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Xiaomi Corporation (XIACF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Xiaomi Corporation $3.89, price $3.10, upside +25.5%, quality 47 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? Yes
- Good quality? No
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XC
Broad data
Sep 29, 2026
Broad data
Sep 29, 2026
Xiaomi Corporation
XIACF · USSpeculativeUpside exists, but weak quality makes the signal speculative.
✓Fair value $3.89 · Undervalued (+25.5%)
!Quality 47/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +12.6 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 8.0% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
!Narrow moat 39/100
!The models disagree: range $2.16 to $7.56
What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $1.08 – $7.90 · fair‑value band $2.16 – $7.56 · the $3.10 price screens below the $3.89 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.
Company profile
Xiaomi Corporation, an investment holding company, engages in the development and sales of smartphones in Mainland China and internationally. It operates through Smartphones, IoT and Lifestyle Products, Internet Services, and smart electric vehicles segments.
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Xiaomi Corporation, an investment holding company, engages in the development and sales of smartphones in Mainland China and internationally. It operates through Smartphones, IoT and Lifestyle Products, Internet Services, and smart electric vehicles segments. The company also offers internet of things (IoT) and lifestyle products comprising smart large home appliances, smart TVs, tablets, wearables and other IoT and lifestyle products; hardware repairment services for products; installation services for certain IoT products; and sale of materials. In addition, it provides internet services, such as advertising, online game, and fintech services; and development, manufacture, and sales of smart electric vehicles. Further, the company in the wholesale and retail of smartphones and ecosystem partners' products; investment activities; sales of smart hardware; software and hardware development; procurement and sales of smartphones, ecosystem partners' products and spare parts, and raw materials; operation of retail stores; and commercial factoring and e-commerce business. Additionally, it provides intra-group capital supervision, collection, remittance, credit guarantee, and interest rate risk management; customer; software related; promotion; electronic payment technology; and technical services. Xiaomi Corporation was incorporated in 2010 and is headquartered in Beijing, the People's Republic of China.
Stock analysis
Xiaomi Corporation (XIACF) currently trades at $3.10, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $3.89, implying the stock looks roughly 20.3% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $6.24 per share, and 16 of the 24 models we run sit above the $3.10 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $1.00, and 8 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $2.16 (bear) to $7.56 (bull), the price of $3.10 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 47/100 (below-average quality), in the Technology sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Xiaomi Corporation reported revenue of 445B CNY in FY2025 versus 328B CNY in FY2021, a compound +7.9%/yr. Reported net income was 40.6B CNY in FY2025, compounding +20.3%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $82.8B · P/E ratio 12.9 · P/S ratio 1.18 · EPS (TTM) $0.2300 · Net margin 9.1% · Return on equity 14.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.5% · Operating margin 4.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 57% below its 52-week high and 11% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −37% fair-value upside, at 25%, XIACF screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $2.16
Fair Value $3.89
Bull $7.56
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.1739 per share) are deliberately not added.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF
$2.13
$3.59
$7.70
74
Growth DCF
$2.04
$3.99
$7.67
73
EPV
$1.12
$1.30
$1.46
72
All 24 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF
$2.13
$3.59
$7.70
74
Owner Earnings
$3.44
$7.69
$16.50
70
5Y Revenue Exit
$1.71
$3.11
$5.72
68
5Y EBITDA Exit
$1.93
$3.60
$6.51
71
5Y P/E Exit
$3.26
$6.97
$11.76
67
10Y Revenue Exit
$1.77
$3.46
$5.58
64
10Y EBITDA Exit
$1.99
$3.88
$7.27
64
10Y P/E Exit
$2.91
$6.35
$12.28
59
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd
$1.54
$10.57
$14.82
60
Lynch FV
$3.11
$4.44
$5.77
58
PEG = 1.0
$3.11
$4.44
$5.77
55
EPV
$1.12
$1.30
$1.46
72
Multiples
P/E Multiple
$3.74
$4.99
$6.24
61
P/S Multiple
$2.24
$2.99
$3.74
56
P/B Multiple
$2.89
$3.86
$4.82
53
EV/EBIT
$2.17
$2.87
$3.58
65
EV/EBITDA
$1.90
$2.52
$3.14
66
EV/Revenue
$1.48
$2.09
$2.70
52
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
$0.7400
$1.00
$1.49
52
Growth DCF
Growth DCF
$2.04
$3.99
$7.67
73
Rev-Margin DCF
$1.71
$3.25
$5.52
69
Economic Profit
Residual Income
$1.51
$2.00
$3.16
67
ROIC Compounder
$1.12
$1.30
$1.46
71
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E
$4.37
$6.24
$8.11
66
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
47/100
Of which business quality 49 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 28
Profitability
51
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
59
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
34
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
66
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
32
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
62
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
21
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
4
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
47
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
78/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+21.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+16.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +20.9% a year
Revenue growth 10 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+20.9%
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis.
≈ +1.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+1.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.14.9% vs 51.0%, slowing
Profit margin 2019 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.4% → 6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Rate on operating basis: 2025 sits 120% above its own trend.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+8.3%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+14.6%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in CNY, China: IMF forecast 1.7% a year to 2030, 1.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +6.5% a year for the price and +12.7% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)+8.5%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+19.4%
Projected 2028 (sales)+17.2%
Projected 2029 (sales)+15.1%
Projected 2030 (sales)+12.9%
Watch XIACF, get fair value alerts →
Recent news
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (100 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.
Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.
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Context: sector, industry, market
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: US Stocks
- Valuation of the USA market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
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| Goertek Inc 002241 | ¥23.94 | ¥14.66 | −39% |
| Anker Innovations Limited 300866 | ¥122.60 | ¥77.69 | −37% |
| Shenzhen Transsion Holdings 688036 | ¥54.92 | ¥54.13 | −1% |
| Dixon Technologies (India) Limited DIXON | ₹13,390 | ₹4,022 | −70% |
| TCL Electronics Holdings 1070 | HK$16.46 | HK$21.39 | +30% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is Xiaomi Corporation (XIACF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 29, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $3.89 versus a price of $3.10, about +25% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of XIACF?
Our model-based fair value for Xiaomi Corporation is $3.89 (as of Sep 29, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $3.10.
What is the quality score of XIACF?
Xiaomi Corporation has a Quality Score of 47/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Xiaomi Corporation (XIACF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $3.89 (as of Sep 29, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $2.16, optimistic scenario $7.56. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Xiaomi Corporation stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $3.89, about +25% upside versus a price of $3.10 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $2.16, optimistic scenario $7.56. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Xiaomi Corporation (XIACF)?
Xiaomi Corporation reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 445B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 29, 2026).
What growth is priced into Xiaomi Corporation (XIACF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Xiaomi Corporation would have to grow free cash flow by +8.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +12.6 % per year. As of Sep 29, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of XIACF use?
Our models discount Xiaomi Corporation at 8.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.68, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Xiaomi Corporation that is +8.3 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Xiaomi Corporation (XIACF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Xiaomi Corporation grew +12.6 % a year. The price currently implies +8.3 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Xiaomi Corporation (XIACF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Xiaomi Corporation (+8.3 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Xiaomi Corporation (XIACF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.85 %: that much free cash flow Xiaomi Corporation produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Xiaomi Corporation (XIACF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Xiaomi Corporation it is $3.89 per share (as of Sep 29, 2026), against a price of $3.10. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Xiaomi Corporation stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 29, 2026, XIACF trades below its calculated fair value: price $3.10, fair value $3.89, a gap of about +25% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of XIACF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($3.10); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($3.89). For Xiaomi Corporation the two are $0.7900 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Xiaomi Corporation worth?
The market values Xiaomi Corporation at about $82.8B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 29, 2026). Per share that is $3.10; our models calculate a fair value of $3.89 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about XIACF?
Our models span a range for Xiaomi Corporation: cautious scenario $2.16, base $3.89, optimistic $7.56 per share (as of Sep 29, 2026, price $3.10). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How far is XIACF from its 52-week high?
Xiaomi Corporation trades at $3.10, about 57% below its 52-week high of $7.14 and 11% above the low of $2.80 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $3.89 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Xiaomi Corporation?
From the same area (Technology) we also value Samsung Electronics Co, Sony Group, LG Electronics Inc, Huaqin Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Xiaomi Corporation stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 29, 2026: price $3.10, calculated fair value $3.89 (+25%), Quality Score 47/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of XIACF calculated?
We run Xiaomi Corporation through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $3.89, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Xiaomi Corporation currently trades 20 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Xiaomi Corporation (XIACF)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $3.10. Our model-based fair value is $3.89, about +25% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Xiaomi Corporation right now?
The model range is unusually wide ($2.16 to $7.56). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid quality (47/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Key figures of Xiaomi Corporation
How large is the market capitalisation of Xiaomi Corporation (XIACF)?
The market capitalisation of Xiaomi Corporation is $82.8B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/E ratio of Xiaomi Corporation (XIACF)?
The price-to-earnings ratio of Xiaomi Corporation is 12.9 (as of Jun 25, 2026). Price to earnings: how many years of current profit you pay for the stock. A P/E of 10 means ten years of profit.
What is the P/S ratio of Xiaomi Corporation (XIACF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Xiaomi Corporation is 1.18 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Xiaomi Corporation (XIACF)?
Earnings per share at Xiaomi Corporation are $0.2300 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 12.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Xiaomi Corporation (XIACF)?
The net margin of Xiaomi Corporation is 9.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Xiaomi Corporation (XIACF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Xiaomi Corporation is 14.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Xiaomi Corporation (XIACF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Xiaomi Corporation is 5.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Xiaomi Corporation (XIACF)?
The operating margin of Xiaomi Corporation is 4.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Xiaomi Corporation (XIACF)?
Revenue at Xiaomi Corporation is growing −10.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +16.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Xiaomi Corporation (XIACF)?
Earnings per share at Xiaomi Corporation are growing −58.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Xiaomi Corporation (XIACF) carry?
The net debt of Xiaomi Corporation is 10.3B CNY (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 0.5 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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