Coty Inc (COTY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Coty Inc stock $2.75, price $4.05, that is 32.1% below the price, quality 45 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 9 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 8, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $1.85 – $13.26 · fair‑value band $1.09 – $4.64 · the $4.05 price screens above the $2.75 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 8, 2026.
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Coty Inc., together with its subsidiaries, manufactures, markets, distributes, and sells branded beauty products worldwide. It operates through two segments: the Prestige and Consumer Beauty. The company provides fragrance, color cosmetics, and skin and body care products.
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It offers prestige products through prestige retailers, including perfumeries, department stores, e-retailers, direct-to-consumer websites, and duty-free shops under the Burberry, Calvin Klein, Chloe, Davidoff, Escada, Etro, Gucci, Hugo Boss, Infiniment Coty Paris, Jil Sander, Joop!, Kylie Cosmetics by Kylie Jenner, Lancaster, Marc Jacobs, Orveda, philosophy, and Tiffany & Co. brands.
The company provides beauty products through hypermarkets, supermarkets, drug stores, pharmacies, mid-tier department stores, traditional food and drug retailers, and e-commerce retailers under the Adidas, Beckham, Bozzano, Bourjois, Bruno Banani, CoverGirl, Jovan, LeGer by Lena Gercke, Max Factor, Mexx, Monange, Nautica, Paixao, Rimmel, Risque, Vera Wang, and Sally Hansen brands.
It also sells its products through third-party distributors. The company was founded in 1904 and is headquartered in New York, New York. Coty Inc. is a subsidiary of JAB Beauty B.V.
Stock analysis
Coty Inc (COTY) currently trades at $4.05, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $2.75, 32% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of $3.12 per share, and 0 of the 9 models we run sit above the $4.05 price.
Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at $1.83, and 9 of the 9 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $1.09 (bear) to $4.64 (bull), the price of $4.05 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 45/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Coty Inc reported revenue of $5.8B in FY2026 versus $5.3B in FY2022, a compound +2.3%/yr. Reported net income was −$605M in FY2026.
Key figures
Market cap $3.6B Mid · P/S ratio 0.53 · EPS (TTM) $−0.7000 · Dividend yield 0.4% · Net margin −10.4% · Return on equity −16.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.4% (5-year average) · Operating margin −2.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 17 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades at its 52-week high and 119% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at −26% fair-value upside, at −32%, COTY screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$1.09Fair Value $2.75Bull$4.64
Price $4.05 · Downside -32.1%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, no officer or director bought or sold shares on the open market.
BuyGordon von BrettenPresident - Consumer Beauty, Director83,000 shares at $2.41$200,030Mar 6, 2026
BuyLaurent MercierChief Financial Officer5,000 shares at $2.65$13,250Feb 10, 2026
Plus 3 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.34/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−1.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.6%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +2.9% a year
Revenue growth 16 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.2%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−1.0% (2021) → −1.4% (2026)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2026 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+7.2%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
−5.5%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +4.7% a year for the price and −7.7% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (99 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
AI conclusion: Solid gross margins stand out as the main strength, yet sustained net losses and high leverage limit any durable advantage.
Main risk: The early Gucci license exit threatens revenue and margins in the prestige segment amid the ongoing consumer beauty overhaul.
Coty is launching community initiatives like the Fragrance Club and rolling out new products as it works through a strategic review of consumer beauty and an early Gucci license exit. Fiscal 2027 is framed as a transition year with initial revenue declines expected alongside continued cost discipline and debt reduction. Will the prestige segment gains outweigh the margin and volume pressures in the rest of the business, or will the overhaul prolong the softness?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Household & Personal Products · 230 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/12 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score45 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−32.1% · Below median
Profitability
Return on assets−5.9% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months)−10.4% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months)−2.4% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)1.3% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)0.4% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.97× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Household & Personal Products median · lower = cheaper
P/B1.14× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
P/S (12 months)0.61× · Cheapest 25%
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)10.2× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA8.1× · Cheaper than median
PEG0.18× · Cheapest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 36
FUTURE (revenue growth)7· sector 20
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 31
HEALTH (low debt)52· sector 98
DIVIDEND (yield)9· sector 53
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Coty Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/COTY
Frequently asked questions
Is Coty Inc (COTY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 8, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $2.75 versus a price of $4.05, about 32% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of COTY?
Our model-based fair value for Coty Inc is $2.75 (as of Nov 8, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $4.05.
What is the quality score of COTY?
Coty Inc has a Quality Score of 45/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Coty Inc (COTY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $2.75 (as of Nov 8, 2026) from 9 valuation models. Cautious scenario $1.09, optimistic scenario $4.64. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Coty Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $2.75, about 32% lower versus a price of $4.05 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $1.09, optimistic scenario $4.64. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Coty Inc (COTY)?
Coty Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $5.8B (latest available figure, as of Nov 8, 2026).
Does Coty Inc pay a dividend?
Coty Inc currently shows a dividend yield of 0.43% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 8, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Coty Inc (COTY)?
Coty Inc has a dividend yield of 0.4%.
What growth is priced into Coty Inc (COTY)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Coty Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +7.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +4.6 % per year. As of Nov 8, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of COTY use?
Our models discount Coty Inc at 9.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.85, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Coty Inc that is +7.2 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (9.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Coty Inc (COTY) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Coty Inc grew +4.6 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +7.2 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Coty Inc (COTY) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Coty Inc (+7.2 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Coty Inc (COTY)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 9.77 %: that much free cash flow Coty Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Coty Inc (COTY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Coty Inc it is $2.75 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026), against a price of $4.05. It is the blended result of 9 valuation models in 3 families (DCF Models, Multiples, Growth DCF).
Is Coty Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 8, 2026, COTY trades above its calculated fair value: price $4.05, fair value $2.75, a gap of about −32% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of COTY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($4.05); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($2.75). For Coty Inc the two are $1.30 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Coty Inc worth?
The market values Coty Inc at about $3.6B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 8, 2026). Per share that is $4.05; our models calculate a fair value of $2.75 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about COTY?
Our models span a range for Coty Inc: cautious scenario $1.09, base $2.75, optimistic $4.64 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026, price $4.05). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of COTY?
The PEG ratio of Coty Inc is 0.18 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 8, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Coty Inc (COTY)?
Balance-sheet figures for Coty Inc (as of Nov 8, 2026): return on equity −16.1%, debt of 0.97 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 45/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is COTY from its 52-week high?
Coty Inc trades at $4.05, at its 52-week high of $4.05 and 119% above the low of $1.85 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $2.75 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Coty Inc?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Colgate-Palmolive Company, Hindustan Unilever Limited, The Estée Lauder Companies Inc, Henkel AG, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Coty Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 8, 2026: price $4.05, calculated fair value $2.75 (−32%), Quality Score 45/100, from 9 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of COTY calculated?
We run Coty Inc through 9 models from 3 families: DCF Models, Multiples, Growth DCF. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $2.75 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. Coty Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Coty Inc (COTY)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $4.05. Our model-based fair value is $2.75, about 32% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Coty Inc right now?
Weak quality (45/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The model range is unusually wide ($1.09 to $4.64). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
Key figures of Coty Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Coty Inc (COTY)?
The market capitalisation of Coty Inc is $3.6B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Coty Inc (COTY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Coty Inc is 0.53 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Coty Inc (COTY)?
Earnings per share at Coty Inc are $−0.7000. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Coty Inc (COTY)?
The dividend yield of Coty Inc is 0.4%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Coty Inc (COTY)?
The net margin of Coty Inc is −10.4% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Coty Inc (COTY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Coty Inc is −16.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Coty Inc (COTY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Coty Inc is 2.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Coty Inc (COTY)?
The operating margin of Coty Inc is −2.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Coty Inc (COTY)?
Revenue at Coty Inc is growing +1.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +1.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Coty Inc (COTY)?
Earnings per share at Coty Inc are growing −22.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Coty Inc (COTY) carry?
The net debt of Coty Inc is $3.3B (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 9.4 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Some data
Nov 8, 2026