Northern Star Resources Limited (NST) Fair Value & Analysis
Basic Materials · AU · Market cap A$28.7B
Fair value as of: Jul 12, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 26 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 12, 2026, revised from A$15.96 to A$15.98 (+0.1%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price +7.4% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 28% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (A$19.98). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (53/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range (A$10.10 to A$19.98) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 12, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$6.08 – A$31.47 · fair‑value band A$10.10 – A$19.98 · the A$22.19 price screens above the A$15.98 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 12, 2026.
Analysis
Northern Star Resources Limited (NST) currently trades at A$22.19, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$15.98, implying the stock looks roughly 28.0% overvalued today. We read business quality at 53/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Northern Star Resources Limited generated revenue of A$7.0B at a net margin of 22.2%. Revenue grew 19.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 12.8%. Net debt stands at A$125M. Fundamentals as of Jul 12, 2026
Our scenario range runs from A$10.10 (bear case) to A$19.98 (bull case); at A$22.19, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 30% below its 52-week high and 48% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 16% fair-value upside, at -28%, NST screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (A$42.41) versus Asset-Based (A$7.01). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 12, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 58 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 42
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Northern Star Resources Limited engages in the exploration, development, mining, and processing of gold deposits. The company also sells refined gold. It operates in Western Australia, the Northern Territory, and Alaska. Northern Star Resources Limited was incorporated in 2000 and is headquartered in Subiaco, Australia.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Northern Star Resources Limited reported revenue of A$6.4B in FY2025 versus A$2.8B in FY2021, a compound +23.5%/yr. Reported net income was A$1.3B in FY2025, compounding +6.7%/yr from FY2021.
NST screens 28% overvalued. Compare with Newmont Corporation →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Elliott Management Statement on Northern Star Resources Ltd
- How Investors Are Reacting To Northern Star Resources (ASX:NST) Elliott’s Push For Board And Strategy Overhaul
- Northern Star Resources (ASX:NST) Shares Valuation After Elliott Investment Management’s Activist Campaign
- Elliott Presses Northern Star To Reconsider Sale As Valuation Struggles
Peer Group
Gold · 259 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Gold median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Gold stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 12, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Newmont Corporation NEMCL | $112.00 | $132.73 | +19% |
| Zijin Mining Group 601899 | ¥28.36 | ¥30.58 | +8% |
| Agnico Eagle Mines Limited AEM | C$191.93 | C$154.33 | -20% |
| Barrick Mining Corporation B | $34.93 | $50.66 | +45% |
| Wheaton Precious Metals Corp WPM | C$152.57 | C$52.47 | -66% |
| Franco-Nevada Corporation FNV | C$284.75 | C$97.76 | -66% |
| AngloGold Ashanti plc AU | $76.35 | $88.63 | +16% |
| Gold Fields Limited GFI | $33.33 | $59.06 | +77% |
| Kinross Gold Corporation KGC | $22.57 | $34.62 | +53% |
| Pan American Silver Corp PAAS | C$58.54 | C$40.15 | -31% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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