BP p.l.c., an integrated energy company, (BP) Fair Value & Analysis
Energy · US · Market cap $103B
BP p.l.c., an integrated energy company,
BP · US
Fair value as of: Jul 15, 2026
From 25 valuation models · updated 23 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 15, 2026, revised from $37.08 to $12.71 (−65.7%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price +9.4% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 70% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($12.71). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (60/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 15, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $17.99 – $47.09 · fair‑value band $10.30 – $12.71 · the $42.23 price screens above the $12.71 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 15, 2026.
Analysis
BP p.l.c., an integrated energy company, (BP) currently trades at $42.23, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $12.71, implying the stock looks roughly 69.9% overvalued today. We read business quality at 60/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, BP p.l.c., an integrated energy company, generated revenue of $193B at a net margin of 1.7%. Revenue grew 11.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 5.8%. Net debt stands at $47.7B. Fundamentals as of Jul 15, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $10.30 (bear case) to $12.71 (bull case); at $42.23, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 12% below its 52-week high and 50% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at -11% fair-value upside, at -70%, BP screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 25 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($60.10) versus Earnings-Based ($0.3400). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 15, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 52 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 66
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
BP p.l.c., an integrated energy company, engages in the oil and gas business worldwide. The company operates through Gas & Low Carbon Energy, Oil Production & Operations, and Customers & Products segments. It engages in the production of natural gas, marketing, and trading activities, as well as solar, wind, and hydrogen businesses.
Full company description
BP p.l.c., an integrated energy company, engages in the oil and gas business worldwide. The company operates through Gas & Low Carbon Energy, Oil Production & Operations, and Customers & Products segments. It engages in the production of natural gas, marketing, and trading activities, as well as solar, wind, and hydrogen businesses. The company also offers aviation fuel products and services, such as jet fuel; aviation gasoline; UL91 aviation fuel; and sustainable aviation fuel. In addition, it engages in the convenience and retail fuel; EV charging; Castrol lubricants and fluids; B2B; midstream; crude oil production; refining and oil trading; and bioenergy businesses. The company was founded in 1908 and is headquartered in London, the United Kingdom.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
BP p.l.c., an integrated energy company, reported revenue of $189B in FY2025 versus $158B in FY2021, a compound +4.7%/yr. Reported net income was $55.0M in FY2025, compounding −70.8%/yr from FY2021.
BP screens 70% overvalued. Compare with Saudi Arabian Oil Company →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- End Labour tax raid to halt BP’s North Sea exit, Scottish leaders urge
- Wall Street's Insights Into Key Metrics Ahead of BP (BP) Q2 Earnings
Peer Group
Oil & Gas Integrated · 54 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Oil & Gas Integrated median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Oil & Gas Integrated stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 15, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Saudi Arabian Oil Company 2222 | 26.72 SAR | 20.14 SAR | -25% |
| Exxon Mobil Corporation XOM | $144.51 | $90.37 | -37% |
| Chevron Corporation CHEV | C$22.88 | C$7.97 | -65% |
| PetroChina Company 601857 | ¥10.29 | ¥16.51 | +60% |
| Shell plc SHELL | €38.04 | €46.09 | +21% |
| TotalEnergies SE TTE | C$13.80 | C$7.92 | -43% |
| Petróleo Brasileiro S.A PETR3 | 12,540 ARS | 30,914 ARS | +147% |
| China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation 600028 | ¥5.03 | ¥4.46 | -11% |
| Equinor ASA EQNR | $36.19 | $34.53 | -5% |
| Eni S.p.A ENI | €21.70 | €15.13 | -30% |
Compare BP p.l.c., an integrated energy company, with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Explore undervalued stocks
More undervalued Energy stocks →
Frequently asked questions
Is BP p.l.c., an integrated energy company, (BP) overvalued or undervalued?
What is the fair value of BP?
What is the quality score of BP?
What is the revenue of BP p.l.c., an integrated energy company, (BP)?
What is the net profit margin of BP?
Does BP p.l.c., an integrated energy company, pay a dividend?
How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
Track BP p.l.c., an integrated energy company, and try Pro for 14 days
One email gets you 14 days of full Pro (review alerts, the 35,000+ stock screener, the diversification check) plus the monthly Top-25 report of the most undervalued quality stocks. No card, cancel anytime.
Zero risk: nothing is ever charged. After 14 days you decide whether to stay.