Equinor ASA (EQNR) Fair Value & Analysis
Energy · US · Market cap $80.6B
Equinor ASA
EQNR · US
Fair value as of: Jul 16, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 22 days ago
Share price +16.4% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 12% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- Solid but not exceptional quality (68/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range ($20.83 to $43.17) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $13.00 – $41.97 · fair‑value band $20.83 – $43.17 · the $39.46 price screens above the $34.53 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
Analysis
Equinor ASA (EQNR) currently trades at $39.46, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $34.53, implying the stock looks roughly 12.5% overvalued today. We read business quality at 68/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Equinor ASA generated revenue of $104B at a net margin of 5.3%. Revenue declined 5.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 12.4%. Net debt stands at $28.4B. Fundamentals as of Jul 16, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $20.83 (bear case) to $43.17 (bull case); at $39.46, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 8% below its 52-week high and 81% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at -25% fair-value upside, at -12%, EQNR screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($68.02) versus Asset-Based ($10.88). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 16, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 57 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 78
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Equinor ASA operates as an energy company in Norway and internationally. It operates through Exploration & Production Norway; Exploration & Production International; Exploration & Production USA; Marketing, Midstream & Processing; and Renewables segments.
Full company description
Equinor ASA operates as an energy company in Norway and internationally. It operates through Exploration & Production Norway; Exploration & Production International; Exploration & Production USA; Marketing, Midstream & Processing; and Renewables segments. The company engages in the discovery and appraisal of new resources, as well as commercial development and operation of the oil and gas portfolios; oil and gas field development, well deliveries, and sourcing; research, technology development, specialist advisory services, digitalization, IT, improvement, innovation, and ventures and future business; and developing, exploring, investing in, and operating areas within renewable energy, such as offshore wind, green hydrogen, storage solutions, and solar power. It is also involved in the marketing, trading, processing, and transportation of crude oil and condensate, natural gas, NGL and refined products, including refineries, terminals, and processing plant operation; power and emissions trading; development of transportation solutions for natural gas, liquids, and crude oil, including pipelines, shipping, trucking, and rail; and provision of low carbon solutions. The company was formerly known as Statoil ASA and changed its name to Equinor ASA in May 2018. Equinor ASA was incorporated in 1972 and is headquartered in Stavanger, Norway.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Equinor ASA reported revenue of $106B in FY2025 versus $88.7B in FY2021, a compound +4.6%/yr. Reported net income was $5.1B in FY2025, compounding −12.3%/yr from FY2021.
EQNR screens 12% overvalued. Compare with Saudi Arabian Oil Company →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Equinor’s Best Quarter in Years Came With an Asterisk Its Own CFO Pointed Out
- Equinor ASA: Share buy-back – third tranche for 2026
Peer Group
Oil & Gas Integrated · 54 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Oil & Gas Integrated median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Oil & Gas Integrated stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 16, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Saudi Arabian Oil Company 2222 | 26.72 SAR | 20.14 SAR | -25% |
| Exxon Mobil Corporation XOM | $144.51 | $90.37 | -37% |
| Chevron Corporation CHEV | C$22.88 | C$7.97 | -65% |
| PetroChina Company 601857 | ¥10.29 | ¥16.51 | +60% |
| Shell plc SHELL | €38.04 | €46.09 | +21% |
| TotalEnergies SE TTE | C$13.80 | C$7.92 | -43% |
| Petróleo Brasileiro S.A PETR3 | 12,540 ARS | 30,914 ARS | +147% |
| BP p.l.c., an integrated energy company, BP | $40.83 | $12.71 | -69% |
| China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation 600028 | ¥5.03 | ¥4.46 | -11% |
| Eni S.p.A ENI | €21.70 | €15.13 | -30% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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