Carrier Global Corporation (CARR) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · US · Market cap $57.0B
Carrier Global Corporation
CARR · US
Fair value as of: Jul 14, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 24 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 14, 2026, revised from $17.22 to $17.35 (+0.8%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price −6.9% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 73% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($28.83). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (47/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range ($14.64 to $28.83) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 14, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $32.27 – $80.72 · fair‑value band $14.64 – $28.83 · the $63.96 price screens above the $17.35 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 14, 2026.
Analysis
Carrier Global Corporation (CARR) currently trades at $63.96, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $17.35, implying the stock looks roughly 72.9% overvalued today. We read business quality at 47/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Carrier Global Corporation generated revenue of $21.9B at a net margin of 6.0%. Revenue grew 2.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 9.9%. Net debt stands at $11.1B. Fundamentals as of Jul 14, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $14.64 (bear case) to $28.83 (bull case); at $63.96, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat. The share trades about 20% below its 52-week high and 28% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -33% fair-value upside, at -73%, CARR screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples ($30.37) versus Earnings-Based ($10.49). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 14, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 50 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 43
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Carrier Global Corporation provides intelligent climate and energy solutions in the United States, Europe, the Asia Pacific, and internationally. It operates through four segments: Climate Solutions Americas; Climate Solutions Europe; Climate Solutions Asia Pacific, Middle East & Africa; and Climate Solutions Transportation.
Full company description
Carrier Global Corporation provides intelligent climate and energy solutions in the United States, Europe, the Asia Pacific, and internationally. It operates through four segments: Climate Solutions Americas; Climate Solutions Europe; Climate Solutions Asia Pacific, Middle East & Africa; and Climate Solutions Transportation. The company provides air conditioners, heating systems, heat pumps, home and building energy management systems, automation systems, aftermarket components, and repair and maintenance and rental services, as well as modernization and upgrades to meet the heating, cooling, and ventilation needs of residential and commercial customers. It also offers transport refrigeration and monitoring products, services, and digital solutions for trucks, trailers, shipping containers, and intermodal and rail applications. The company offers its products under the Carrier, Viessmann, Toshiba, Automated Logic, Bryant, CIAT, Day & Night, Heil, NORESCO, Carrier Transicold, and Sensitech brands. The company was incorporated in 2019 and is headquartered in Palm Beach Gardens, Florida.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Carrier Global Corporation reported revenue of $21.7B in FY2025 versus $20.6B in FY2021, a compound +1.3%/yr. Reported net income was $1.5B in FY2025, compounding −2.8%/yr from FY2021.
CARR screens 73% overvalued. Compare with Trane Technologies plc →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Carrier Completes Sale of NORESCO to OPTERRA Energy Services
- Carrier Growth Outlook Builds on HVAC Orders and Data Center Demand
Peer Group
Building Products & Equipment · 245 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Building Products & Equipment median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 42/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Building Products & Equipment stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 14, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trane Technologies plc TT | $469.98 | $212.34 | -55% |
| Johnson Controls International plc JCI | $142.81 | $45.65 | -68% |
| Compagnie de Saint-Gobain S.A SGO | €76.62 | €101.60 | +33% |
| Geberit AG GEBN | CHF 523.20 | CHF 307.66 | -41% |
| Lennox International Inc LII | $543.93 | $363.09 | -33% |
| Kingspan Group KRX | €87.30 | €70.76 | -19% |
| Masco Corporation MAS | $78.04 | $54.36 | -30% |
| PT Impack Pratama Industri Tbk, IMPC | 1,420 IDR | 179.76 IDR | -87% |
| NIBE Industrier AB NIBEB | kr 36.03 | kr 25.37 | -30% |
| Rockwool A/S ROCKA | kr 216.00 | kr 61.77 | -71% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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