Alcon AG (ALC) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 30, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Alcon AG stock $40.13, price $71.45, that is 43.8% below the price, quality 65 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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HealthcareUS · Home Switzerland · ISIN CH0432492467
AABroad dataNov 2, 2026
Alcon AG
ALC · US
Very expensive,in a downtrend
Our calculation puts a fair price 44% below what the stock costs today.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 2, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $55.68 – $99.92 · fair‑value band $28.18 – $52.09 · the $71.45 price screens above the $40.13 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 2, 2026.
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Alcon Inc. researches, develops, manufactures, distributes, and sells eye care products worldwide. The company operates through two segments, Surgical and Vision Care.
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It offers equipment, instrumentation and diagnostics, intraocular lenses (IOLs), and other implantables; and consumables, including viscoelastics, surgical solutions, incisional instruments, surgical custom packs, and other products for surgical procedures.
The company's cataract products include Unity CS, LenSx laser system, Verion reference unit and Verion digital marker, ARGOS biometer, SMARTCATARACT health platform, NGENUITY 3D visualization system, LuxOR surgical ophthalmic microscope, and ORA system for intra-operative measurements; ADI cloud-based platform; and implantable products, including monofocal, Toric, and Presbyopia-Correcting IOLs, as well as delivery systems, such as AutonoMe and UltraSert.
In addition, it provides Custom Pak surgical procedure packs vitreoretinal products comprising constellation vision systems, procedure packs, lasers and hand-held microsurgical instruments, Grieshaber, MIVS instruments; scissors, forceps and micro-instruments, medical grade vitreous tamponades, and Hypervit probes; and refractive surgery products, including WaveLight and Contoura Vision used for LASIK refractive procedure.
Further, the company offers daily disposable, reusable, and color-enhancing contact lenses; ocular health products, such as dry eye, ocular allergies, glaucoma, and contact lens care, as well as ocular vitamins and redness relievers.
The company was formerly known as Alcon Universal S.A. and changed its name to Alcon Inc. in December 2001. Alcon Inc. was founded in 1945 and is headquartered in Geneva, Switzerland.
Stock analysis
Alcon AG (ALC) currently trades at $71.45, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $40.13, 43.8% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $48.35 per share, and 0 of the 26 models we run sit above the $71.45 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $5.23, and 26 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $28.18 (bear) to $52.09 (bull), the price of $71.45 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 65/100 (solid quality), in the Healthcare sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Alcon AG reported revenue of $10.4B in FY2025 versus $8.3B in FY2021, a compound +5.8%/yr. Reported net income was $980M in FY2025, compounding +27.1%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $34.9B Large · P/E ratio 54.1 · P/S ratio 3.22 · EPS (TTM) $1.32 · Dividend yield 0.5% · Net margin 5.9% · Return on equity 2.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat.
The share trades about 18% below its 52-week high and 15% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at −55% fair-value upside, at −44%, ALC screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$28.18Fair Value $40.13Bull$52.09
Price $71.45 · Downside -43.8%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.8107 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.78/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+4.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +4.8% a year
Revenue growth 10 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.8%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+21.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+21.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.5%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.21.0% vs 12.5%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−7% → 13%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+8.2%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+5.6%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +5.7% a year for the price and +3.1% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (98 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
AI conclusion: Extended manufacturing agreement secures longer planning horizon for recurring contact lens revenue, yet low returns on equity and assets indicate limited durable competitive advantages.
Main risk: Johnson & Johnson’s next-generation EDOF lenses such as TECNIS PureSee could take share from Alcon’s Vivity and PanOptix products and compress margins in the intraocular lens segment.
Bull case: Alcon could leverage its extended manufacturing agreement and ongoing surgical innovations in dry eye and premium lenses to defend share and expand recurring revenue despite competitive pressure.
Bear case: If rivals capture significant share in premium IOLs and VBP plus tariffs compress pricing, Alcon’s surgical growth could stall and overall margins could decline over several years.
Alcon extended its key manufacturing agreement for contact lenses through 2034. That gives the recurring revenue side of the vision care business a longer planning horizon even as surgical innovations and dry eye products advance. Our models see the shares as overvalued. Does the added supply stability offset the earnings pressure more than it adds to growth?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Medical Instruments & Supplies · 184 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score65 · Above median
Fair Value upside−43.8% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)2.9% · Below median
Return on assets3.1% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)5.9% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)14.6% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)8.7% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)0.5% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.21× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Medical Instruments & Supplies median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)54.1× · Priciest 25%
P/B1.58× · Cheaper than median
P/S (12 months)3.22× · Pricier than median
Price / free cash flow20.2× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA15.8× · Pricier than median
PEG1.16× · Cheaper than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 21
FUTURE (revenue growth)44· sector 40
PAST (return on equity)12· sector 31
HEALTH (low debt)90· sector 96
DIVIDEND (yield)10· sector 31
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Alcon AG Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ALC
Frequently asked questions
Is Alcon AG (ALC) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 2, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $40.13 versus a price of $71.45, about 44% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of ALC?
Our model-based fair value for Alcon AG is $40.13 (as of Nov 2, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $71.45.
What is the quality score of ALC?
Alcon AG has a Quality Score of 65/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Alcon AG (ALC)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $40.13 (as of Nov 2, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $28.18, optimistic scenario $52.09. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Alcon AG stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $40.13, about 44% lower versus a price of $71.45 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $28.18, optimistic scenario $52.09. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Alcon AG (ALC)?
Alcon AG reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $10.9B (latest available figure, as of Nov 2, 2026).
Does Alcon AG pay a dividend?
Alcon AG currently shows a dividend yield of 0.49% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 2, 2026).
What growth is priced into Alcon AG (ALC)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Alcon AG would have to grow free cash flow by +8.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +8.8 % per year. As of Nov 2, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of ALC use?
Our models discount Alcon AG at 8.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.73, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Alcon AG that is +8.2 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Alcon AG (ALC) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Alcon AG grew +8.8 % a year. The price currently implies +8.2 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Alcon AG (ALC) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +6.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Alcon AG (+8.2 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Alcon AG (ALC)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 4.95 %: that much free cash flow Alcon AG produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Alcon AG (ALC)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Alcon AG it is $40.13 per share (as of Nov 2, 2026), against a price of $71.45. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Alcon AG stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 2, 2026, ALC trades above its calculated fair value: price $71.45, fair value $40.13, a gap of about −44% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ALC?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($71.45); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($40.13). For Alcon AG the two are $31.32 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Alcon AG worth?
The market values Alcon AG at about $34.9B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 2, 2026). Per share that is $71.45; our models calculate a fair value of $40.13 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ALC?
Our models span a range for Alcon AG: cautious scenario $28.18, base $40.13, optimistic $52.09 per share (as of Nov 2, 2026, price $71.45). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of ALC?
Alcon AG trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 54.1 (as of Nov 2, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $40.13 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 5 fiscal years (2021 to 2025), reported earnings: 41.5. Other multiples: PEG 1.2, P/B 1.6, P/S 3.2, EV/EBITDA 15.8.
What is the PEG ratio of ALC?
The PEG ratio of Alcon AG is 1.16 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 2, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Alcon AG (ALC)?
Balance-sheet figures for Alcon AG (as of Nov 2, 2026): return on equity 2.9%, debt of 0.21 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 65/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ALC from its 52-week high?
Alcon AG trades at $71.45, about 18% below its 52-week high of $86.76 and 15% above the low of $62.02 (as of Oct 30, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $40.13 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Alcon AG?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value Intuitive Surgical, Inc, EssilorLuxottica Société anonyme, Becton, Dickinson and Company, Medline Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Alcon AG stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 2, 2026: price $71.45, calculated fair value $40.13 (−44%), Quality Score 65/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ALC calculated?
We run Alcon AG through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $40.13, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.2 % above its aggregate fair value. Alcon AG itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Alcon AG (ALC)?
The closing price on Oct 30, 2026 was $71.45. Our model-based fair value is $40.13, about 44% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Alcon AG right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($52.09). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (65/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range ($28.18 to $52.09) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Alcon AG
How large is the market capitalisation of Alcon AG (ALC)?
The market capitalisation of Alcon AG is $34.9B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Alcon AG (ALC)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Alcon AG is 3.22 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Alcon AG (ALC)?
Earnings per share at Alcon AG are $1.32 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 54.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Alcon AG (ALC)?
The dividend yield of Alcon AG is 0.5% (payout 26.7%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Alcon AG (ALC)?
The net margin of Alcon AG is 5.9% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Alcon AG (ALC)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Alcon AG is 2.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Alcon AG (ALC)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Alcon AG is 3.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Alcon AG (ALC)?
The operating margin of Alcon AG is 14.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Alcon AG (ALC)?
Revenue at Alcon AG is growing +8.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +6.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Alcon AG (ALC)?
Earnings per share at Alcon AG are growing −44.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Alcon AG (ALC) carry?
The net debt of Alcon AG is $3.7B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 2.2 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 2, 2026