PetroChina Co Ltd Class A (601857) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what PetroChina Co Ltd Class A is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 17, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥3.66 – ¥13.24 · fair‑value band ¥6.18 – ¥12.16 · the ¥10.56 price screens above the ¥9.46 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 17, 2026.
PetroChina Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in a range of petroleum related products, services, and activities in Mainland China and internationally. It operates through the Oil and Gas and New Energy; Refining, Chemicals and New Materials; Sales; and Natural Gas Sales Segments.
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PetroChina Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in a range of petroleum related products, services, and activities in Mainland China and internationally. It operates through the Oil and Gas and New Energy; Refining, Chemicals and New Materials; Sales; and Natural Gas Sales Segments. The Oil, Gas and New Energy Resource segment engages in the exploration, development, transportation, production, and marketing of crude oil and natural gas, as well as is involved in the new energy resource business. The Refining, Chemicals and New Materials segment refines crude oil and petroleum products; and produces and markets primary petrochemical products, derivative chemical products, and other chemical products; as well as engages in new materials business. The Sales segment is involved in the marketing of refined and non-oil products, and trading business. The Natural Gas Sales segment engages in the transmission and sale of natural gas. It is also involved in the exploration, development, and production of oil sands and coalbed methane; trading of crude oil and petrochemical products; investment in refining; storage, chemical engineering, storage facilities, service station, and transportation facilities and related businesses; chemical technology development; and provision of technology transfer and technical services. The company was incorporated in 1999 and is headquartered in Beijing, the People's Republic of China. PetroChina Company Limited operates as a subsidiary of China National Petroleum Corporation.
Stock analysis
PetroChina Co Ltd Class A (601857) currently trades at ¥10.56, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥9.46, implying the stock looks roughly 11.6% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of ¥16.51 per share, and 21 of the 26 models we run sit above the ¥10.56 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at ¥6.56, and 5 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: ¥6.18 (bear) to ¥12.16 (bull), the price of ¥10.56 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 57/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
PetroChina Co Ltd Class A reported revenue of 2.9T CNY in FY2025 versus 2.6T CNY in FY2021, a compound +2.3%/yr. Reported net income was 157B CNY in FY2025, compounding +14.3%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 1.9T CNY (≈ $289B) · P/E ratio 11.8 · P/S ratio 0.65 · EPS (TTM) ¥0.8700 · Dividend yield 4.5% · Net margin 5.5% · Return on equity 9.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 8.0%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 23% below its 52-week high and 31% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −19% fair-value upside, at −10%, 601857 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear ¥6.18Fair Value ¥9.46Bull ¥12.16
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (¥0.2832 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−2.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−4.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.2%
Revenue growth 26 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.3%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+32.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+28.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)4.5%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.28% vs 16%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.4% → 8%
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+1.9%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
−1.0%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (99 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Very negative
Compare PetroChina Co Ltd Class A with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas Integrated · 53 stocks
Beats the industry median on 11/15 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score57 · Above median
Fair Value upside+39% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)10% · Below median
Return on assets5% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)6% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)9% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−2% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)4.5% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.10× · Lowest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas Integrated median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "PetroChina Co Ltd Class A Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/601857
Frequently asked questions
Is PetroChina Co Ltd Class A (601857) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 17, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥9.46 versus a price of ¥10.56, about −10% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 601857?
Our model-based fair value for PetroChina Co Ltd Class A is ¥9.46 (as of Sep 17, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥10.56.
What is the quality score of 601857?
PetroChina Co Ltd Class A has a Quality Score of 57/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for PetroChina Co Ltd Class A (601857)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥9.46 (as of Sep 17, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥6.18, optimistic scenario ¥12.16. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the PetroChina Co Ltd Class A stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥9.46, about −10% upside versus a price of ¥10.56 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ¥6.18, optimistic scenario ¥12.16. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of PetroChina Co Ltd Class A (601857)?
PetroChina Co Ltd Class A reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 2.8T CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 17, 2026).
Does PetroChina Co Ltd Class A pay a dividend?
PetroChina Co Ltd Class A currently shows a dividend yield of about 4.45% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 17, 2026).
What growth is priced into PetroChina Co Ltd Class A (601857)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, PetroChina Co Ltd Class A would have to grow free cash flow by +1.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +8.2 % per year. As of Sep 17, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 601857 use?
Our models discount PetroChina Co Ltd Class A at 8.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (mega), damped by beta 0.55, country premium for China. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For PetroChina Co Ltd Class A that is +1.9 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has PetroChina Co Ltd Class A (601857) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at PetroChina Co Ltd Class A grew +8.2 % a year. The price currently implies +1.9 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of PetroChina Co Ltd Class A (601857) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +1.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into PetroChina Co Ltd Class A (+1.9 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of PetroChina Co Ltd Class A (601857)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 6.19 %: that much free cash flow PetroChina Co Ltd Class A produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of PetroChina Co Ltd Class A (601857)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For PetroChina Co Ltd Class A it is ¥9.46 per share (as of Sep 17, 2026), against a price of ¥10.56. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is PetroChina Co Ltd Class A stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 17, 2026, 601857 trades above its calculated fair value: price ¥10.56, fair value ¥9.46, a gap of about −10% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 601857?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥10.56); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥9.46). For PetroChina Co Ltd Class A the two are ¥1.10 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is PetroChina Co Ltd Class A worth?
The market values PetroChina Co Ltd Class A at about 1.9T CNY (market capitalisation, as of Sep 17, 2026). Per share that is ¥10.56; our models calculate a fair value of ¥9.46 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 601857?
Our models span a range for PetroChina Co Ltd Class A: cautious scenario ¥6.18, base ¥9.46, optimistic ¥12.16 per share (as of Sep 17, 2026, price ¥10.56). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 601857?
PetroChina Co Ltd Class A trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 11.8 (as of Sep 17, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ¥9.46 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.3, P/B 1.2, P/S 0.7, EV/EBITDA 3.8.
What is the PEG ratio of 601857?
The PEG ratio of PetroChina Co Ltd Class A is 0.28 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 17, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of PetroChina Co Ltd Class A (601857)?
Balance-sheet figures for PetroChina Co Ltd Class A (as of Sep 17, 2026): return on equity 9.6%, debt of 0.10 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 57/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 601857 from its 52-week high?
PetroChina Co Ltd Class A trades at ¥10.56, about 23% below its 52-week high of ¥13.69 and 31% above the low of ¥8.04 (as of Sep 17, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥9.46 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to PetroChina Co Ltd Class A?
From the same area (Energy) we also value Exxon Mobil Corporation, Chevron Corporation, Shell plc, TotalEnergies SE, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is PetroChina Co Ltd Class A stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 17, 2026: price ¥10.56, calculated fair value ¥9.46 (−10%), Quality Score 57/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 601857 calculated?
We run PetroChina Co Ltd Class A through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ¥9.46, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 16.1 % above its aggregate fair value. PetroChina Co Ltd Class A itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of PetroChina Co Ltd Class A (601857)?
The closing price on Sep 18, 2026 was ¥10.56. Our model-based fair value is ¥9.46, about −10% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with PetroChina Co Ltd Class A right now?
A fairly wide model range (¥6.18 to ¥12.16) leaves room in how you read the outcome. The price sits in the upper half of our model range, so the margin of safety is thin. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Where does the earnings growth of PetroChina Co Ltd Class A (601857) come from?
Earnings per share at PetroChina Co Ltd Class A grew +6.4 % a year from 2013 to 2024. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +4.3 %, EBIT margin +1.3 %, tax rate −0.2 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.8 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of PetroChina Co Ltd Class A
How large is the market capitalisation of PetroChina Co Ltd Class A (601857)?
The market capitalisation of PetroChina Co Ltd Class A is 1.9T CNY (≈ $289B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of PetroChina Co Ltd Class A (601857)?
The price-to-sales ratio of PetroChina Co Ltd Class A is 0.65 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of PetroChina Co Ltd Class A (601857)?
Earnings per share at PetroChina Co Ltd Class A are ¥0.8700 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 11.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of PetroChina Co Ltd Class A (601857)?
The dividend yield of PetroChina Co Ltd Class A is 4.5% (payout 54.0%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of PetroChina Co Ltd Class A (601857)?
The net margin of PetroChina Co Ltd Class A is 5.5% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of PetroChina Co Ltd Class A (601857)?
The return on equity (ROE) of PetroChina Co Ltd Class A is 9.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of PetroChina Co Ltd Class A (601857)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of PetroChina Co Ltd Class A is 8.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of PetroChina Co Ltd Class A (601857)?
The operating margin of PetroChina Co Ltd Class A is 9.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at PetroChina Co Ltd Class A (601857)?
Revenue at PetroChina Co Ltd Class A is growing −2.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg −4.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at PetroChina Co Ltd Class A (601857)?
Earnings per share at PetroChina Co Ltd Class A are growing +1.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does PetroChina Co Ltd Class A (601857) carry?
The net debt of PetroChina Co Ltd Class A is 154B CNY (fiscal year 2024, ≈ 1.3 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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