Madison Air Solutions Corporation (MAIR) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 28, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Madison Air Solutions Corporation stock $20.32, price $23.88, upside -14.9%, quality 57 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Madison Air Solutions Corporation manufactures and sells indoor air quality products and solutions in the United States and internationally.
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It offers heating, air filtration and purification, air movement, and air conditioning solutions under the Reznor, AprilAire, Big Ass Fans, Nortek Air Solutions and, Roberts-Gordon. The company also provides related services, such as custom design, installation, repair, and maintenance.
The company distributes through various customer bases and sales channels, including direct sales to national, regional and local companies; manufacturers' sales representatives; distributors; and retail partners.
It serves healthcare and life sciences, advanced manufacturing, data centers, logistics, and education industries, as well as residential markets. Madison Air Solutions Corporation was founded in 2017 and is based in Chicago, Illinois.
Madison Air Solutions Corporation is a subsidiary of Madison Industries Holdings LLC.
Stock analysis
Madison Air Solutions Corporation (MAIR) currently trades at $23.88, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $20.32, 14.9% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $10.16 per share, and 0 of the 19 models we run sit above the $23.88 price.
Bear case: the Growth Earnings group reads lowest at $2.20, and 19 of the 19 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $7.72 (bear) to $20.32 (bull), the price of $23.88 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 57/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Madison Air Solutions Corporation reported revenue of $3.5B in FY2025 versus $2.6B in FY2023, a compound +17.3%/yr. Reported net income was $30.8M in FY2025, compounding −27.3%/yr from FY2023.
Key figures
Market cap $11.3B Large · P/E ratio 47.3 · P/S ratio 0.41 · EPS (TTM) $0.4900 · Net margin 0.9% · Return on equity 19.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 7.2% · Operating margin 19.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 34 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −28% fair-value upside, at −15%, MAIR screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely ($1.00 to $19.11). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bear$7.72Fair Value $20.32Bull$20.32
Price $23.88 · Upside -14.9%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.4054 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.95/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: only 3 usable fiscal years, at least 4 required
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+20.2%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+7.1%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +17.4% a year for the price and +4.6% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (38 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.
AI conclusion: Organic growth from data center cooling and mission-critical applications forms the main strength, while high leverage together with negative equity limits durable advantage in building products.
Main risk: The acquisition of the German fan maker brings integration challenges and added balance-sheet strain that would hit margins and cash flows already under pressure from existing leverage.
Madison Air has built solid organic growth and a record backlog through exposure to data center cooling and other mission-critical applications. The pending acquisition of the German fan maker ebm-papst adds scale, European presence and technology but relies on a large equity raise plus debt that lifts leverage. Our models currently see the shares as overvalued. Will the deal strengthen the durable growth algorithm or introduce integration and balance-sheet risks that outweigh the benefits?
Compare Madison Air Solutions Corporation with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Building Products & Equipment · 257 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/10 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score57 · Above median
Fair Value upside−14.9% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)Negative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
Return on assets0.7% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)7.0% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)19.8% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)20.9% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equityNegative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
Valuation Multiplesvs Building Products & Equipment median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)47.3× · Priciest 25%
P/BNegative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
P/S (12 months)5.70× · Priciest 25%
Price / free cash flow48.6× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA36.4× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)13· sector 15
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 20
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 24
HEALTH (low debt)0· sector 95
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 44
PAST 0: with negative equity (buybacks among others) return on equity is not meaningfully computable.
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Madison Air Solutions Corporation Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/MAIR
Frequently asked questions
Is Madison Air Solutions Corporation (MAIR) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 28, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $20.32 versus a price of $23.88, about −15% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of MAIR?
Our model-based fair value for Madison Air Solutions Corporation is $20.32 (as of Oct 28, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $23.88.
What is the quality score of MAIR?
Madison Air Solutions Corporation has a Quality Score of 57/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Madison Air Solutions Corporation (MAIR)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $20.32 (as of Oct 28, 2026) from 21 valuation models. Cautious scenario $7.72, optimistic scenario $20.32. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Madison Air Solutions Corporation stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $20.32, about −15% upside versus a price of $23.88 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $7.72, optimistic scenario $20.32. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Madison Air Solutions Corporation (MAIR)?
Madison Air Solutions Corporation reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $3.7B (latest available figure, as of Oct 28, 2026).
What growth is priced into Madison Air Solutions Corporation (MAIR)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Madison Air Solutions Corporation would have to grow free cash flow by +20.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 2 years revenue grew +17.3 % per year. As of Oct 28, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of MAIR use?
Our models discount Madison Air Solutions Corporation at 9.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Madison Air Solutions Corporation that is +20.2 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Madison Air Solutions Corporation (MAIR) delivered so far?
Over the past 2 years revenue at Madison Air Solutions Corporation grew +17.3 % a year. The price currently implies +20.2 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Madison Air Solutions Corporation (MAIR) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Madison Air Solutions Corporation (+20.2 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Madison Air Solutions Corporation (MAIR)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.89 %: that much free cash flow Madison Air Solutions Corporation produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Madison Air Solutions Corporation (MAIR)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Madison Air Solutions Corporation it is $20.32 per share (as of Oct 28, 2026), against a price of $23.88. It is the blended result of 21 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Madison Air Solutions Corporation stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 28, 2026, MAIR trades above its calculated fair value: price $23.88, fair value $20.32, a gap of about −15% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of MAIR?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($23.88); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($20.32). For Madison Air Solutions Corporation the two are $3.56 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Madison Air Solutions Corporation worth?
The market values Madison Air Solutions Corporation at about $11.3B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 28, 2026). Per share that is $23.88; our models calculate a fair value of $20.32 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about MAIR?
Our models span a range for Madison Air Solutions Corporation: cautious scenario $7.72, base $20.32, optimistic $20.32 per share (as of Oct 28, 2026, price $23.88). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of MAIR?
Madison Air Solutions Corporation trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 47.3 (as of Oct 28, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $20.32 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/S 5.7, EV/EBITDA 36.4.
How solid is the balance sheet of Madison Air Solutions Corporation (MAIR)?
Balance-sheet figures for Madison Air Solutions Corporation (as of Oct 28, 2026): negative equity, so no return on equity and no debt-to-equity ratio. They feed the Quality Score of 57/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
Which stocks are comparable to Madison Air Solutions Corporation?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Trane Technologies plc, Johnson Controls International plc, Carrier Global Corporation, Compagnie de Saint-Gobain S.A, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Madison Air Solutions Corporation stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 28, 2026: price $23.88, calculated fair value $20.32 (−15%), Quality Score 57/100, from 21 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of MAIR calculated?
We run Madison Air Solutions Corporation through 21 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $20.32, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.4 % above its aggregate fair value. Madison Air Solutions Corporation itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Madison Air Solutions Corporation (MAIR)?
The closing price on Oct 28, 2026 was $23.88. Our model-based fair value is $20.32, about −15% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Madison Air Solutions Corporation right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($20.32). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The model range is unusually wide ($7.72 to $20.32). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (57/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of Madison Air Solutions Corporation
How large is the market capitalisation of Madison Air Solutions Corporation (MAIR)?
The market capitalisation of Madison Air Solutions Corporation is $11.3B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Madison Air Solutions Corporation (MAIR)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Madison Air Solutions Corporation is 0.41 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Madison Air Solutions Corporation (MAIR)?
Earnings per share at Madison Air Solutions Corporation are $0.4900 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 47.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Madison Air Solutions Corporation (MAIR)?
The net margin of Madison Air Solutions Corporation is 0.9% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Madison Air Solutions Corporation (MAIR)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Madison Air Solutions Corporation is 19.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Madison Air Solutions Corporation (MAIR)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Madison Air Solutions Corporation is 7.2% (avg 3y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Madison Air Solutions Corporation (MAIR)?
The operating margin of Madison Air Solutions Corporation is 19.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Madison Air Solutions Corporation (MAIR)?
Revenue at Madison Air Solutions Corporation is growing +20.9% versus a year earlier. How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Madison Air Solutions Corporation (MAIR)?
Earnings per share at Madison Air Solutions Corporation are growing +112% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Madison Air Solutions Corporation (MAIR) carry?
The net debt of Madison Air Solutions Corporation is $5.4B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 12.4 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Oct 28, 2026