Carrier Global Corp (CARR) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 4, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Carrier Global Corp stock $19.35, price $55.66, that is 65.2% below the price, quality 48 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 22 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 3, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $32.15 – $80.43 · fair‑value band $11.11 – $30.31 · the $55.66 price screens above the $19.35 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 3, 2026.
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Carrier Global Corporation provides intelligent climate and energy solutions in the United States, Europe, the Asia Pacific, and internationally.
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It operates through four segments: Climate Solutions Americas; Climate Solutions Europe; Climate Solutions Asia Pacific, Middle East & Africa; and Climate Solutions Transportation.
The company provides air conditioners, heating systems, heat pumps, home and building energy management systems, automation systems, aftermarket components, and repair and maintenance and rental services, as well as modernization and upgrades to meet the heating, cooling, and ventilation needs of residential and commercial customers.
It also offers transport refrigeration and monitoring products, services, and digital solutions for trucks, trailers, shipping containers, and intermodal and rail applications.
The company offers its products under the Carrier, Viessmann, Toshiba, Automated Logic, Bryant, CIAT, Day & Night, Heil, NORESCO, Carrier Transicold, and Sensitech brands. The company was incorporated in 2019 and is headquartered in Palm Beach Gardens, Florida.
Stock analysis
Carrier Global Corp (CARR) currently trades at $55.66, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $19.35, 65% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $30.84 per share, and 0 of the 22 models we run sit above the $55.66 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $8.39, and 22 of the 22 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $11.11 (bear) to $30.31 (bull), the price of $55.66 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 48/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Carrier Global Corp reported revenue of $21.7B in FY2025 versus $20.6B in FY2021, a compound +1.3%/yr. Reported net income was $1.5B in FY2025, compounding −2.8%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $46.7B Large · P/S ratio 1.98 · EPS (TTM) $−2.21 · Dividend yield 1.7% · Net margin −7.9% · Return on equity −13.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 7.0% · Operating margin 11.0%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 40 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 26% below its 52-week high and 12% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −26% fair-value upside, at −65%, CARR screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$11.11Fair Value $19.35Bull$30.31
Price $55.66 · Downside -65.2%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, one officer or director sold shares worth $750.0M and none bought.
SaleMaximilian ViessmannDirector12,094,823 shares at $62.01$750.0MMay 20, 2026
BuyDavid L. GitlinChairman and CEO, Director19,300 shares at $52.62$1.0MNov 25, 2025
Plus 3 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.57/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−3.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 8 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.5%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
−0.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−2.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.7%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.18% → 9%
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+20.1%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+6.1%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +17.3% a year for the price and +3.7% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (98 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
AI conclusion: Carrier's HVAC brand and distribution provide a moderate moat in commercial segments, yet the business shows only average returns, limited standout advantages and elevated leverage with debt above equity.
Main risk: Persistent residential HVAC weakness and exposure to traditional construction cycles could reduce demand in core building markets and limit overall results.
Carrier sees strong order growth in commercial HVAC from data center demand tied to AI infrastructure, yet residential HVAC continues to face headwinds. This split leaves the business model exposed to both high-growth tech cycles and more traditional construction markets. Will the data center momentum prove durable enough to drive overall results, or will residential weakness and cyclical pressures dominate?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Building Products & Equipment · 254 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/12 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score48 · Below median
Fair Value upside−65.2% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets4.0% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)−7.9% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months)11.0% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)12.3% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)1.7% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.82× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Building Products & Equipment median · lower = cheaper
P/B3.39× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
P/S (12 months)2.05× · Pricier than median
Price / free cash flow27.5× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA17.4× · Priciest 25%
PEG1.05× · Cheaper than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 13
FUTURE (revenue growth)62· sector 25
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 24
HEALTH (low debt)59· sector 95
DIVIDEND (yield)34· sector 43
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Carrier Global Corp Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/CARR
Frequently asked questions
Is Carrier Global Corp (CARR) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 3, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $19.35 versus a price of $55.66, about 65% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of CARR?
Our model-based fair value for Carrier Global Corp is $19.35 (as of Nov 3, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $55.66.
What is the quality score of CARR?
Carrier Global Corp has a Quality Score of 48/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Carrier Global Corp (CARR)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $19.35 (as of Nov 3, 2026) from 22 valuation models. Cautious scenario $11.11, optimistic scenario $30.31. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Carrier Global Corp stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $19.35, about 65% lower versus a price of $55.66 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $11.11, optimistic scenario $30.31. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Carrier Global Corp (CARR)?
Carrier Global Corp reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $22.8B (latest available figure, as of Nov 3, 2026).
Does Carrier Global Corp pay a dividend?
Carrier Global Corp currently shows a dividend yield of 1.72% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 3, 2026).
What growth is priced into Carrier Global Corp (CARR)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Carrier Global Corp would have to grow free cash flow by +20.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +4.5 % per year. As of Nov 3, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of CARR use?
Our models discount Carrier Global Corp at 10.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 1.33, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Carrier Global Corp that is +20.1 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Carrier Global Corp (CARR) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Carrier Global Corp grew +4.5 % a year. The price currently implies +20.1 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Carrier Global Corp (CARR) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Carrier Global Corp (+20.1 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Carrier Global Corp (CARR)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.63 %: that much free cash flow Carrier Global Corp produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Carrier Global Corp (CARR)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Carrier Global Corp it is $19.35 per share (as of Nov 3, 2026), against a price of $55.66. It is the blended result of 22 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Carrier Global Corp stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 3, 2026, CARR trades above its calculated fair value: price $55.66, fair value $19.35, a gap of about −65% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CARR?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($55.66); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($19.35). For Carrier Global Corp the two are $36.31 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Carrier Global Corp worth?
The market values Carrier Global Corp at about $46.7B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 3, 2026). Per share that is $55.66; our models calculate a fair value of $19.35 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CARR?
Our models span a range for Carrier Global Corp: cautious scenario $11.11, base $19.35, optimistic $30.31 per share (as of Nov 3, 2026, price $55.66). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of CARR?
The PEG ratio of Carrier Global Corp is 1.05 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 3, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Carrier Global Corp (CARR)?
Balance-sheet figures for Carrier Global Corp (as of Nov 3, 2026): return on equity −13.4%, debt of 0.82 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 48/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is CARR from its 52-week high?
Carrier Global Corp trades at $55.66, about 26% below its 52-week high of $75.73 and 12% above the low of $49.79 (as of Nov 4, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $19.35 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Carrier Global Corp?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Johnson Controls International plc, Trane Technologies plc, Compagnie de Saint-Gobain S.A, Geberit AG, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Carrier Global Corp stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 3, 2026: price $55.66, calculated fair value $19.35 (−65%), Quality Score 48/100, from 22 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CARR calculated?
We run Carrier Global Corp through 22 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $19.35, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. Carrier Global Corp itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Carrier Global Corp (CARR)?
The closing price on Nov 4, 2026 was $55.66. Our model-based fair value is $19.35, about 65% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Carrier Global Corp right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($30.31). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (48/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The model range is unusually wide ($11.11 to $30.31). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
Key figures of Carrier Global Corp
How large is the market capitalisation of Carrier Global Corp (CARR)?
The market capitalisation of Carrier Global Corp is $46.7B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Carrier Global Corp (CARR)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Carrier Global Corp is 1.98 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Carrier Global Corp (CARR)?
Earnings per share at Carrier Global Corp are $−2.21. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Carrier Global Corp (CARR)?
The dividend yield of Carrier Global Corp is 1.7% (payout 46.8%, on adjusted earnings, reported 52.9%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Carrier Global Corp (CARR)?
The net margin of Carrier Global Corp is −7.9% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Carrier Global Corp (CARR)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Carrier Global Corp is −13.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Carrier Global Corp (CARR)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Carrier Global Corp is 7.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Carrier Global Corp (CARR)?
The operating margin of Carrier Global Corp is 11.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Carrier Global Corp (CARR)?
Revenue at Carrier Global Corp is growing +12.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +7.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Carrier Global Corp (CARR)?
Earnings per share at Carrier Global Corp are growing −11.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Carrier Global Corp (CARR) carry?
The net debt of Carrier Global Corp is $11.1B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 6.5 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Nov 3, 2026