Aris Mining Corporation (ARIS) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Aris Mining Corporation stock C$11.78, price C$22.02, that is 46.5% below the price, quality 48 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 23 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 7, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range C$2.70 – C$30.90 · fair‑value band C$6.95 – C$18.17 · the C$22.02 price screens above the C$11.78 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 7, 2026.
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Aris Mining Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the acquisition, exploration, development, and operation of gold properties in Canada, Colombia, and Guyana. It also explores for silver and copper deposits.
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Aris Mining Corporation was formerly known as GCM Mining Corp. and changed its name to Aris Mining Corporation in September 2022. The company was founded in 20222 and is based in Vancouver, Canada.
Stock analysis
Aris Mining Corporation (ARIS) currently trades at C$22.02, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is C$11.78, 47% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of C$13.97 per share, and 5 of the 23 models we run sit above the C$22.02 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at C$6.58, and 18 of the 23 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: C$6.95 (bear) to C$18.17 (bull), the price of C$22.02 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 48/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Aris Mining Corporation reported revenue of $944M in FY2025 versus $383M in FY2021, a compound +25.3%/yr. Reported net income was $79.7M in FY2025, compounding −19.1%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap C$4.6B (≈ $3.3B) · P/E ratio 10.9 · P/S ratio 0.92 · EPS (TTM) C$2.02 · Net margin 8.4% · Return on equity 18.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 10.7% (5-year average) · Operating margin 39.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 71 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 29% below its 52-week high and 62% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −10% fair-value upside, at −47%, ARIS screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
BearC$6.95Fair Value C$11.78BullC$18.17
Price C$22.02 · Downside -46.5%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (C$1.73 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.81/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+84.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+33.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+20.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +22.0% a year
Revenue growth 23 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+107.1%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+12.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+12.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−26.6% vs 26.9%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.41% → 40%
2025 sits 250% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 27.7%/yr over ~10Y (margin trend unclear) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+32.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+32.4%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in USD, USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +29.6% a year for the price and +29.3% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (89 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
AI conclusion: Multiple projects advancing in parallel toward production growth form the main strength, while thin evidence for a durable moat and commodity exposure represent the key weakness.
Main risk: Delays at any one site would hit the staged production growth from the expansion pipeline in Colombia and Guyana.
Aris Mining has lifted year-to-date gold output 16 percent through higher owner-mined tonnes and plant upgrades while commissioning the new tailings facility at Marmato. Multiple projects in Colombia and Guyana now move in parallel toward staged production growth. Our models still see the shares as overvalued. Will the expansion pipeline deliver enough to close that gap or will delays at any one site keep the valuation stretched?
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Aris Mining Corporation (ARIS) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 7, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of C$11.78 versus a price of C$22.02, about 47% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of ARIS?
Our model-based fair value for Aris Mining Corporation is C$11.78 (as of Nov 7, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: C$22.02.
What is the quality score of ARIS?
Aris Mining Corporation has a Quality Score of 48/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Aris Mining Corporation (ARIS)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of C$11.78 (as of Nov 7, 2026) from 23 valuation models. Cautious scenario C$6.95, optimistic scenario C$18.17. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Aris Mining Corporation stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at C$11.78, about 47% lower versus a price of C$22.02 (overvalued). Cautious scenario C$6.95, optimistic scenario C$18.17. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Aris Mining Corporation (ARIS)?
Aris Mining Corporation reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $1.3B (latest available figure, as of Nov 7, 2026).
What growth is priced into Aris Mining Corporation (ARIS)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Aris Mining Corporation would have to grow free cash flow by +32.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.9 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +20.3 % per year. As of Nov 7, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of ARIS use?
Our models discount Aris Mining Corporation at 11.9 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 2.11, country premium for Canada. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Aris Mining Corporation that is +32.7 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (11.9 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Aris Mining Corporation (ARIS) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Aris Mining Corporation grew +20.3 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +32.7 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Aris Mining Corporation (ARIS) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Aris Mining Corporation (+32.7 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Aris Mining Corporation (ARIS)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 2.12 %: that much free cash flow Aris Mining Corporation produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.9 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Aris Mining Corporation (ARIS)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Aris Mining Corporation it is C$11.78 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026), against a price of C$22.02. It is the blended result of 23 valuation models in 7 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Aris Mining Corporation stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 7, 2026, ARIS trades above its calculated fair value: price C$22.02, fair value C$11.78, a gap of about −47% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ARIS?
No. The price is what the market pays today (C$22.02); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (C$11.78). For Aris Mining Corporation the two are C$10.24 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Aris Mining Corporation worth?
The market values Aris Mining Corporation at about C$4.6B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 7, 2026). Per share that is C$22.02; our models calculate a fair value of C$11.78 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ARIS?
Our models span a range for Aris Mining Corporation: cautious scenario C$6.95, base C$11.78, optimistic C$18.17 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026, price C$22.02). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of ARIS?
Aris Mining Corporation trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 10.9 (as of Nov 7, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of C$11.78 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 5 fiscal years (2017 to 2025), reported earnings: 22.6.
How far is ARIS from its 52-week high?
Aris Mining Corporation trades at C$22.02, about 29% below its 52-week high of C$30.90 and 62% above the low of C$13.58 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of C$11.78 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Aris Mining Corporation?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Newmont Corporation, Zijin Mining Group, Agnico Eagle Mines Limited, Wheaton Precious Metals Corp, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Aris Mining Corporation stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 7, 2026: price C$22.02, calculated fair value C$11.78 (−47%), Quality Score 48/100, from 23 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ARIS calculated?
We run Aris Mining Corporation through 23 models from 7 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of C$11.78 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. Aris Mining Corporation itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Aris Mining Corporation (ARIS)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was C$22.02. Our model-based fair value is C$11.78, about 47% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Aris Mining Corporation right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (C$18.17). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (48/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The model range is unusually wide (C$6.95 to C$18.17). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Key figures of Aris Mining Corporation
How large is the market capitalisation of Aris Mining Corporation (ARIS)?
The market capitalisation of Aris Mining Corporation is C$4.6B (≈ $3.3B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Aris Mining Corporation (ARIS)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Aris Mining Corporation is 0.92 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Aris Mining Corporation (ARIS)?
Earnings per share at Aris Mining Corporation are C$2.02 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 10.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Aris Mining Corporation (ARIS)?
The net margin of Aris Mining Corporation is 8.4% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Aris Mining Corporation (ARIS)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Aris Mining Corporation is 18.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Aris Mining Corporation (ARIS)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Aris Mining Corporation is 10.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Aris Mining Corporation (ARIS)?
The operating margin of Aris Mining Corporation is 39.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Aris Mining Corporation (ARIS)?
Revenue at Aris Mining Corporation is growing +14.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +33.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Aris Mining Corporation (ARIS)?
Earnings per share at Aris Mining Corporation are growing +52.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Aris Mining Corporation (ARIS) carry?
The net debt of Aris Mining Corporation is $133M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 1.9 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Thin data
Nov 7, 2026