X Financial, (XYF) Fair Value & Analysis
Financial Services · US · Market cap $186M
X Financial,
XYF · US
Fair value as of: Jul 27, 2026
From 11 valuation models · updated 15 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 27, 2026, revised from $8.82 to $8.62 (−2.3%) since Jun 26, 2026. Share price +9.5% over the past month.
A solid business, screening 63% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price is below even our cautious bear case ($6.09). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
- The model range is unusually wide ($6.09 to $18.32). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- Solid quality (66/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
- For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $1.31 – $18.53 · fair‑value band $6.09 – $18.32 · the $5.30 price screens below the $8.62 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 27, 2026.
Analysis
X Financial, (XYF) currently trades at $5.30, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $8.62, implying the stock looks roughly 62.7% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 66/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, X Financial, generated revenue of $7.6B at a net margin of 19.2%. Revenue declined 14.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 19.8%. Net debt stands at $181M. Fundamentals as of Jul 27, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $6.09 (bear case) to $18.32 (bull case); at $5.30, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 72% below its 52-week high and 70% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at -41% fair-value upside, at 63%, XYF screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 11 models by family
Widest divergence: Earnings-Based ($2,241) versus Asset-Based ($235.99). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 27, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 62 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 33
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
X Financial, together with its subsidiaries, operates as an online personal finance company in the People's Republic of China. The company offers Xiaoying credit loans, which are online personal credit loan products comprising Xiaoying card loans and other unsecured loan products; and Xiaoying housing loans, a secured home equity loan product.
Full company description
X Financial, together with its subsidiaries, operates as an online personal finance company in the People's Republic of China. The company offers Xiaoying credit loans, which are online personal credit loan products comprising Xiaoying card loans and other unsecured loan products; and Xiaoying housing loans, a secured home equity loan product. It also provides guarantee, consulting, e-commerce, and microcredit services. In addition, the company engages in the technology development and service, as well as the sale of products. X Financial was founded in 2014 and is headquartered in Shenzhen, the People's Republic of China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
X Financial, reported revenue of $7.4B in FY2025 versus $1.5B in FY2021, a compound +48.9%/yr. Reported net income was $1.4B in FY2025, compounding +14.6%/yr from FY2021.
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Peer Group
Credit Services · 331 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Credit Services median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Credit Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 27, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Visa Inc V | $348.97 | $204.19 | -41% |
| Mastercard Incorporated MA | $537.70 | $221.87 | -59% |
| American Express Company AXP | $358.44 | $206.40 | -42% |
| Bajaj Finance Limited BAJFINANCE | ₹1,056 | ₹397.61 | -62% |
| Shriram Finance Limited SHRIRAMFIN | ₹1,024 | ₹553.83 | -46% |
| Cholamandalam Investment and Finance Company CHOLAFIN | ₹1,808 | ₹796.52 | -56% |
| Tata Capital Limited TATACAP | ₹360.60 | ₹229.85 | -36% |
| Power Finance Corporation PFC | ₹405.10 | ₹810.20 | +100% |
| Muthoot Finance Limited MUTHOOTFIN | ₹3,129 | ₹3,463 | +11% |
| Indian Railway Finance Corporation IRFC | ₹88.41 | ₹69.72 | -21% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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