Covivio Hotels (COVH) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Covivio Hotels stock €21.11, price €20.40, upside +3.5%, quality 56 out of 100. Rating: fairly valued. Calculated from audited financials with 16 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 7, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €10.19 – €25.52 · fair‑value band €12.79 – €27.57 · the €20.40 price screens below the €21.11 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 7, 2026.
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Covivio Hotels specializes in owning operating properties in the hotel sector. As a listed real estate investment Société d'Investissements Immobiliers Cotée (SIIC), real estate partner of major players in holds assets worth 6.6 billion euros (as of the end of 2025).
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Covivio Hotels is rated BBB+ / Stable outlook by Standard and Poor's. Covivio Hotels incorporated in 1900 in France.
Stock analysis
Covivio Hotels (COVH) currently trades at €20.40, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €21.11, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 3.4%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of €34.28 per share, and 9 of the 16 models we run sit above the €20.40 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at €4.40, and 7 of the 16 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: €12.79 (bear) to €27.57 (bull), the price of €20.40 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 56/100 (solid quality), in the Real Estate sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Covivio Hotels reported revenue of €716M in FY2025 versus €290M in FY2021, a compound +25.3%/yr. Reported net income was €308M in FY2025, compounding +57.3%/yr from FY2021. FY2021 was a trough year, so the rate overstates the trend.
Key figures
Market cap €3.2B Mid · P/E ratio 9.5 · P/S ratio 8.44 · EPS (TTM) €2.14 · Dividend yield 7.4% · Net margin 87.5% · Return on equity 9.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.3% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 66 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 14% below its 52-week high and 3% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at −23% fair-value upside, at 3%, COVH screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear€12.79Fair Value €21.11Bull€27.57
Price €20.40 · Upside +3.5%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (€0.5471 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.95/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+22.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+15.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+24.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +13.0% a year
Revenue growth 21 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+39.5%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+12.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+5.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)7.4%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.5.0% vs 2.3%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.9% → 35%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+10.1%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +7.8% a year for the price.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (2 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
AI conclusion: Moderate returns from hotel conversions form the main strength while absence of a durable moat and high leverage amid sector cyclicality remain the key weakness.
Main risk: Long lead times and reliance on a youth-hostel operator in a tourism-dependent segment could reduce future contract income and occupancy rates.
Covivio Hotels is turning an office building in central Paris into a 91-room Generator hostel under a 15-year management contract, with completion slated for 2029 and a target return near 7 percent. This move fits the pattern of office-to-hotel conversions and portfolio rebalancing, yet it also locks in long lead times and performance tied to a youth-hostel operator in a tourism-dependent segment. Will these adaptations deliver steadier income streams or mainly add development risk before any payoff appears?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.REIT - Hotel & Motel · 30 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/15 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score56 · Above median
Fair Value upside+3.5% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)9.3% · Top 25%
Return on assets4.5% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)87.5% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)72.1% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)5.3% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)7.4% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.59× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs REIT - Hotel & Motel median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)9.5× · Cheaper than median
P/B0.88× · Pricier than median
P/S (12 months)8.44× · Priciest 25%
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)14.4× · Pricier than median
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Covivio Hotels Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/COVH
Frequently asked questions
Is Covivio Hotels (COVH) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 7, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €21.11 versus a price of €20.40, about +3% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of COVH?
Our model-based fair value for Covivio Hotels is €21.11 (as of Nov 7, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €20.40.
What is the quality score of COVH?
Covivio Hotels has a Quality Score of 56/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Covivio Hotels (COVH)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €21.11 (as of Nov 7, 2026) from 16 valuation models. Cautious scenario €12.79, optimistic scenario €27.57. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Covivio Hotels stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €21.11, about +3% upside versus a price of €20.40 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario €12.79, optimistic scenario €27.57. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Covivio Hotels (COVH)?
Covivio Hotels reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €384M (latest available figure, as of Nov 7, 2026).
Does Covivio Hotels pay a dividend?
Covivio Hotels currently shows a dividend yield of 7.35% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 7, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Covivio Hotels (COVH) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Covivio Hotels pays a dividend of €1.50 per share a year, a dividend yield of 7.4%. The last ex-dividend date was Apr 17, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 1990. The payout ratio is 70.1% of earnings. Free cash flow covers the dividend 0.95 times. Our assessment: Sustainable. Payout and cash coverage both look sustainable.
What growth is priced into Covivio Hotels (COVH)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Covivio Hotels would have to grow free cash flow by +10.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +24.1 % per year. As of Nov 7, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of COVH use?
Our models discount Covivio Hotels at 9.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.41, country premium for France. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Covivio Hotels that is +10.1 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (9.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Covivio Hotels (COVH) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Covivio Hotels grew +24.1 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +10.1 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Covivio Hotels (COVH) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Covivio Hotels (+10.1 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Covivio Hotels (COVH)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 6.96 %: that much free cash flow Covivio Hotels produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Covivio Hotels (COVH)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Covivio Hotels it is €21.11 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026), against a price of €20.40. It is the blended result of 16 valuation models in 6 families (DCF Models, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit).
Is Covivio Hotels stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 7, 2026, COVH trades below its calculated fair value: price €20.40, fair value €21.11, a gap of about +3% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of COVH?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€20.40); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€21.11). For Covivio Hotels the two are €0.7100 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Covivio Hotels worth?
The market values Covivio Hotels at about €3.2B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 7, 2026). Per share that is €20.40; our models calculate a fair value of €21.11 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about COVH?
Our models span a range for Covivio Hotels: cautious scenario €12.79, base €21.11, optimistic €27.57 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026, price €20.40). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of COVH?
Covivio Hotels trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 9.5 (as of Nov 7, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €21.11 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 8 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings: 12.3. Other multiples: PEG 4.4, P/B 0.9, P/S 8.4, EV/EBITDA 14.0.
What is the PEG ratio of COVH?
The PEG ratio of Covivio Hotels is 4.35 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 7, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Covivio Hotels (COVH)?
Balance-sheet figures for Covivio Hotels (as of Nov 7, 2026): return on equity 9.3%, debt of 0.59 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 56/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is COVH from its 52-week high?
Covivio Hotels trades at €20.40, about 14% below its 52-week high of €23.70 and 3% above the low of €19.75 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €21.11 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Covivio Hotels?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value Host Hotels & Resorts, Inc, Ryman Hospitality Properties, Inc, Apple Hospitality REIT, Inc, Park Hotels & Resorts inc., among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Covivio Hotels stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 7, 2026: price €20.40, calculated fair value €21.11 (+3%), Quality Score 56/100, from 16 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of COVH calculated?
We run Covivio Hotels through 16 models from 6 families: DCF Models, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of €21.11 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. Covivio Hotels currently trades 3% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Covivio Hotels (COVH)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was €20.40. Our model-based fair value is €21.11, about +3% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Covivio Hotels right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. A fairly wide model range (€12.79 to €27.57) leaves room in how you read the outcome. As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Where does the earnings growth of Covivio Hotels (COVH) come from?
Earnings per share at Covivio Hotels grew −1.1 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +4.8 %, EBIT margin −7.9 %, tax rate +0.5 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +2.0 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Covivio Hotels
How large is the market capitalisation of Covivio Hotels (COVH)?
The market capitalisation of Covivio Hotels is €3.2B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Covivio Hotels (COVH)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Covivio Hotels is 8.44 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Covivio Hotels (COVH)?
Earnings per share at Covivio Hotels are €2.14 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 9.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Covivio Hotels (COVH)?
The dividend yield of Covivio Hotels is 7.4% (payout 70.1%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Covivio Hotels (COVH)?
The net margin of Covivio Hotels is 87.5% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Covivio Hotels (COVH)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Covivio Hotels is 9.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Covivio Hotels (COVH)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Covivio Hotels is 4.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Covivio Hotels (COVH)?
The operating margin of Covivio Hotels is 72.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Covivio Hotels (COVH)?
Revenue at Covivio Hotels is growing +5.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +15.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Covivio Hotels (COVH)?
Earnings per share at Covivio Hotels are growing +19.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Covivio Hotels (COVH) carry?
The net debt of Covivio Hotels is €2.5B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 11.2 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 7, 2026