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CareDx, Inc (CDNA) Fair Value & Analysis

Healthcare · US · Market cap $1.3B

Price$25.12
Fair Value$12.78
Upside-49.1%
Quality95/100
Evidence: Medium Range $8.05 – $19.52

Analysis

CareDx, Inc (CDNA) currently trades at $25.12, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $12.78 — implying the stock looks roughly 49.1% overvalued today. We read business quality at 95/100 (high quality), in the Healthcare sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium — the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).

About the company

CareDx, Inc. provides solutions for improving outcomes for transplant patients and advancing organ health in the United States and internationally. The company provides AlloSure Kidney, a donor-derived cell-free DNA (dd-cfDNA) solution for kidney transplant patients; AlloMap Heart, a gene expression profiling solution for heart transplant patients; AlloSure Heart, a dd-cfDNA solution for heart transplant patients; and AlloSure Lung, a dd-cfDNA solution for lung transplant patients. It also offers HeartCare, which provides information about distinct biological processes, such as immune quiescence, active injury, acute cellular rejection, and antibody mediated rejection; HistoMap Kidney, a solution that identifies allograft rejection and type of rejection in kidney transplant biopsy tissue; and AlloHeme, a monitoring test that predicts relapse in patients with acute myeloid leukemia and myelodysplastic syndromes. In addition, the company provides QTYPE that enables precision in human …

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How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data — nothing guessed.

Educational research only · not financial advice · no buy/sell recommendation. Model-based estimates are not certainties; their reliability depends on data quality and assumptions.