Saudi Arabian Mining Company (1211) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 5, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Saudi Arabian Mining Company stock SAR 63.69, price SAR 59.05, upside +7.9%, quality 60 out of 100. Rating: fairly valued. Calculated from audited financials with 24 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 22.33 SAR – 79.50 SAR · fair‑value band 29.58 SAR – 86.49 SAR · the 59.05 SAR price screens below the 63.69 SAR fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 5, 2026.
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Saudi Arabian Mining Company (Maaden) operates as a mining and metals company in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Singapore, Korea, the United States, Europe, Australia, Brazil, Africa, Gulf Cooperation Council countries, and internationally.
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The company operates through Phosphate Strategic Business Unit, Aluminium Strategic Business Unit, Base Metals and New Minerals Strategic Business Unit, and All other segments.
It primarily mines for gold, phosphate rock, bauxite, kaolin, and magnesite, as well as copper, zinc, carbon, and silver concentrates.
The company primarily holds interests in the e Mansourah-Massarah, Ar-Rjum, Mahd Ad-Dahab, Bulghah, Al-Amar, Sukhaybarat, As Suq, Ad Duwayhi, Al-Jalamid, Al-Khabra, Az Zabirah, Al-Ghazallah, and Al-Ba'itha mines.
It also produces and sells phosphate fertilizers, ammonia, and industrial minerals, as well as alumina, aluminum, and flat rolled products directly to customers and through marketing agents.
In addition, the company offers ingots, slabs, and billets; caustic soda and Ethylene Dichloride (EDC); and potassium fertilizers.
Further, it is involved in procurement, marketing, project management and execution, exploration, funding and treasury management and other support activities; development and operation of smelters; and providing cooperative insurance, reinsurance, and related activities.
Saudi Arabian Mining Company (Maaden) was founded in 1997 and is based in Riyadh, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.
Stock analysis
Saudi Arabian Mining Company (1211) currently trades at 59.05 SAR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 63.69 SAR, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 7.3%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of 52.02 SAR per share, and 2 of the 24 models we run sit above the 59.05 SAR price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at 10.60 SAR, and 22 of the 24 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: 29.58 SAR (bear) to 86.49 SAR (bull), the price of 59.05 SAR sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 60/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Saudi Arabian Mining Company reported revenue of 38.6B SAR in FY2025 versus 26.8B SAR in FY2021, a compound +9.6%/yr. Reported net income was 7.3B SAR in FY2025, compounding +8.9%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 227B SAR (≈ $60.5B) Large · P/E ratio 29.8 · P/S ratio 5.63 · EPS (TTM) 1.98 SAR · Net margin 19.0% · Return on equity 12.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 7.3% · Operating margin 21.6%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 62 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 26% below its 52-week high and 13% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −20% fair-value upside, at 8%, 1211 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear29.58 SARFair Value 63.69 SARBull86.49 SAR
Price 59.05 SAR · Upside +7.9%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (1.68 SAR per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.100/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+18.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−1.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+15.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +13.4% a year
Revenue growth 18 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+32.5%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
−30.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−30.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−14.8% vs 27.2%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.4% → 27%
2025 sits 146% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+21.9%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+7.0%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Saudi Arabia: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.7% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +19.4% a year for the price and +4.8% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (33 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
AI conclusion: Moderate scale and cash conversion provide a base, yet limited differentiation in a commoditized sector with cyclical exposure and elevated debt constrain the business.
Main risk: Lower-cost production by Morocco's OCP Group might force Maaden to accept reduced prices or margins on phosphate fertilizers.
Bull case: Maaden could leverage its Aramco joint venture and scale in integrated operations to develop lower-cost or differentiated copper and phosphate outputs that appeal to energy-transition buyers.
Bear case: If lower-cost rivals like OCP and Chinese processors dominate key segments, Maaden's phosphate and emerging copper revenues could face sustained pressure, limiting overall growth despite aluminum gains.
Maaden is pushing ahead with its copper and mineral exploration via the recently approved joint venture with Aramco in the vast Arabian Shield area. Aluminum revenue has grown sharply on higher prices while phosphate volumes face headwinds. Will the new projects deliver diversified growth faster than the core segments can recover?
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Other Industrial Metals & Mining · 374 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/13 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score60 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+7.9% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)12.6% · Top 25%
Return on assets6.1% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)19.0% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)21.6% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)16.2% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.48× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Other Industrial Metals & Mining median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Saudi Arabian Mining Company Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/1211
Frequently asked questions
Is Saudi Arabian Mining Company (1211) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 5, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 63.69 SAR versus a price of 59.05 SAR, about +8% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of 1211?
Our model-based fair value for Saudi Arabian Mining Company is 63.69 SAR (as of Nov 5, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 59.05 SAR.
What is the quality score of 1211?
Saudi Arabian Mining Company has a Quality Score of 60/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Saudi Arabian Mining Company (1211)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 63.69 SAR (as of Nov 5, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario 29.58 SAR, optimistic scenario 86.49 SAR. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Saudi Arabian Mining Company stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 63.69 SAR, about +8% upside versus a price of 59.05 SAR (fairly valued). Cautious scenario 29.58 SAR, optimistic scenario 86.49 SAR. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Saudi Arabian Mining Company (1211)?
Saudi Arabian Mining Company reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 40.4B SAR (latest available figure, as of Nov 5, 2026).
What growth is priced into Saudi Arabian Mining Company (1211)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Saudi Arabian Mining Company would have to grow free cash flow by +21.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +15.7 % per year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 1211 use?
Our models discount Saudi Arabian Mining Company at 8.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.48, country premium for Saudi Arabia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Saudi Arabian Mining Company that is +21.9 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Saudi Arabian Mining Company (1211) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Saudi Arabian Mining Company grew +15.7 % a year. The price currently implies +21.9 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Saudi Arabian Mining Company (1211) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Saudi Arabian Mining Company (+21.9 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Saudi Arabian Mining Company (1211)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 2.35 %: that much free cash flow Saudi Arabian Mining Company produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Saudi Arabian Mining Company (1211)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Saudi Arabian Mining Company it is 63.69 SAR per share (as of Nov 5, 2026), against a price of 59.05 SAR. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Saudi Arabian Mining Company stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 5, 2026, 1211 trades below its calculated fair value: price 59.05 SAR, fair value 63.69 SAR, a gap of about +8% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 1211?
No. The price is what the market pays today (59.05 SAR); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (63.69 SAR). For Saudi Arabian Mining Company the two are 4.64 SAR per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Saudi Arabian Mining Company worth?
The market values Saudi Arabian Mining Company at about 227B SAR (market capitalisation, as of Nov 5, 2026). Per share that is 59.05 SAR; our models calculate a fair value of 63.69 SAR per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 1211?
Our models span a range for Saudi Arabian Mining Company: cautious scenario 29.58 SAR, base 63.69 SAR, optimistic 86.49 SAR per share (as of Nov 5, 2026, price 59.05 SAR). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 1211?
Saudi Arabian Mining Company trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 29.8 (as of Nov 5, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 63.69 SAR is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 3.7, P/S 5.6, EV/EBITDA 16.8.
How solid is the balance sheet of Saudi Arabian Mining Company (1211)?
Balance-sheet figures for Saudi Arabian Mining Company (as of Nov 5, 2026): return on equity 12.6%, debt of 0.48 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 60/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 1211 from its 52-week high?
Saudi Arabian Mining Company trades at 59.05 SAR, about 26% below its 52-week high of 79.50 SAR and 13% above the low of 52.10 SAR (as of Nov 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 63.69 SAR is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Saudi Arabian Mining Company?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value BHP Group, CMOC Group, Hindustan Zinc Limited, Boliden AB, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Saudi Arabian Mining Company stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 5, 2026: price 59.05 SAR, calculated fair value 63.69 SAR (+8%), Quality Score 60/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 1211 calculated?
We run Saudi Arabian Mining Company through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 63.69 SAR, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. Saudi Arabian Mining Company currently trades 7% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Saudi Arabian Mining Company (1211)?
The closing price on Nov 5, 2026 was 59.05 SAR. Our model-based fair value is 63.69 SAR, about +8% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Saudi Arabian Mining Company right now?
The model range is unusually wide (29.58 SAR to 86.49 SAR). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
Where does the earnings growth of Saudi Arabian Mining Company (1211) come from?
Earnings per share at Saudi Arabian Mining Company grew +18.0 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +12.4 %, EBIT margin +3.9 %, tax rate −1.7 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +2.9 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Saudi Arabian Mining Company
How large is the market capitalisation of Saudi Arabian Mining Company (1211)?
The market capitalisation of Saudi Arabian Mining Company is 227B SAR (≈ $60.5B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Saudi Arabian Mining Company (1211)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Saudi Arabian Mining Company is 5.63 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Saudi Arabian Mining Company (1211)?
Earnings per share at Saudi Arabian Mining Company are 1.98 SAR (price ÷ EPS = P/E 29.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Saudi Arabian Mining Company (1211)?
The net margin of Saudi Arabian Mining Company is 19.0% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Saudi Arabian Mining Company (1211)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Saudi Arabian Mining Company is 12.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Saudi Arabian Mining Company (1211)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Saudi Arabian Mining Company is 7.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Saudi Arabian Mining Company (1211)?
The operating margin of Saudi Arabian Mining Company is 21.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Saudi Arabian Mining Company (1211)?
Revenue at Saudi Arabian Mining Company is growing +16.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg −1.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Saudi Arabian Mining Company (1211)?
Earnings per share at Saudi Arabian Mining Company are growing +10.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Saudi Arabian Mining Company (1211) carry?
The net debt of Saudi Arabian Mining Company is 23.0B SAR (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 4.3 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Nov 5, 2026