at A$2.17, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 4% below its 52-week high and 16% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at 32% fair-value upside, at -56%, WTN screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 14 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (A$1.38) versus Multiples (A$0.5900). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 11, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 49 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 65
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Winton Land Limited engages in the real estate business in New Zealand and Australia. The company operates through Residential Development, Retirement Villages, and Commercial Portfolio segments. The Residential Development segment designs, develops, markets, and sells residential properties, such as land lots, dwellings, townhouses, and apartments.
Full company description
Winton Land Limited engages in the real estate business in New Zealand and Australia. The company operates through Residential Development, Retirement Villages, and Commercial Portfolio segments. The Residential Development segment designs, develops, markets, and sells residential properties, such as land lots, dwellings, townhouses, and apartments. The Retirement Villages segment develop and operate retirement villages. The Commercial Portfolio segment engages in leasing of real estate properties. The company was incorporated in 2017 and is based in Auckland, New Zealand.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Winton Land Limited reported revenue of A$155M in FY2025 versus A$177M in FY2021, a compound −3.2%/yr. Reported net income was A$10.3M in FY2025, compounding −31.2%/yr from FY2021.
WTN screens 56% overvalued. Compare with DLF Limited →
Peer Group
Real Estate - Development · 588 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Real Estate - Development median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Real Estate - Development stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 11, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| DLF Limited DLF | ₹657.75 | ₹159.49 | -76% |
| Lodha Developers Limited LODHA | ₹1,188 | ₹583.43 | -51% |
| PT Pantai Indah Kapuk Dua Tbk, PANI | 6,125 IDR | 1,330 IDR | -78% |
| Oberoi Realty Limited OBEROIRLTY | ₹1,925 | ₹1,183 | -39% |
| Godrej Properties Limited GODREJPROP | ₹2,102 | ₹1,044 | -50% |
| PT Jaya Real Property, Tbk., JRPT | 1,080 IDR | 1,674 IDR | +55% |
| PT Bumi Serpong Damai Tbk, BSDE | 555.00 IDR | 1,388 IDR | +150% |
| PT Sentul City Tbk, BKSL | 64.00 IDR | 84.16 IDR | +32% |
| PT Ciputra Development Tbk, CTRA | 555.00 IDR | 1,388 IDR | +150% |
| PT Duta Pertiwi Tbk DUTI | 4,100 IDR | 6,239 IDR | +52% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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