CareDx Inc (CDNA) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of CareDx Inc stock $13.95, price $78.56, that is 82.2% below the price, quality 71 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 7 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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CareDx Inc
CDNA · USOur calculation puts a fair price 82% below what the stock costs today.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $4.90 – $88.47 · fair‑value band $8.70 – $23.65 · the $78.56 price screens above the $13.95 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 6, 2026.
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Company profile
CareDx, Inc. provides solutions for improving outcomes for transplant patients and advancing organ health in the United States and internationally.
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The company provides AlloSure Kidney, a donor-derived cell-free DNA (dd-cfDNA) solution for kidney transplant patients; AlloMap Heart, a gene expression profiling solution for heart transplant patients; AlloSure Heart, a dd-cfDNA solution for heart transplant patients; and AlloSure Lung, a dd-cfDNA solution for lung transplant patients.
It also offers HeartCare, which provides information about distinct biological processes, such as immune quiescence, active injury, acute cellular rejection, and antibody mediated rejection; HistoMap Kidney, a solution that identifies allograft rejection and type of rejection in kidney transplant biopsy tissue; and AlloHeme, a monitoring test that predicts relapse in patients with acute myeloid leukemia and myelodysplastic syndromes.
In addition, the company provides QTYPE that enables precision in human leukocyte antigen (HLA) typing; Olerup SSP, which is used to type HLA alleles based on sequence specific primer technology; and Ottr, a transplant patient management software.
Further, it offers AlloSeq Tx, a high-resolution HLA typing solution; AlloSeq cfDNA, a surveillance solution to measure dd-cfDNA in blood; AlloSeq HCT, a solution for chimerism testing for stem cell transplant recipients; Allocell, a solution that monitors the pharmacokinetics of engraftment and persistence of cells for patients who have received allogeneic cell therapy; and XynQAPI, MedActionPlan, CareDx pharmacy, AlloHome, and HLA Data Systems software solutions.
It has a license agreement with Illumina, Inc. for the distribution, development, and commercialization of NGS products and technologies. The company was formerly known as XDx, Inc. and changed its name to CareDx, Inc. in March 2014.
The company was incorporated in 1998 and is headquartered in Brisbane, California.
Stock analysis
CareDx Inc (CDNA) currently trades at $78.56, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $13.95, 82% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of $15.06 per share, and 0 of the 7 models we run sit above the $78.56 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $2.84, and 7 of the 7 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: $8.70 (bear) to $23.65 (bull), the price of $78.56 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 71/100 (solid quality), in the Healthcare sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
CareDx Inc reported revenue of $380M in FY2025 versus $296M in FY2021, a compound +6.4%/yr. Reported net income was −$21.4M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $4.2B Mid · P/E ratio 37.8 · P/S ratio 8.44 · EPS (TTM) $2.08 · Net margin 25.9% · Return on equity 33.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) −12.0% (5-year average) · Operating margin 5.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 56 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 11% below its 52-week high and 423% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at −9% fair-value upside, at −82%, CDNA screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
All 7 models by family
Quality Score breakdown
It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.
Insider trades
In the last 6 months, 7 officers or directors sold shares worth $12.1M and none bought.
- SaleGeorge BickerstaffDirector20,000 shares at $46.29$925,800Aug 5, 2026
- SaleJeffrey Adam NovackSecretary and General Counsel4× since Dec 4, 2025: 17,110 shares, avg. $24.03$411,079Aug 5, 202610b5-1 plan
- SaleChristine CournoyerDirector16,000 shares at $46.94$751,040Aug 4, 202610b5-1 plan
- SaleMichael GoldbergDirector44,700 shares at $47.06$2.1MAug 4, 2026
- SaleJohn Walter Hanna JRPresident and CEO, Director8× since Jan 15, 2026: 242,434 shares, avg. $31.10$7.5MJul 16, 202610b5-1 plan
- SaleHannah ValantineDirector2× since Jun 15, 2026: 40,882 shares, avg. $32.28$1.3MJul 16, 202610b5-1 plan
- SaleArthur A TorresDirector10,570 shares at $20.31$214,650May 15, 2026
Plus 26 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Source: SEC Form 4, as of Nov 6, 2026. All filings at the SEC ↗
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Forecast
CDNA screens overvalued: fair value 82% below the price. Compare with Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc →
Earlier news
- CareDx (CDNA) Surpasses Q3 Earnings and Revenue Estimates
- CareDx (CDNA) After Kidney Week Data Is The Story Already Priced In
- CareDx to Report Q3 Earnings: Transplant Testing Growth in Focus
Compare CareDx Inc with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Diagnostics & Research · 126 stocks
Valuation Multiplesvs Diagnostics & Research median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Context: sector, industry, market
- Is the Health Care sector expensive or cheap?
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- P/S ratio by industry
- EBIT margin by industry
- Stock screener with 62 metrics
- Undervalued stocks: US Stocks
- Valuation of the USA market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Diagnostics & Research stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value | Compare |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WuXi AppTec Co 603259 | ¥147.00 | ¥164.66 | +12% | vs CDNA |
| IQVIA Holdings IQV | $271.83 | $299.01 | +10% | vs CDNA |
| Illumina, Inc ILMN | $213.13 | $228.80 | +7% | vs CDNA |
| Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc TMO | $694.76 | $686.04 | −1% | vs CDNA |
| Danaher Corporation DHR | $230.25 | $209.18 | −9% | vs CDNA |
| IDEXX Laboratories, Inc IDXX | $676.04 | $496.48 | −27% | vs CDNA |
| Mettler-Toledo International Inc MTD | $1,722 | $650.28 | −62% | vs CDNA |
| Agilent Technologies, Inc A | $174.76 | $64.53 | −63% | vs CDNA |
| Lonza Group LONN | CHF 663.40 | CHF 153.50 | −77% | vs CDNA |
| Waters Corporation WAT | $457.60 | $91.26 | −80% | vs CDNA |
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Key figures of CareDx Inc
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