BP PLC (BP) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 5, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of BP PLC stock £6.00, price £5.67, upside +5.7%, quality 57 out of 100. Rating: fairly valued. Calculated from audited financials with 25 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Keep an eye on it?Free in your watchlist: 5 stocks without an account, 10 with oneYes, for free
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 2, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range £2.87 – £6.39 · fair‑value band £4.50 – £7.50 · the £5.67 price screens below the £6.00 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 2, 2026.
Follow BP in your weekly email
Every Wednesday you see whether BP is on track or worth a review, plus price against fair value. Free, up to 3 stocks.
We send you a confirmation link. Unsubscribe with one click.
BP p.l.c., an integrated energy company, engages in the oil and gas business worldwide. The company operates through Gas & Low Carbon Energy, Oil Production & Operations, and Customers & Products segments.
Show moreShow less
It engages in the production of natural gas, marketing, and trading activities, as well as solar, wind, and hydrogen businesses. The company also offers aviation fuel products and services, such as jet fuel; aviation gasoline; UL91 aviation fuel; and sustainable aviation fuel.
In addition, it engages in the convenience and retail fuel; EV charging; Castrol lubricants and fluids; B2B; midstream; crude oil production; refining and oil trading; and bioenergy businesses. The company was founded in 1908 and is headquartered in London, the United Kingdom.
Stock analysis
BP PLC (BP) currently trades at £5.67, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is £6.00, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 5.4%).
Show more
Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of £8.72 per share, and 10 of the 25 models we run sit above the £5.67 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at £1.11, and 15 of the 25 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: £4.50 (bear) to £7.50 (bull), the price of £5.67 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 57/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
BP PLC reported revenue of $189B in FY2025 versus $155B in FY2021, a compound +5.2%/yr. Reported net income was $55.0M in FY2025, compounding −70.7%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap £91.7B Large · P/E ratio 13.5 · P/S ratio 0.52 · EPS (TTM) £0.4200 · Dividend yield 4.8% · Net margin 3.8% · Return on equity 13.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 7.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 11% below its 52-week high and 37% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −17% fair-value upside, at 6%, BP screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear£4.50Fair Value £6.00Bull£7.50
Price £5.67 · Upside +5.7%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (£0.1233 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
FCF DCF£5.97£8.82£12.6778
Growth DCF£6.12£8.72£12.0876
EPV£2.97£3.56£4.0774
All 25 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF£5.97£8.82£12.6778
Owner Earnings£0.6600£1.29£2.1572
5Y Revenue Exit£5.67£9.02£13.1470
5Y EBITDA Exit£5.69£9.04£12.7973
5Y P/E Exit£1.76£2.01£2.2070
10Y Revenue Exit£5.54£8.49£12.1564
10Y EBITDA Exit£5.73£8.51£11.9066
10Y P/E Exit£3.36£3.90£4.4163
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd£0.0200£0.0400£0.060063
PEG = 1.0£0.0100£0.0100£0.010056
EPV£2.97£3.56£4.0774
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM£2.09£3.65£5.5165
DDM Multi-Stage£2.09£3.06£4.0665
Multiples
P/E Multiple£0.0300£0.0400£0.050063
P/S Multiple£0.0300£0.0400£0.060057
P/B Multiple£2.24£2.99£3.7455
EV/EBIT£3.85£5.71£7.5665
EV/EBITDA£5.55£7.97£10.4067
EV/Revenue£5.04£7.94£10.8453
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)£0.8300£1.11£1.6654
Growth DCF
Growth DCF£6.12£8.72£12.0876
Rev-Margin DCF£5.67£9.09£12.8070
Economic Profit
Residual Income£1.43£1.52£1.6674
ROIC Compounder£3.04£3.86£4.7970
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E£0.0200£0.0300£0.040065
The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for a cyclical trough year.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+2.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−7.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −1.3% a year
Revenue growth 40 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.8%
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−53.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−58.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)4.8%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−58.5% vs −28.7%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−8% → 8%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 4.4%/yr over ~10Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+1.1%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
−0.6%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in USD, USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −1.3% a year for the price and −2.9% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (100 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.
AI conclusion: BP benefits from integrated refining capabilities that aid debt reduction, yet its main weakness remains persistently low profitability and few unique moats in a commoditized sector.
Main risk: Ongoing climate-related lawsuits from governments and localities could result in financial liabilities or operational restrictions for BP's oil and gas production and sales.
Bull case: BP could leverage its trading expertise and selective partnerships in lower-carbon areas to maintain relevance as energy demand evolves toward electricity and integrated solutions.
Bear case: If climate litigation escalates and the energy transition speeds up via rivals' offerings, BP's oil and gas assets could face sustained lower demand, higher compliance costs and constrained access to capital.
BP has cut its expected net debt sharply for the third quarter thanks to stronger refining margins and divestment proceeds, yet it also flags several billion in impairments concentrated in the gas and low-carbon segment. The contrast highlights how much of the balance-sheet progress rests on near-term energy prices and asset sales rather than core operations alone. Will the upstream portfolio deliver steadier cash flows going forward, or will transition-related charges keep requiring fresh adjustments?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Free, no sign-up
Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas Integrated · 43 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/15 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score57 · Above median
Fair Value upside+5.7% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)13.4% · Above median
Return on assets0.0% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months)3.8% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months)18.6% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)41.4% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)4.8% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.03× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas Integrated median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "BP PLC Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/BP
Frequently asked questions
Is BP PLC (BP) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 2, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of £6.00 versus a price of £5.67, about +6% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of BP?
Our model-based fair value for BP PLC is £6.00 (as of Nov 2, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: £5.67.
What is the quality score of BP?
BP PLC has a Quality Score of 57/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for BP PLC (BP)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of £6.00 (as of Nov 2, 2026) from 25 valuation models. Cautious scenario £4.50, optimistic scenario £7.50. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the BP PLC stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at £6.00, about +6% upside versus a price of £5.67 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario £4.50, optimistic scenario £7.50. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of BP PLC (BP)?
BP PLC reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $235B (latest available figure, as of Nov 2, 2026).
Does BP PLC pay a dividend?
BP PLC currently shows a dividend yield of 4.84% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 2, 2026).
What growth is priced into BP PLC (BP)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, BP PLC would have to grow free cash flow by +1.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +11.0 % per year. As of Nov 2, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of BP use?
Our models discount BP PLC at 9.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), country premium for United Kingdom. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For BP PLC that is +1.1 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has BP PLC (BP) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at BP PLC grew +11.0 % a year. The price currently implies +1.1 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of BP PLC (BP) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +14.1 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into BP PLC (+1.1 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of BP PLC (BP)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 9.44 %: that much free cash flow BP PLC produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of BP PLC (BP)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For BP PLC it is £6.00 per share (as of Nov 2, 2026), against a price of £5.67. It is the blended result of 25 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is BP PLC stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 2, 2026, BP trades below its calculated fair value: price £5.67, fair value £6.00, a gap of about +6% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of BP?
No. The price is what the market pays today (£5.67); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (£6.00). For BP PLC the two are £0.3260 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is BP PLC worth?
The market values BP PLC at about £91.7B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 2, 2026). Per share that is £5.67; our models calculate a fair value of £6.00 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about BP?
Our models span a range for BP PLC: cautious scenario £4.50, base £6.00, optimistic £7.50 per share (as of Nov 2, 2026, price £5.67). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of BP?
BP PLC trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 13.5 (as of Nov 2, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of £6.00 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 8 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings: 35.3. Other multiples: PEG 0.1, P/B 2.3, P/S 0.5, EV/EBITDA 3.0.
What is the PEG ratio of BP?
The PEG ratio of BP PLC is 0.05 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 2, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of BP PLC (BP)?
Balance-sheet figures for BP PLC (as of Nov 2, 2026): return on equity 13.4%, debt of 1.03 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 57/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is BP from its 52-week high?
BP PLC trades at £5.67, about 11% below its 52-week high of £6.39 and 37% above the low of £4.15 (as of Nov 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of £6.00 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to BP PLC?
From the same area (Energy) we also value Saudi Arabian Oil Company, Exxon Mobil Corporation, Chevron Corporation, PetroChina Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is BP PLC stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 2, 2026: price £5.67, calculated fair value £6.00 (+6%), Quality Score 57/100, from 25 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of BP calculated?
We run BP PLC through 25 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of £6.00, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. BP PLC currently trades 5% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of BP PLC (BP)?
The closing price on Nov 5, 2026 was £5.67. Our model-based fair value is £6.00, about +6% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with BP PLC right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety. Read the verdict with care: some models are missing inputs, so the estimate scatters more than usual.
Key figures of BP PLC
How large is the market capitalisation of BP PLC (BP)?
The market capitalisation of BP PLC is £91.7B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of BP PLC (BP)?
The price-to-sales ratio of BP PLC is 0.52 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of BP PLC (BP)?
Earnings per share at BP PLC are £0.4200 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 13.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of BP PLC (BP)?
The dividend yield of BP PLC is 4.8% (payout 65.4%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of BP PLC (BP)?
The net margin of BP PLC is 3.8% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of BP PLC (BP)?
The return on equity (ROE) of BP PLC is 13.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of BP PLC (BP)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of BP PLC is 7.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of BP PLC (BP)?
The operating margin of BP PLC is 18.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at BP PLC (BP)?
Revenue at BP PLC is growing +41.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg −7.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at BP PLC (BP)?
Earnings per share at BP PLC are growing +305% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does BP PLC (BP) carry?
The net debt of BP PLC is $36.0B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 3.2 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
Free · no account needed
Watch BP PLC in the live analysis
One click puts BP PLC on your watchlist: fair value and trend at a glance, plus comparison, the diversification check and the 27,000+ stock screener.
Some data
Nov 2, 2026