PetroChina Company (601857) Fair Value & Analysis
Energy · CN · Market cap 1.9T CNY
Fair value as of: Jul 19, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 19 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 19, 2026, revised from ¥16.51 to ¥10.38 (−37.1%) since Jul 11, 2026. Share price +17.0% over the past month.
A solid business, currently priced close to our fair value.
What matters now
- The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
- A fairly wide model range (¥7.14 to ¥12.98) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 19, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥3.66 – ¥13.24 · fair‑value band ¥7.14 – ¥12.98 · the ¥10.68 price screens above the ¥10.38 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 19, 2026.
Analysis
PetroChina Company (601857) currently trades at ¥10.68, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥10.38, implying the stock looks roughly 2.8% fairly valued today. We read business quality at 56/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, PetroChina Company generated revenue of 2.8T CNY at a net margin of 5.6%. Revenue declined 2.2% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 9.6%. Net debt stands at 154B CNY. Fundamentals as of Jul 19, 2026
Our scenario range runs from ¥7.14 (bear case) to ¥12.98 (bull case); at ¥10.68, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 22% below its 52-week high and 33% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at -25% fair-value upside, at -3%, 601857 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples (¥19.43) versus Asset-Based (¥6.56). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 19, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 57 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 53
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
PetroChina Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in a range of petroleum related products, services, and activities in Mainland China and internationally. It operates through the Oil and Gas and New Energy; Refining, Chemicals and New Materials; Sales; and Natural Gas Sales Segments.
Full company description
PetroChina Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in a range of petroleum related products, services, and activities in Mainland China and internationally. It operates through the Oil and Gas and New Energy; Refining, Chemicals and New Materials; Sales; and Natural Gas Sales Segments. The Oil, Gas and New Energy Resource segment engages in the exploration, development, transportation, production, and marketing of crude oil and natural gas, as well as is involved in the new energy resource business. The Refining, Chemicals and New Materials segment refines crude oil and petroleum products; and produces and markets primary petrochemical products, derivative chemical products, and other chemical products; as well as engages in new materials business. The Sales segment is involved in the marketing of refined and non-oil products, and trading business. The Natural Gas Sales segment engages in the transmission and sale of natural gas. It is also involved in the exploration, development, and production of oil sands and coalbed methane; trading of crude oil and petrochemical products; investment in refining; storage, chemical engineering, storage facilities, service station, and transportation facilities and related businesses; chemical technology development; and provision of technology transfer and technical services. The company was incorporated in 1999 and is headquartered in Beijing, the People's Republic of China. PetroChina Company Limited operates as a subsidiary of China National Petroleum Corporation.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
PetroChina Company reported revenue of ¥2.9T in FY2025 versus ¥2.6T in FY2021, a compound +2.3%/yr. Reported net income was ¥157B in FY2025, compounding +14.3%/yr from FY2021.
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Peer Group
Oil & Gas Integrated · 54 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Oil & Gas Integrated median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Oil & Gas Integrated stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 19, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Saudi Arabian Oil Company 2222 | 26.72 SAR | 20.14 SAR | -25% |
| Exxon Mobil Corporation XOM | $144.51 | $90.37 | -37% |
| Chevron Corporation CHEV | C$22.88 | C$7.97 | -65% |
| Shell plc SHELL | €38.04 | €46.09 | +21% |
| TotalEnergies SE TTE | C$13.80 | C$7.92 | -43% |
| Petróleo Brasileiro S.A PETR3 | 12,540 ARS | 30,914 ARS | +147% |
| BP p.l.c., an integrated energy company, BP | $40.83 | $12.71 | -69% |
| China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation 600028 | ¥5.03 | ¥4.46 | -11% |
| Equinor ASA EQNR | $36.19 | $34.53 | -5% |
| Eni S.p.A ENI | €21.70 | €15.13 | -30% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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