BP PLC (BP) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what BP PLC is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 18, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range £2.17 – £5.99 · the £5.43 price screens above the £3.08 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 18, 2026.
BP p.l.c., an integrated energy company, engages in the oil and gas business worldwide. The company operates through Gas & Low Carbon Energy, Oil Production & Operations, and Customers & Products segments. It engages in the production of natural gas, marketing, and trading activities, as well as solar, wind, and hydrogen businesses.
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BP p.l.c., an integrated energy company, engages in the oil and gas business worldwide. The company operates through Gas & Low Carbon Energy, Oil Production & Operations, and Customers & Products segments. It engages in the production of natural gas, marketing, and trading activities, as well as solar, wind, and hydrogen businesses. The company also offers aviation fuel products and services, such as jet fuel; aviation gasoline; UL91 aviation fuel; and sustainable aviation fuel. In addition, it engages in the convenience and retail fuel; EV charging; Castrol lubricants and fluids; B2B; midstream; crude oil production; refining and oil trading; and bioenergy businesses. The company was founded in 1908 and is headquartered in London, the United Kingdom.
Stock analysis
BP PLC (BP) currently trades at £5.43, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is £3.08, implying the stock looks roughly 76.3% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of £10.30 per share, and 12 of the 25 models we run sit above the £5.43 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at £2.12, and 13 of the 25 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 57/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
BP PLC reported revenue of $189B in FY2025 versus $155B in FY2021, a compound +5.2%/yr. Reported net income was $55.0M in FY2025, compounding −70.7%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 86.4B GBX · P/E ratio 33.9 · EPS (TTM) £0.1600 · Dividend yield 4.5% · Net margin 0.0% · Return on equity 5.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 7.9% · Operating margin 15.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −11% fair-value upside, at −43%, BP screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear £3.08Fair Value £3.08Bull £3.08
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+2.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−7.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.0%
Revenue growth 40 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.8%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−54.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−58.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)4.5%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−59% vs −29%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−8% → 8%
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 4.4%/yr over ~10Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (99 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas Integrated · 53 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score57 · Above median
Fair Value upside−57% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)6% · Below median
Return on assets4% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)2% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)15% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth12% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)4.5% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.03× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas Integrated median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)33.9× · Priciest 25%
P/B2.03× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM)0.56× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF9.5× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA3.7× · Cheapest 25%
PEG0.04× · Cheapest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 13
FUTURE (revenue growth)58· sector 12
PAST (return on equity)23· sector 48
HEALTH (low debt)49· sector 86
DIVIDEND (yield)91· sector 73
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "BP PLC Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/BP
Frequently asked questions
Is BP PLC (BP) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 18, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of £3.08 versus a price of £5.43, about −43% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of BP?
Our model-based fair value for BP PLC is £3.08 (as of Sep 18, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: £5.43.
What is the quality score of BP?
BP PLC has a Quality Score of 57/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for BP PLC (BP)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of £3.08 (as of Sep 18, 2026) from 25 valuation models. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the BP PLC stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at £3.08, about −43% upside versus a price of £5.43 (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of BP PLC (BP)?
BP PLC reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $193B (latest available figure, as of Sep 18, 2026).
Does BP PLC pay a dividend?
BP PLC currently shows a dividend yield of about 4.55% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 18, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of BP PLC (BP)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For BP PLC it is £3.08 per share (as of Sep 18, 2026), against a price of £5.43. It is the blended result of 25 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is BP PLC stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 18, 2026, BP trades above its calculated fair value: price £5.43, fair value £3.08, a gap of about −43% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of BP?
No. The price is what the market pays today (£5.43); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (£3.08). For BP PLC the two are £2.35 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is BP PLC worth?
The market values BP PLC at about 86.4B GBX (market capitalisation, as of Sep 18, 2026). Per share that is £5.43; our models calculate a fair value of £3.08 per share.
What is the P/E ratio of BP?
BP PLC trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 33.9 (as of Sep 18, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of £3.08 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.0, P/B 2.0, P/S 0.6, EV/EBITDA 3.7.
What is the PEG ratio of BP?
The PEG ratio of BP PLC is 0.04 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 18, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of BP PLC (BP)?
Balance-sheet figures for BP PLC (as of Sep 18, 2026): return on equity 5.8%, debt of 1.03 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 57/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
Which stocks are comparable to BP PLC?
From the same area (Energy) we also value Exxon Mobil Corporation, Chevron Corporation, PetroChina Company, Shell plc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is BP PLC stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 18, 2026: price £5.43, calculated fair value £3.08 (−43%), Quality Score 57/100, from 25 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of BP calculated?
We run BP PLC through 25 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of £3.08, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 16.1 % above its aggregate fair value. BP PLC itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of BP PLC (BP)?
The closing price on Sep 21, 2026 was £5.43. Our model-based fair value is £3.08, about −43% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with BP PLC right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (£3.08). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (57/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of BP PLC
How large is the market capitalisation of BP PLC (BP)?
The market capitalisation of BP PLC is 86.4B GBX. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What are the earnings per share of BP PLC (BP)?
Earnings per share at BP PLC are £0.1600 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 33.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of BP PLC (BP)?
The dividend yield of BP PLC is 4.5% (payout 154%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of BP PLC (BP)?
The net margin of BP PLC is 0.0% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of BP PLC (BP)?
The return on equity (ROE) of BP PLC is 5.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of BP PLC (BP)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of BP PLC is 7.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of BP PLC (BP)?
The operating margin of BP PLC is 15.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at BP PLC (BP)?
Revenue at BP PLC is growing +11.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg −7.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at BP PLC (BP)?
Earnings per share at BP PLC are growing +475% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does BP PLC (BP) generate?
The free cash flow of BP PLC is $11.3B (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does BP PLC (BP) carry?
The net debt of BP PLC is $36.0B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 3.2 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Some data
Sep 18, 2026