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Zenas BioPharma, Inc. (ZBIO) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Zenas BioPharma, Inc. $3.22, price $28.30, upside -88.6%, quality 31 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
  3. Add to watchlist

Healthcare · US · ISIN US98937L1052

ZB Zenas BioPharma, Inc. logo Thin data Sep 28, 2026

Zenas BioPharma, Inc.

ZBIO · US

Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.

!Fair value $3.22 · Strongly overvalued (−88.6%)
!Quality 31/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue YoY +100.0 %/yr)
!Low debt · negative free cash flow
!Trails peers (0/6)
!Narrow moat 5/100
✓Insider activity 78/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$43.17 $6.43 Fair Value $3.22 Sep 2024 Oct 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 28, 2026.

How to read this chart

25‑month range $6.43 – $43.17 · fair‑value band $2.12 – $4.02 · the $28.30 price screens above the $3.22 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 28, 2026.

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Company profile

Zenas BioPharma, Inc., a clinical-stage biopharma company, engages in the development and commercialization of transformative immunology-based therapies.

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Zenas BioPharma, Inc., a clinical-stage biopharma company, engages in the development and commercialization of transformative immunology-based therapies. Its lead product candidate is obexelimab, a bifunctional monoclonal antibody designed to bind CD19 and Fc"RIIb for the treatment of various I&I diseases and various indications, including immunoglobulin G4-related disease, multiple sclerosis, and systemic lupus erythematosus. The company develops ZB002, an anti-TNFa monoclonal antibody; ZB004, a CTLA-4-Ig fusion protein designed to have an extended half-life versus; and ZB001, an anti-IGF-1R monoclonal antibody. The company was formerly known as Zenas BioPharma (Cayman) Limited and changed its name to Zenas BioPharma, Inc. in August 2023. The company was incorporated in 2019 and is headquartered in Waltham, Massachusetts.

Stock analysis

Zenas BioPharma, Inc. Common Stock (ZBIO) currently trades at $28.30, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $3.22, 88.6% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 92/100, which puts the evidence level at low.

Scenario range: $2.12 (bear) to $4.02 (bull), the price of $28.30 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 31/100 (below-average quality), in the Healthcare sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

Zenas BioPharma, Inc. Common Stock reported revenue of $10.0M in FY2025 versus $0 in FY2022. Reported net income was −$378M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $2.1B · EPS (TTM) $−9.63 · Return on equity −199% · Return on assets (EBIT) −64.0% · Operating margin −7,766% · Free cash flow −$172M · Net cash $30.7M.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 22 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 34% below its 52-week high and 86% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −89%, ZBIO screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $2.12 Fair Value $3.22 Bull $4.02
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
NCAV (Graham) $1.86 $2.49 $3.72 54
All 1 models by family
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $1.86 $2.49 $3.72 54

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 31/100

Of which business quality 33 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 61

Profitability 1
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 51
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 0
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 97
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 50
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 50
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 72
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 56
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 0
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 33/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

ZBIO screens overvalued: fair value 89% below the price. Compare with Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Biotechnology · 625 stocks

Beats the industry median on 0/5 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 33 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −88.5% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets −34.4% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.08× · Above median

Valuation Multiplesvs Biotechnology median · lower = cheaper

P/B 8.76× · Priciest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 0
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 0
HEALTH (low debt)96 · sector 97
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 22

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Biotechnology stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated VRTX $527.67 $580.44 +10%
Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc REGN $752.25 $1,275 +69%
argenx SE ARGX $959.49 $918.60 −4%
CSL Limited CSL A$175.35 A$192.89 +10%
Samsung Biologics Co 207940 1,354,000 KRW 1,489,400 KRW +10%
BeOne Medicines AG ONC $360.85 $280.94 −22%
Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc ALNY $255.96 $217.88 −15%
Royalty Pharma plc RPRX $58.21 $19.01 −67%
Celltrion, Inc 068270 177,400 KRW 74,519 KRW −58%
WuXi Biologics (Cayman) Inc 2269 HK$53.00 HK$58.30 +10%

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Zenas BioPharma, Inc. Common Stock · Fair Value
$3.22 −89%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Zenas BioPharma, Inc. Common Stock Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ZBIO

Frequently asked questions

Is Zenas BioPharma, Inc. (ZBIO) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 28, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $3.22 versus a price of $28.30, about −89% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of ZBIO?
Our model-based fair value for Zenas BioPharma, Inc. Common Stock is $3.22 (as of Sep 28, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $28.30.
What is the quality score of ZBIO?
Zenas BioPharma, Inc. Common Stock has a Quality Score of 31/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Zenas BioPharma, Inc. (ZBIO)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $3.22 (as of Sep 28, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario $2.12, optimistic scenario $4.02. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Zenas BioPharma, Inc. Common Stock stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $3.22, about −89% upside versus a price of $28.30 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $2.12, optimistic scenario $4.02. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the intrinsic value of Zenas BioPharma, Inc. (ZBIO)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Zenas BioPharma, Inc. Common Stock it is $3.22 per share (as of Sep 28, 2026), against a price of $28.30. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Zenas BioPharma, Inc. Common Stock stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 28, 2026, ZBIO trades above its calculated fair value: price $28.30, fair value $3.22, a gap of about −89% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ZBIO?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($28.30); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($3.22). For Zenas BioPharma, Inc. Common Stock the two are $25.08 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Zenas BioPharma, Inc. Common Stock worth?
The market values Zenas BioPharma, Inc. Common Stock at about $2.1B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 28, 2026). Per share that is $28.30; our models calculate a fair value of $3.22 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ZBIO?
Our models span a range for Zenas BioPharma, Inc. Common Stock: cautious scenario $2.12, base $3.22, optimistic $4.02 per share (as of Sep 28, 2026, price $28.30). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Zenas BioPharma, Inc. (ZBIO)?
Balance-sheet figures for Zenas BioPharma, Inc. Common Stock (as of Sep 28, 2026): return on equity −199.0%, debt of 0.08 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 31/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ZBIO from its 52-week high?
Zenas BioPharma, Inc. Common Stock trades at $28.30, about 34% below its 52-week high of $43.17 and 86% above the low of $15.20 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $3.22 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Zenas BioPharma, Inc. Common Stock?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc, argenx SE, CSL Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Zenas BioPharma, Inc. Common Stock stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 28, 2026: price $28.30, calculated fair value $3.22 (−89%), Quality Score 31/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ZBIO calculated?
We run Zenas BioPharma, Inc. Common Stock through 1 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $3.22, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Zenas BioPharma, Inc. Common Stock itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Zenas BioPharma, Inc. (ZBIO)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $28.30. Our model-based fair value is $3.22, about −89% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Zenas BioPharma, Inc. Common Stock right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($4.02). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (31/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range ($2.12 to $4.02) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Key figures of Zenas BioPharma, Inc. Common Stock

How large is the market capitalisation of Zenas BioPharma, Inc. (ZBIO)?
The market capitalisation of Zenas BioPharma, Inc. Common Stock is $2.1B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What are the earnings per share of Zenas BioPharma, Inc. (ZBIO)?
Earnings per share at Zenas BioPharma, Inc. Common Stock are $−9.63. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the return on equity of Zenas BioPharma, Inc. (ZBIO)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Zenas BioPharma, Inc. Common Stock is −199% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Zenas BioPharma, Inc. (ZBIO)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Zenas BioPharma, Inc. Common Stock is −64.0% (avg 4y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Zenas BioPharma, Inc. (ZBIO)?
The operating margin of Zenas BioPharma, Inc. Common Stock is −7,766% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How much free cash flow does Zenas BioPharma, Inc. (ZBIO) generate?
The free cash flow of Zenas BioPharma, Inc. Common Stock is −$172M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Zenas BioPharma, Inc. (ZBIO) hold?
Zenas BioPharma, Inc. Common Stock holds more cash than debt, $30.7M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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