Estee Lauder Companies Inc (EL) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what Estee Lauder Companies Inc is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 17, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $49.08 – $346.04 · fair‑value band $9.00 – $36.06 · the $93.43 price screens above the $21.04 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 17, 2026.
The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. manufactures, markets, and sells skin care, makeup, fragrance, and hair care products worldwide.
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The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. manufactures, markets, and sells skin care, makeup, fragrance, and hair care products worldwide. The company offers skin care products, including moisturizers, serums, cleansers, toners, eye care, body care, exfoliators, acne care and oil correctors, facial masks, and sun care products; and makeup products, such as foundations, powders, concealers and setting sprays, lipsticks, lip liners and lip glosses, mascaras, and eyeshadows and eyeliners, as well as compacts, brushes, and other makeup tools. It also provides fragrance products in various forms comprising parfum, eau de parfum, eau de toilette, eau de cologne, and body spray, as well as lotions, creams, powders, candles and soaps; and hair care products, including shampoos, conditioners, styling products, treatment, finishing sprays, and hair colour products, as well as sells ancillary products and services. The company offers its products under the La Mer, Jo Malone London, TOM FORD, AERIN Beauty, Le Labo, Editions de Parfums Frédéric Malle, KILIAN PARIS, BALMAIN Beauty, Estée Lauder, Clinique, M·A·C, The Ordinary, Aveda, Bobbi Brown Cosmetics, Too Faced, Dr.Jart+, Bumble and bumble, Editions de Parfums Frédéric Malle, Smashbox, Darphin Paris, Lab Series, NIOD, Aramis, and GLAMGLOW brands. It sells its products through department stores, duty-free retailers, specialty multi retailers, online pure players, upscale perfumeries and pharmacies, and top-tier salons and spas, as well as direct-to-consumer businesses across freestanding stores, and brand websites and third-party online platforms. The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. was founded in 1946 and is headquartered in New York, New York.
Stock analysis
Estee Lauder Companies Inc (EL) currently trades at $93.43, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $21.04, implying the stock looks roughly 344.0% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $33.03 per share, and 0 of the 15 models we run sit above the $93.43 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $7.19, and 15 of the 15 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $9.00 (bear) to $36.06 (bull), the price of $93.43 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 47/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Weak Growth: Growth has flattened: the last year, three and five years all grew more slowly than the long-term average.
Estee Lauder Companies Inc reported revenue of $14.3B in FY2025 versus $16.2B in FY2021, a compound −3.1%/yr. Reported net income was −$1.1B in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $33.6B · P/S ratio 2.02 · EPS (TTM) $−0.7000 · Dividend yield 1.5% · Net margin −7.9% · Return on equity −6.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 8.6% · Operating margin 14.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 47 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 23% below its 52-week high and 42% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at −24% fair-value upside, at −77%, EL screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $9.00Fair Value $21.04Bull $36.06
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.23/100
Growth has flattened: the last year, three and five years all grew more slowly than the long-term average.
Revenue growth 1 year
−8.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−7.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.0%
Revenue growth 30 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.5%
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’21
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
15.6% (2019) → 6.2% (2024)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+29.5%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+4.0%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (98 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.
Compare Estee Lauder Companies Inc with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Household & Personal Products · 249 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/13 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score47 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−71% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets5% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)−2% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)15% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth5% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)1.5% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.89× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Household & Personal Products median · lower = cheaper
P/B7.75× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM)2.02× · Pricier than median
P/FCF44.7× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA14.6× · Pricier than median
PEG1.42× · Cheaper than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 33
FUTURE (revenue growth)23· sector 9
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 27
HEALTH (low debt)5· sector 98
DIVIDEND (yield)30· sector 55
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Estee Lauder Companies Inc (EL) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 17, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $21.04 versus a price of $93.43, about −77% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of EL?
Our model-based fair value for Estee Lauder Companies Inc is $21.04 (as of Sep 17, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $93.43.
What is the quality score of EL?
Estee Lauder Companies Inc has a Quality Score of 47/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Estee Lauder Companies Inc (EL)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $21.04 (as of Sep 17, 2026) from 15 valuation models. Cautious scenario $9.00, optimistic scenario $36.06. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Estee Lauder Companies Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $21.04, about −77% upside versus a price of $93.43 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $9.00, optimistic scenario $36.06. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Estee Lauder Companies Inc (EL)?
Estee Lauder Companies Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $14.8B (latest available figure, as of Sep 17, 2026).
Does Estee Lauder Companies Inc pay a dividend?
Estee Lauder Companies Inc currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.50% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 17, 2026).
What growth is priced into Estee Lauder Companies Inc (EL)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Estee Lauder Companies Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +29.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew 0.0 % per year. As of Sep 17, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of EL use?
Our models discount Estee Lauder Companies Inc at 9.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 1.21, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Estee Lauder Companies Inc that is +29.5 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Estee Lauder Companies Inc (EL) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Estee Lauder Companies Inc grew 0.0 % a year. The price currently implies +29.5 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Estee Lauder Companies Inc (EL) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.9 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Estee Lauder Companies Inc (+29.5 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Estee Lauder Companies Inc (EL)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 1.99 %: that much free cash flow Estee Lauder Companies Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Estee Lauder Companies Inc (EL)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Estee Lauder Companies Inc it is $21.04 per share (as of Sep 17, 2026), against a price of $93.43. It is the blended result of 15 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Estee Lauder Companies Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 17, 2026, EL trades above its calculated fair value: price $93.43, fair value $21.04, a gap of about −77% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of EL?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($93.43); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($21.04). For Estee Lauder Companies Inc the two are $72.39 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Estee Lauder Companies Inc worth?
The market values Estee Lauder Companies Inc at about $33.6B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 17, 2026). Per share that is $93.43; our models calculate a fair value of $21.04 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about EL?
Our models span a range for Estee Lauder Companies Inc: cautious scenario $9.00, base $21.04, optimistic $36.06 per share (as of Sep 17, 2026, price $93.43). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of EL?
The PEG ratio of Estee Lauder Companies Inc is 1.42 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 17, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Estee Lauder Companies Inc (EL)?
Balance-sheet figures for Estee Lauder Companies Inc (as of Sep 17, 2026): return on equity −6.0%, debt of 1.89 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 47/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is EL from its 52-week high?
Estee Lauder Companies Inc trades at $93.43, about 23% below its 52-week high of $120.79 and 42% above the low of $65.97 (as of Sep 17, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $21.04 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Estee Lauder Companies Inc?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value L'Oréal S.A, Unilever PLC, Colgate-Palmolive Company, 500696, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Estee Lauder Companies Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 17, 2026: price $93.43, calculated fair value $21.04 (−77%), Quality Score 47/100, from 15 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of EL calculated?
We run Estee Lauder Companies Inc through 15 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $21.04, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 16.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Estee Lauder Companies Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Estee Lauder Companies Inc (EL)?
The closing price on Sep 18, 2026 was $93.43. Our model-based fair value is $21.04, about −77% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Estee Lauder Companies Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($36.06). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The model range is unusually wide ($9.00 to $36.06). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (47/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Where does the earnings growth of Estee Lauder Companies Inc (EL) come from?
Earnings per share at Estee Lauder Companies Inc grew −4.8 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +5.1 %, EBIT margin −7.5 %, tax rate −0.8 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −1.3 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Estee Lauder Companies Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Estee Lauder Companies Inc (EL)?
The market capitalisation of Estee Lauder Companies Inc is $33.6B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Estee Lauder Companies Inc (EL)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Estee Lauder Companies Inc is 2.02 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Estee Lauder Companies Inc (EL)?
Earnings per share at Estee Lauder Companies Inc are $−0.7000. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Estee Lauder Companies Inc (EL)?
The dividend yield of Estee Lauder Companies Inc is 1.5%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Estee Lauder Companies Inc (EL)?
The net margin of Estee Lauder Companies Inc is −7.9% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Estee Lauder Companies Inc (EL)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Estee Lauder Companies Inc is −6.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Estee Lauder Companies Inc (EL)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Estee Lauder Companies Inc is 8.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Estee Lauder Companies Inc (EL)?
The operating margin of Estee Lauder Companies Inc is 14.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Estee Lauder Companies Inc (EL)?
Revenue at Estee Lauder Companies Inc is growing +4.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg −7.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Estee Lauder Companies Inc (EL)?
Earnings per share at Estee Lauder Companies Inc are growing −45.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Estee Lauder Companies Inc (EL) carry?
The net debt of Estee Lauder Companies Inc is $6.5B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 9.7 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Some data
Sep 17, 2026