Kinross Gold Corporation (KGC) Fair Value & Analysis
Basic Materials · US · Market cap $27.4B
Kinross Gold Corporation
KGC · US
Fair value as of: Jul 18, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 20 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 18, 2026, revised from $34.62 to $12.12 (−65.0%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price +7.3% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 53% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- A high-quality business (quality 73/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety.
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($23.40). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- A fairly wide model range ($9.09 to $23.40) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $2.89 – $37.97 · fair‑value band $9.09 – $23.40 · the $25.62 price screens above the $12.12 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.
Analysis
Kinross Gold Corporation (KGC) currently trades at $25.62, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $12.12, implying the stock looks roughly 52.7% overvalued today. We read business quality at 73/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Kinross Gold Corporation generated revenue of $8.0B at a net margin of 36.0%. Revenue grew 60.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 35.5%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $975M. Fundamentals as of Jul 18, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $9.09 (bear case) to $23.40 (bull case); at $25.62, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 34% below its 52-week high and 75% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 8% fair-value upside, at -53%, KGC screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($64.42) versus Dividend Discount ($2.09). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 18, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 81 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 47
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Kinross Gold Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the acquisition, exploration, and development of gold properties principally in the United States, Brazil, Chile, Canada, and Mauritania. It is also involved in the extraction and processing of gold-containing ores; reclamation of gold mining properties; and production and sale of silver.
Full company description
Kinross Gold Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the acquisition, exploration, and development of gold properties principally in the United States, Brazil, Chile, Canada, and Mauritania. It is also involved in the extraction and processing of gold-containing ores; reclamation of gold mining properties; and production and sale of silver. The company was founded in 1993 and is headquartered in Toronto, Canada.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Kinross Gold Corporation reported revenue of $7.2B in FY2025 versus $2.6B in FY2021, a compound +28.9%/yr. Reported net income was $2.4B in FY2025, compounding +82.1%/yr from FY2021.
KGC screens 53% overvalued. Compare with Newmont Corporation →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Kinross Gold (TSX:K) Looks Repriced As Fresh Results Put Its Valuation Narrative To The Test
- Kinross Gold Corp (KGC) (Q2 2026) Earnings Call Highlights: Record Free Cash Flow and Robust ...
- Kinross Gold (KGC) Q2 Earnings Surpass Estimates
- Kinross provides update on Lobo-Marte project
Peer Group
Gold · 259 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Gold median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Gold stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 18, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Newmont Corporation NEMCL | $112.00 | $132.73 | +19% |
| Zijin Mining Group 601899 | ¥28.36 | ¥30.58 | +8% |
| Agnico Eagle Mines Limited AEM | C$191.93 | C$154.33 | -20% |
| Barrick Mining Corporation B | $34.93 | $50.66 | +45% |
| Wheaton Precious Metals Corp WPM | C$152.57 | C$52.47 | -66% |
| Franco-Nevada Corporation FNV | C$284.75 | C$97.76 | -66% |
| AngloGold Ashanti plc AU | $76.35 | $88.63 | +16% |
| Gold Fields Limited GFI | $33.33 | $59.06 | +77% |
| Northern Star Resources Limited NST | A$20.48 | A$15.98 | -22% |
| Pan American Silver Corp PAAS | C$58.54 | C$40.15 | -31% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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