Yanaprima Hastapersada Tbk (YPAS) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Yanaprima Hastapersada Tbk IDR 140, price IDR 1,215, upside -88.5%, quality 70 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 171.00 IDR – 1,735 IDR · fair‑value band 121.73 IDR – 175.00 IDR · the 1,215 IDR price screens above the 140.00 IDR fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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PT Yanaprima Hastapersada Tbk manufactures and sells polypropylene (PP) polymer laminated woven bags in Indonesia, Asia, and South America. It operates in four segments: Plastic Bags; Cement Bags; Roll Sheet and Sandwich Sheet; and Others.
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PT Yanaprima Hastapersada Tbk manufactures and sells polypropylene (PP) polymer laminated woven bags in Indonesia, Asia, and South America. It operates in four segments: Plastic Bags; Cement Bags; Roll Sheet and Sandwich Sheet; and Others. The company offers plastic bags, laminated bags, cement sacks, roll sheets, sandwich sheets, and PP woven block bottom bags. Its products are used for packaging cement, sugar, fertilizer, rice, and other commodities. It exports its products. The company was founded in 1995 and is headquartered in Jakarta Selatan, Indonesia. PT Yanaprima Hastapersada Tbk is a subsidiary of PT. Hastagraha Bumipersada.
Stock analysis
Yanaprima Hastapersada Tbk (YPAS) currently trades at 1,215 IDR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 140.00 IDR, implying the stock looks roughly 768.1% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of 309.99 IDR per share, and 0 of the 22 models we run sit above the 1,215 IDR price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at 17.73 IDR, and 22 of the 22 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: 121.73 IDR (bear) to 175.00 IDR (bull), the price of 1,215 IDR sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 70/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Yanaprima Hastapersada Tbk reported revenue of 362B IDR in FY2025 versus 339B IDR in FY2021, a compound +1.7%/yr. Reported net income was 5.5B IDR in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap 1.0T IDR (≈ $56.4M) · P/E ratio 33.1 · P/S ratio 0.50 · EPS (TTM) 36.75 IDR · Net margin 1.5% · Return on equity 18.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.0% · Operating margin 18.7%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 43 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 30% below its 52-week high and 243% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −21% fair-value upside, at −88%, YPAS screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely (17.73 IDR to 466.52 IDR). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bear 121.73 IDRFair Value 140.00 IDRBull 175.00 IDR
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (26.98 IDR per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.70/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+5.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−1.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +2.7% a year
Revenue growth 19 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.9%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in IDR ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in IDR: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
−1.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−1.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.6% → 2%
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 1.9%/yr over ~10Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+27.4%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Indonesia: IMF forecast 2.6% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +24.1% a year for the price.
Compare Yanaprima Hastapersada Tbk with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Packaging & Containers · 272 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/13 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score70 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−89% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)19% · Top 25%
Return on assets6% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)6% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)19% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth29% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.39× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Packaging & Containers median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)33.1× · Pricier than median
P/B7.76× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM)2.61× · Priciest 25%
P/FCF0.0× · Cheapest 25%
EV/EBITDA23.7× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 21
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 3
PAST (return on equity)74· sector 24
HEALTH (low debt)81· sector 92
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 47
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Yanaprima Hastapersada Tbk (YPAS) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 140.00 IDR versus a price of 1,215 IDR, about −88% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of YPAS?
Our model-based fair value for Yanaprima Hastapersada Tbk is 140.00 IDR (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 1,215 IDR.
What is the quality score of YPAS?
Yanaprima Hastapersada Tbk has a Quality Score of 70/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Yanaprima Hastapersada Tbk (YPAS)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 140.00 IDR (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 22 valuation models. Cautious scenario 121.73 IDR, optimistic scenario 175.00 IDR. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Yanaprima Hastapersada Tbk stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 140.00 IDR, about −88% upside versus a price of 1,215 IDR (overvalued). Cautious scenario 121.73 IDR, optimistic scenario 175.00 IDR. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Yanaprima Hastapersada Tbk (YPAS)?
Yanaprima Hastapersada Tbk reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 387B IDR (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Yanaprima Hastapersada Tbk (YPAS)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Yanaprima Hastapersada Tbk would have to grow free cash flow by +27.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 15.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +3.6 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of YPAS use?
Our models discount Yanaprima Hastapersada Tbk at 15.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), country premium for Indonesia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Yanaprima Hastapersada Tbk that is +27.4 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (15.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Yanaprima Hastapersada Tbk (YPAS) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Yanaprima Hastapersada Tbk grew +3.6 % a year. The price currently implies +27.4 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Yanaprima Hastapersada Tbk (YPAS) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Yanaprima Hastapersada Tbk (+27.4 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Yanaprima Hastapersada Tbk (YPAS)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 4.19 %: that much free cash flow Yanaprima Hastapersada Tbk produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (15.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Yanaprima Hastapersada Tbk (YPAS)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Yanaprima Hastapersada Tbk it is 140.00 IDR per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of 1,215 IDR. It is the blended result of 22 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Yanaprima Hastapersada Tbk stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, YPAS trades above its calculated fair value: price 1,215 IDR, fair value 140.00 IDR, a gap of about −88% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of YPAS?
No. The price is what the market pays today (1,215 IDR); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (140.00 IDR). For Yanaprima Hastapersada Tbk the two are 1,075 IDR per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Yanaprima Hastapersada Tbk worth?
The market values Yanaprima Hastapersada Tbk at about 1.0T IDR (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is 1,215 IDR; our models calculate a fair value of 140.00 IDR per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about YPAS?
Our models span a range for Yanaprima Hastapersada Tbk: cautious scenario 121.73 IDR, base 140.00 IDR, optimistic 175.00 IDR per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price 1,215 IDR). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of YPAS?
Yanaprima Hastapersada Tbk trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 33.1 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 140.00 IDR is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 7.8, P/S 2.6, EV/EBITDA 23.7.
How solid is the balance sheet of Yanaprima Hastapersada Tbk (YPAS)?
Balance-sheet figures for Yanaprima Hastapersada Tbk (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 18.5%, debt of 0.39 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 70/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is YPAS from its 52-week high?
Yanaprima Hastapersada Tbk trades at 1,215 IDR, about 30% below its 52-week high of 1,735 IDR and 243% above the low of 354.00 IDR (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 140.00 IDR is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Yanaprima Hastapersada Tbk?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Smurfit Westrock Plc,, Packaging Corporation, International Paper Company, Ball Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Yanaprima Hastapersada Tbk stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price 1,215 IDR, calculated fair value 140.00 IDR (−88%), Quality Score 70/100, from 22 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of YPAS calculated?
We run Yanaprima Hastapersada Tbk through 22 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 140.00 IDR, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Yanaprima Hastapersada Tbk itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Yanaprima Hastapersada Tbk (YPAS)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was 1,215 IDR. Our model-based fair value is 140.00 IDR, about −88% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Yanaprima Hastapersada Tbk right now?
A high-quality business (quality 70/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety. The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (175.00 IDR). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Key figures of Yanaprima Hastapersada Tbk
How large is the market capitalisation of Yanaprima Hastapersada Tbk (YPAS)?
The market capitalisation of Yanaprima Hastapersada Tbk is 1.0T IDR (≈ $56.4M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Yanaprima Hastapersada Tbk (YPAS)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Yanaprima Hastapersada Tbk is 0.50 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Yanaprima Hastapersada Tbk (YPAS)?
Earnings per share at Yanaprima Hastapersada Tbk are 36.75 IDR (price ÷ EPS = P/E 33.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Yanaprima Hastapersada Tbk (YPAS)?
The net margin of Yanaprima Hastapersada Tbk is 1.5% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Yanaprima Hastapersada Tbk (YPAS)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Yanaprima Hastapersada Tbk is 18.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Yanaprima Hastapersada Tbk (YPAS)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Yanaprima Hastapersada Tbk is 1.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Yanaprima Hastapersada Tbk (YPAS)?
The operating margin of Yanaprima Hastapersada Tbk is 18.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Yanaprima Hastapersada Tbk (YPAS)?
Revenue at Yanaprima Hastapersada Tbk is growing +29.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg −1.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Yanaprima Hastapersada Tbk (YPAS)?
Earnings per share at Yanaprima Hastapersada Tbk are growing +21.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Yanaprima Hastapersada Tbk (YPAS) carry?
The net debt of Yanaprima Hastapersada Tbk is 50.6B IDR (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 1.5 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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