Royal Gold Inc (RGLD) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 8, 2026: fair value of Royal Gold Inc $219, price $231, upside -5.1%, quality 37 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 6, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $82.56 – $303.02 · fair‑value band $111.44 – $285.20 · the $231.18 price screens above the $219.39 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 2 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 6, 2026.
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Royal Gold, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, acquires and manages precious metal streams, royalties, and related interests in North America, South and Central America, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Australia Pacific.
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Royal Gold, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, acquires and manages precious metal streams, royalties, and related interests in North America, South and Central America, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Australia Pacific. It operates through Acquisition and Management of Stream Interests and Acquisition and Management of Royalty Interests segments. The company engages in the acquisition of existing stream and royalty interests; and the financing of projects that are in production, development, or in the exploration stage in exchange for stream or royalty interests, which consists of gold, silver, copper, nickel, zinc, lead, molybdenum, diamonds, uranium, iron, platinum, palladium, rhodium, lithium, titanium, cobalt, barite, tungsten, and coal. Its properties are located in Canada, Chile, the Dominican Republic, the United States, Zambia, Australia, Ghana, Brazil, Mexico, Bolivia, Argentina, Nicaragua, Macedonia, Botswana, Spain, and internationally. Royal Gold, Inc. was incorporated in 1981 and is based in Denver, Colorado.
Stock analysis
Royal Gold Inc (RGLD) currently trades at $231.18, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $219.39, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 5.4%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of $244.03 per share, and 2 of the 22 models we run sit above the $231.18 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $56.60, and 20 of the 22 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $111.44 (bear) to $285.20 (bull), the price of $231.18 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 37/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Royal Gold Inc reported revenue of $1.0B in FY2025 versus $645M in FY2021, a compound +12.4%/yr. Reported net income was $466M in FY2025, compounding +14.2%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $21.4B · P/E ratio 25.6 · P/S ratio 11.6 · EPS (TTM) $9.04 · Dividend yield 0.4% · Net margin 45.2% · Return on equity 13.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 9.7%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 47 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 24% below its 52-week high and 38% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −5%, RGLD screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $111.44Fair Value $219.39Bull $285.20
Price $231.18 · Upside -5.1%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($6.25 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.79/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+44.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+20.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +14.2% a year
Revenue growth 40 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+14.9%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
+14.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+13.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.4%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.9.9% vs 22.5%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.55% → 65%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+11.5%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+27.9%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
The revenue jump in 2026 (+83.0%) comes with 22% more shares (acquisition or merger paid in stock). Per share it is about +50.2%. The comparison above is unreliable in such a year.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +8.9% a year for the price and +25.0% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (98 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Gold · 216 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score37 · Below median
Fair Value upside−5.1% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)13.6% · Above median
Return on assets9.4% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)48.1% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)62.0% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth115.5% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)0.4% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.13× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Gold median · lower = cheaper
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Is Royal Gold Inc (RGLD) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $219.39 versus a price of $231.18, about −5% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of RGLD?
Our model-based fair value for Royal Gold Inc is $219.39 (as of Oct 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $231.18.
What is the quality score of RGLD?
Royal Gold Inc has a Quality Score of 37/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Royal Gold Inc (RGLD)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $219.39 (as of Oct 6, 2026) from 22 valuation models. Cautious scenario $111.44, optimistic scenario $285.20. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Royal Gold Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $219.39, about −5% upside versus a price of $231.18 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario $111.44, optimistic scenario $285.20. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Royal Gold Inc (RGLD)?
Royal Gold Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $1.5B (latest available figure, as of Oct 6, 2026).
Does Royal Gold Inc pay a dividend?
Royal Gold Inc currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.41% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 6, 2026).
What growth is priced into Royal Gold Inc (RGLD)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Royal Gold Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +11.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +10.8 % per year. As of Oct 6, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of RGLD use?
Our models discount Royal Gold Inc at 8.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.50, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Royal Gold Inc that is +11.5 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Royal Gold Inc (RGLD) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Royal Gold Inc grew +10.8 % a year. The price currently implies +11.5 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Royal Gold Inc (RGLD) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.1 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Royal Gold Inc (+11.5 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Royal Gold Inc (RGLD)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.58 %: that much free cash flow Royal Gold Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Royal Gold Inc (RGLD)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Royal Gold Inc it is $219.39 per share (as of Oct 6, 2026), against a price of $231.18. It is the blended result of 22 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Royal Gold Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 6, 2026, RGLD trades above its calculated fair value: price $231.18, fair value $219.39, a gap of about −5% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of RGLD?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($231.18); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($219.39). For Royal Gold Inc the two are $11.79 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Royal Gold Inc worth?
The market values Royal Gold Inc at about $21.4B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 6, 2026). Per share that is $231.18; our models calculate a fair value of $219.39 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about RGLD?
Our models span a range for Royal Gold Inc: cautious scenario $111.44, base $219.39, optimistic $285.20 per share (as of Oct 6, 2026, price $231.18). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of RGLD?
Royal Gold Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 25.6 (as of Oct 6, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $219.39 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.1, P/B 3.0, P/S 13.9, EV/EBITDA 17.3.
What is the PEG ratio of RGLD?
The PEG ratio of Royal Gold Inc is 1.06 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Oct 6, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Royal Gold Inc (RGLD)?
Balance-sheet figures for Royal Gold Inc (as of Oct 6, 2026): return on equity 13.6%, debt of 0.13 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 37/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is RGLD from its 52-week high?
Royal Gold Inc trades at $231.18, about 24% below its 52-week high of $303.02 and 38% above the low of $168.01 (as of Oct 8, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $219.39 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Royal Gold Inc?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Newmont Corporation, Zijin Mining Group, Agnico Eagle Mines Limited, Wheaton Precious Metals Corp, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Royal Gold Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 6, 2026: price $231.18, calculated fair value $219.39 (−5%), Quality Score 37/100, from 22 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of RGLD calculated?
We run Royal Gold Inc through 22 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $219.39, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Royal Gold Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Royal Gold Inc (RGLD)?
The closing price on Oct 8, 2026 was $231.18. Our model-based fair value is $219.39, about −5% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Royal Gold Inc right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. A fairly wide model range ($111.44 to $285.20) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Royal Gold Inc (RGLD) come from?
Earnings per share at Royal Gold Inc grew +20.5 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +12.3 %, EBIT margin +3.1 %, tax rate +0.2 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +3.8 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Royal Gold Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Royal Gold Inc (RGLD)?
The market capitalisation of Royal Gold Inc is $21.4B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Royal Gold Inc (RGLD)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Royal Gold Inc is 11.6 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Royal Gold Inc (RGLD)?
Earnings per share at Royal Gold Inc are $9.04 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 25.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Royal Gold Inc (RGLD)?
The dividend yield of Royal Gold Inc is 0.4% (payout 10.5%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Royal Gold Inc (RGLD)?
The net margin of Royal Gold Inc is 45.2% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Royal Gold Inc (RGLD)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Royal Gold Inc is 13.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Royal Gold Inc (RGLD)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Royal Gold Inc is 9.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Royal Gold Inc (RGLD)?
The operating margin of Royal Gold Inc is 62.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Royal Gold Inc (RGLD)?
Revenue at Royal Gold Inc is growing +116% versus a year earlier (3y avg +20.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Royal Gold Inc (RGLD)?
Earnings per share at Royal Gold Inc are growing +38.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Royal Gold Inc (RGLD) carry?
The net debt of Royal Gold Inc is $732M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 1.0 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Oct 6, 2026