Johnson Controls International PLC (JCI) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 5, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Johnson Controls International PLC stock $73.99, price $131, that is 43.7% below the price, quality 74 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 24 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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IndustrialsUS · Based in Ireland · ISIN IE00BY7QL619
JCBroad dataNov 6, 2026
Johnson Controls International PLC
JCI · US
Solid,but very expensive
Our calculation puts a fair price 44% below what the stock costs today.
Quality 74/100
Solidly profitable · 11.1% net margin (TTM)
Generates free cash flow
1.2% dividend yield · Well covered
Wide moat68/100
Positive coverage
Broad data
Moderate debt
Mixed vs. peers(6/14)
Insiders sold $18.1M (6M)
Profit last quarter 40% below a year ago.
Fair value $73.99 · Strongly overvalued (−43.7%)
Weak Growth(revenue 5y +1.6 %/yr in USD)
Risks from the AI analysis
🚩AI patent infringement lawsuits🚩Cybersecurity compliance mandates🚩Raw material and refrigerant cost swings
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $42.65 – $158.76 · fair‑value band $45.58 – $104.11 · the $131.46 price screens above the $73.99 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 6, 2026.
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Johnson Controls International plc, together with its subsidiaries, engages in engineering, manufacturing, commissioning, and retrofitting building products and systems in the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Asia-Pacific.
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The company designs, manufactures, sells, installs, and services heating, ventilating, air conditioning, controls, building management, refrigeration, integrated electronic security, integrated fire detection and suppression systems, and digital solutions.
It also provides energy solutions and technical services, including inspection, scheduled maintenance, and repair and replacement of mechanical and control systems, as well as data-driven building solutions.
It sells its products and services to commercial, residential security, institutional, industrial, data center, marine, and governmental customers. Johnson Controls International plc was incorporated in 1885 and is based in Cork, Ireland.
Stock analysis
Johnson Controls International PLC (JCI) currently trades at $131.46, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $73.99, 44% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $84.96 per share, and 0 of the 24 models we run sit above the $131.46 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $21.16, and 24 of the 24 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $45.58 (bear) to $104.11 (bull), the price of $131.46 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 74/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Johnson Controls International PLC reported revenue of $25.7B in FY2026 versus $20.6B in FY2022, a compound +5.6%/yr. Reported net income was $2.9B in FY2026, compounding +16.8%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap $79.6B Large · P/E ratio 27.9 · P/S ratio 3.10 · EPS (TTM) $4.72 · Dividend yield 1.2% · Net margin 11.1% · Return on equity 21.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 6.6%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 68 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 17% below its 52-week high and 20% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −27% fair-value upside, at −44%, JCI screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$45.58Fair Value $73.99Bull$104.11
Price $131.46 · Downside -43.7%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 1 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.3248 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, 4 officers or directors sold shares worth $18.1M and none bought.
SaleJuergen TinggrenDirector4,000 shares at $159.19$636,760Oct 28, 2026
SalePierre E CohadeDirector3,300 shares at $147.79$487,707Aug 19, 2026
SaleLei Zhang SchlitzVP & Pres, GP & Solutions3× since Nov 21, 2025: 144,257 shares, avg. $136.78$19.7MAug 4, 2026
SaleTodd M GrabowskiVP and President, Americas3× since Feb 6, 2026: 12,124 shares, avg. $140.31$1.7MJun 9, 2026
SaleDaniel C McConeghyVP Chief Accounting & Tax Ofcr3,600 shares at $142.56$513,216Feb 23, 2026
BuyMark VergnanoDirector7,665 shares at $131.94$1.0MFeb 5, 2026
SaleJohn DonofrioExec VP & General Counsel21,595 shares at $116.00$2.5MDec 10, 2025
Plus 5 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Revenue growth 1 year
+8.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.6%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +2.1% a year
Revenue growth 41 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.7%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+20.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+19.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.2%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.15.6% vs 7.1%, picking up
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.12% → 14%
2026 sits 71% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2021 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+15.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+7.8%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +13.0% a year for the price and +5.3% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (100 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
AI conclusion: Scale in building systems and thermal management expansion provide moderate moat potential, yet this is offset by average differentiation and margin distortions from one-off gains.
Main risk: Patent lawsuits such as the one filed by Alpha Modus could force licensing fees or redesigns of AI analytics features in OpenBlue and related systems, raising costs or limiting product offerings.
Bull case: By integrating acquired liquid-cooling technologies and expanding its data-center reference architectures, Johnson Controls could strengthen differentiation in high-density thermal management and convert AI-driven demand into recurring service revenue.
Bear case: If patent disputes escalate or cybersecurity mandates intensify while commodity costs spike, the company could face prolonged margin pressure and slower adoption of its connected systems amid integration challenges from recent acquisitions.
Johnson Controls is doubling down on thermal management solutions for data centers and other mission-critical facilities, expanding from its traditional chillers into liquid cooling units, cold plates and modular setups. This move taps new demand in AI infrastructure while the company pursues a multiyear restructuring of its manufacturing footprint. Will the shift mainly enlarge the addressable market or gradually reduce reliance on slower-growing building products segments?
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Building Products & Equipment · 255 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score74 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−43.7% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)21.7% · Top 25%
Return on assets7.1% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)11.1% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)17.2% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)10.4% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)1.2% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.63× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Building Products & Equipment median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)27.9× · Pricier than median
P/B5.85× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
P/S (12 months)3.10× · Priciest 25%
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)24.1× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA18.8× · Priciest 25%
PEG1.79× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 16
FUTURE (revenue growth)52· sector 25
PAST (return on equity)87· sector 25
HEALTH (low debt)68· sector 95
DIVIDEND (yield)24· sector 44
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Johnson Controls International PLC Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/JCI
Frequently asked questions
Is Johnson Controls International PLC (JCI) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $73.99 versus a price of $131.46, about 44% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of JCI?
Our model-based fair value for Johnson Controls International PLC is $73.99 (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $131.46.
What is the quality score of JCI?
Johnson Controls International PLC has a Quality Score of 74/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Johnson Controls International PLC (JCI)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $73.99 (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $45.58, optimistic scenario $104.11. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Johnson Controls International PLC stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $73.99, about 44% lower versus a price of $131.46 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $45.58, optimistic scenario $104.11. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Johnson Controls International PLC (JCI)?
Johnson Controls International PLC reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $25.7B (latest available figure, as of Nov 6, 2026).
Does Johnson Controls International PLC pay a dividend?
Johnson Controls International PLC currently shows a dividend yield of 1.22% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 6, 2026).
What growth is priced into Johnson Controls International PLC (JCI)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Johnson Controls International PLC would have to grow free cash flow by +15.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.9 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +1.6 % per year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of JCI use?
Our models discount Johnson Controls International PLC at 9.9 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 1.28, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Johnson Controls International PLC that is +15.7 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.9 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Johnson Controls International PLC (JCI) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Johnson Controls International PLC grew +1.6 % a year. The price currently implies +15.7 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Johnson Controls International PLC (JCI) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.9 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Johnson Controls International PLC (+15.7 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Johnson Controls International PLC (JCI)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 4.11 %: that much free cash flow Johnson Controls International PLC produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.9 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Johnson Controls International PLC (JCI)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Johnson Controls International PLC it is $73.99 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of $131.46. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Johnson Controls International PLC stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 6, 2026, JCI trades above its calculated fair value: price $131.46, fair value $73.99, a gap of about −44% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of JCI?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($131.46); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($73.99). For Johnson Controls International PLC the two are $57.47 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Johnson Controls International PLC worth?
The market values Johnson Controls International PLC at about $79.6B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is $131.46; our models calculate a fair value of $73.99 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about JCI?
Our models span a range for Johnson Controls International PLC: cautious scenario $45.58, base $73.99, optimistic $104.11 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price $131.46). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of JCI?
Johnson Controls International PLC trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 27.9 (as of Nov 6, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $73.99 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2017 to 2026), reported earnings: 25.9. Other multiples: PEG 1.8, P/B 5.9, P/S 3.1, EV/EBITDA 18.8.
What is the PEG ratio of JCI?
The PEG ratio of Johnson Controls International PLC is 1.79 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 6, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Johnson Controls International PLC (JCI)?
Balance-sheet figures for Johnson Controls International PLC (as of Nov 6, 2026): return on equity 21.7%, debt of 0.63 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 74/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is JCI from its 52-week high?
Johnson Controls International PLC trades at $131.46, about 17% below its 52-week high of $158.76 and 20% above the low of $109.90 (as of Nov 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $73.99 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Johnson Controls International PLC?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Trane Technologies plc, Carrier Global Corporation, Compagnie de Saint-Gobain S.A, Geberit AG, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Johnson Controls International PLC stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price $131.46, calculated fair value $73.99 (−44%), Quality Score 74/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of JCI calculated?
We run Johnson Controls International PLC through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $73.99, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. Johnson Controls International PLC itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Johnson Controls International PLC (JCI)?
The closing price on Nov 5, 2026 was $131.46. Our model-based fair value is $73.99, about 44% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Johnson Controls International PLC right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($104.11). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (74/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range ($45.58 to $104.11) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Johnson Controls International PLC (JCI) come from?
Earnings per share at Johnson Controls International PLC grew +6.3 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −3.2 %, EBIT margin +4.5 %, tax rate +2.7 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +2.3 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Johnson Controls International PLC
How large is the market capitalisation of Johnson Controls International PLC (JCI)?
The market capitalisation of Johnson Controls International PLC is $79.6B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Johnson Controls International PLC (JCI)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Johnson Controls International PLC is 3.10 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Johnson Controls International PLC (JCI)?
Earnings per share at Johnson Controls International PLC are $4.72 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 27.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Johnson Controls International PLC (JCI)?
The dividend yield of Johnson Controls International PLC is 1.2% (payout 33.9%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Johnson Controls International PLC (JCI)?
The net margin of Johnson Controls International PLC is 11.1% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Johnson Controls International PLC (JCI)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Johnson Controls International PLC is 21.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Johnson Controls International PLC (JCI)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Johnson Controls International PLC is 6.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Johnson Controls International PLC (JCI)?
The operating margin of Johnson Controls International PLC is 17.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Johnson Controls International PLC (JCI)?
Revenue at Johnson Controls International PLC is growing +10.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg +4.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Johnson Controls International PLC (JCI)?
Earnings per share at Johnson Controls International PLC are growing −40.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Johnson Controls International PLC (JCI) carry?
The net debt of Johnson Controls International PLC is $7.6B (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 2.3 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 6, 2026