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PT Yanaprima Hastapersada Tbk (YPAS) Fair Value & Analysis

Consumer Cyclical · ID · Market cap 411B IDR

PY PT Yanaprima Hastapersada Tbk YPAS · JK
Price635.00 IDR
Fair Value140.00 IDR
Upside-78.0%
Quality67/100
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Healthy Growth
Thin margins · 2.5% net margin
Low debt · generates free cash flow
Trails peers (3/13)
Narrow moat 30/100
Evidence: High Range 105.00 IDR – 175.00 IDR Share as image

Fair value as of: Jul 11, 2026

From 24 valuation models · updated 30 days ago

Share price +1.6% over the past month.

A solid business, but screening 78% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

  • The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (175.00 IDR). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
  • Solid but not exceptional quality (67/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

1,735 IDR 171.00 IDR Fair Value 140.00 IDR Feb 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 11, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range 171.00 IDR – 1,735 IDR · fair‑value band 105.00 IDR – 175.00 IDR · the 635.00 IDR price screens above the 140.00 IDR fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 11, 2026.

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Analysis

PT Yanaprima Hastapersada Tbk (YPAS) currently trades at 635.00 IDR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 140.00 IDR, implying the stock looks roughly 78.0% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 67/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).

Over the trailing twelve months, PT Yanaprima Hastapersada Tbk generated revenue of 362B IDR at a net margin of 2.5%. Revenue declined 0.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 7.3%. Net debt stands at 50.6B IDR. Fundamentals as of Jul 11, 2026

Our scenario range runs from 105.00 IDR (bear case) to 175.00 IDR (bull case); at 635.00 IDR, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 68% below its 52-week high and 144% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -22% fair-value upside, at -78%, YPAS screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF 517.85 IDR 750.21 IDR 1,086 IDR 80
Residual Income 149.74 IDR 151.84 IDR 143.66 IDR 76
Rev-Margin DCF 196.57 IDR 266.62 IDR 345.46 IDR 74
All 24 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF 496.55 IDR 739.26 IDR 1,104 IDR 38
Owner Earnings 146.32 IDR 236.65 IDR 372.31 IDR 31
5Y Revenue Exit 196.57 IDR 256.07 IDR 324.30 IDR 39
5Y EBITDA Exit 274.99 IDR 392.90 IDR 521.38 IDR 41
5Y P/E Exit 195.43 IDR 254.09 IDR 309.94 IDR 38
10Y Revenue Exit 298.30 IDR 370.29 IDR 447.51 IDR 36
10Y EBITDA Exit 351.00 IDR 463.98 IDR 591.23 IDR 37
10Y P/E Exit 300.52 IDR 368.93 IDR 437.04 IDR 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd 56.00 IDR 115.15 IDR 145.30 IDR 54
EPV 37.49 IDR 54.93 IDR 70.43 IDR 59
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM 192.38 IDR 289.86 IDR 396.83 IDR 70
DDM Multi-Stage 192.38 IDR 278.02 IDR 380.82 IDR 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple 105.00 IDR 140.00 IDR 175.00 IDR 63
P/S Multiple 105.00 IDR 140.00 IDR 175.00 IDR 58
P/B Multiple 105.00 IDR 140.00 IDR 175.00 IDR 55
EV/EBIT 53.96 IDR 92.38 IDR 130.80 IDR 53
EV/EBITDA 185.28 IDR 267.47 IDR 349.67 IDR 54
EV/Revenue 38.59 IDR 81.40 IDR 124.21 IDR 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) 97.27 IDR 130.34 IDR 194.54 IDR 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF 517.85 IDR 750.21 IDR 1,086 IDR 80
Rev-Margin DCF 196.57 IDR 266.62 IDR 345.46 IDR 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income 149.74 IDR 151.84 IDR 143.66 IDR 76
ROIC Compounder 37.49 IDR 54.93 IDR 70.43 IDR 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E 77.59 IDR 110.85 IDR 144.10 IDR 68

Widest divergence: DCF Models (368.93 IDR) versus Earnings-Based (54.93 IDR). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

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Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) 362B IDR
Revenue growth (YoY) -0.5%
Net margin 2.5%
Return on equity 7.3%
Free cash flow 34.0B IDR FY2025
P/E ratio 43.8
More key figures
Operating margin -0.6%
EPS (TTM) 13.46 IDR
EPS growth (YoY) -3.3%
Net debt 50.6B IDR FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 11, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 67/100

Of which business quality 65 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 55

Profitability 39
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 77
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 68
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 52
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 96
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 50
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 56
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 60
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 82
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

PT Yanaprima Hastapersada Tbk manufactures and sells polypropylene (PP) polymer laminated woven bags in Indonesia, Asia, and South America. It operates in four segments: Plastic Bags; Cement Bags; Roll Sheet and Sandwich Sheet; and Others.

Full company description

PT Yanaprima Hastapersada Tbk manufactures and sells polypropylene (PP) polymer laminated woven bags in Indonesia, Asia, and South America. It operates in four segments: Plastic Bags; Cement Bags; Roll Sheet and Sandwich Sheet; and Others. The company offers plastic bags, laminated bags, cement sacks, roll sheets, sandwich sheets, and PP woven block bottom bags. Its products are used for packaging cement, sugar, fertilizer, rice, and other commodities. It exports its products. The company was founded in 1995 and is headquartered in Jakarta Selatan, Indonesia. PT Yanaprima Hastapersada Tbk is a subsidiary of PT. Hastagraha Bumipersada.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

PT Yanaprima Hastapersada Tbk reported revenue of 362B IDR in FY2025 versus 339B IDR in FY2021, a compound +1.7%/yr. Reported net income was 5.5B IDR in FY2025.

Growth Quality 65/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
362B IDR
Latest YoY
+5.4%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−1.3%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+3.6%
Avg. growth/yr (19Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+3.9%
Revenue +1.7%/yr
FY21 339B IDR
FY22 377B IDR
FY23 346B IDR
FY24 344B IDR
FY25 362B IDR
Net income
FY21 −9.5B IDR
FY22 −1.4B IDR
FY23 8.2B IDR
FY24 −4.3B IDR
FY25 5.5B IDR

YPAS screens 78% overvalued. Compare with Stora Enso Oyj →

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PT Yanaprima Hastapersada Tbk · Fair Value
140.00 IDR −78%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "PT Yanaprima Hastapersada Tbk Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/YPAS

Peer Group

Packaging & Containers · 272 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 67 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside −78% · Bottom 25%
Return on equity (TTM) 7% · Above median
Return on assets 2% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) 3% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) -1% · Bottom 25%
Revenue growth -1% · Below median
Debt / equity 0.39× · Higher than 75% of peers

Valuation Multiples vs Packaging & Containers median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 45.8× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/B 3.16× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 1.14× · Pricier than median
P/FCF 0.0× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
EV/EBITDA 17.8× · Pricier than 75% of peers

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0 · sector 9
FUTURE 0 · sector 0
PAST 29 · sector 21
HEALTH 81 · sector 93
DIVIDEND 0 · sector 42

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Packaging & Containers stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 11, 2026).

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ShenZhen YUTO Packaging Technology Co 002831 ¥29.10 ¥20.88 -28%
SCG Packaging Public Company SCGP 29.00 THB 16.12 THB -44%
AblePrint Technology Co 7734 2,850 TWD 661.69 TWD -77%
PT Fajar Surya Wisesa Tbk, FASW 5,312 IDR 1,194 IDR -78%
Taiwan Hon Chuan Enterprise Co 9939 132.50 TWD 127.06 TWD -4%
Time Technoplast Limited TIMETECHNO ₹206.82 ₹161.42 -22%
EPL Limited 500135 ₹222.25 ₹111.65 -50%
Ton Yi Industrial Corp 9907 15.15 TWD 23.17 TWD +53%
Dongwon Systems Corporation 014820 19,330 KRW 31,473 KRW +63%

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Frequently asked questions

Is PT Yanaprima Hastapersada Tbk (YPAS) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jul 11, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 140.00 IDR versus a price of 635.00 IDR, about −78% (overvalued).
What is the fair value of YPAS?
Our model-based fair value for PT Yanaprima Hastapersada Tbk is 140.00 IDR (as of Jul 11, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is 635.00 IDR.
What is the quality score of YPAS?
PT Yanaprima Hastapersada Tbk has a Quality Score of 67/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of PT Yanaprima Hastapersada Tbk (YPAS)?
PT Yanaprima Hastapersada Tbk reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 362B IDR (latest available figure, as of Jul 11, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of YPAS?
The net profit margin of PT Yanaprima Hastapersada Tbk is about 2.5%, meaning it keeps roughly 2.5% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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