Energy Transfer LP (ET) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Energy Transfer LP stock $15.12, price $18.92, that is 20.1% below the price, quality 47 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 7, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $5.58 – $21.73 · fair‑value band $10.05 – $29.48 · the $18.92 price screens above the $15.12 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 7, 2026.
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Energy Transfer LP, together with its subsidiaries, provides energy-related services in the United States.
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It operates through Intrastate Transportation and Storage; Interstate Transportation and Storage; Midstream; Natural Gas Liquid (NGL) and Refined Products Transportation and Services; Crude Oil Transportation and Services; Investment in Sunoco LP; Investment in USA Compression Partners, LP (USAC); and All Other segments.
The company owns and operates natural gas transportation pipelines and storage facilities; and approximately 12,200 miles of intrastate natural gas transportation pipelines and 20,090 miles of interstate natural gas pipelines.
It also sells natural gas to electric utilities, independent power plants, local distribution and other marketing companies, and industrial end-users.
In addition, the company owns and operates natural gas gathering pipelines, processing plants, and treating and conditioning facilities; and natural gas gathering, compression, treating, dehydration and processing, oil pipeline facilities.
Further, it owns 5,700 miles of NGL pipelines; NGL fractionation and storage facilities; and other NGL storage assets and terminals.
Additionally, the company provides crude oil transportation, terminalling, trucking, acquisition, and marketing activities; owns and operates approximately 18,000 miles of crude oil trunk and gathering pipelines; and sells and distributes motor fuels and other petroleum products under the Sunoco and EcoMaxx brands.
It also offers natural gas compression; wholesale power trading; and carbon dioxide and hydrogen sulfide removal services, as well as management of coal and natural resources properties; sells standing timber; leases coal-related infrastructure facilities; and collects oil and gas royalties.
The company was formerly known as Energy Transfer Equity, L.P. and changed its name to Energy Transfer LP in October 2018. Energy Transfer LP was founded in 1996 and is headquartered in Dallas, Texas.
Stock analysis
Energy Transfer LP (ET) currently trades at $18.92, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $15.12, 20% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $22.68 per share, and 9 of the 26 models we run sit above the $18.92 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $4.18, and 17 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $10.05 (bear) to $29.48 (bull), the price of $18.92 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 47/100 (below-average quality), in the Energy sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Energy Transfer LP reported revenue of $82.6B in FY2025 versus $67.4B in FY2021, a compound +5.2%/yr. Reported net income was $4.9B in FY2025, compounding −2.7%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $65.5B Large · P/E ratio 12.5 · P/S ratio 0.66 · EPS (TTM) $1.51 · Dividend yield 7.2% · Net margin 4.4% · Return on equity 15.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 7.4% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 55 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 13% below its 52-week high and 23% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −30% fair-value upside, at −20%, ET screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$10.05Fair Value $15.12Bull$29.48
Price $18.92 · Downside -20.1%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.1325 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, 2 officers or directors bought shares worth $21.5M, most recently on Aug 19, 2026. Buying cluster
BuyKelcy L WarrenDirector2× since Nov 19, 2025: 3,000,000 shares, avg. $18.34$55.0MAug 19, 2026
BuyJames Richard PerryDirector12,359 shares at $20.23$250,030Aug 7, 2026
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−0.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−2.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+16.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +7.0% a year
Revenue growth 21 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+18.5%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+3.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−4.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)7.2%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−4.2% vs 3.8%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.8% → 11%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 5.6%/yr over ~10Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+15.5%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+11.4%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +12.8% a year for the price and +8.8% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (100 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
AI conclusion: Energy Transfer's vast pipeline network and stable fee-based contracts provide a moderate moat, yet elevated debt and limited innovation constrain durability.
Main risk: Federal regulators could require extensive inspections and repairs across Energy Transfer's pipeline network due to leak risks, which might increase operating expenses and temporarily disrupt volumes or margins.
Bull case: Energy Transfer could strengthen pipeline integrity programs and secure long-term contracts that pass through higher compliance costs while expanding into high-demand areas like data center gas supply.
Bear case: Repeated regulatory orders and repairs could raise costs significantly, delay projects and reduce the appeal of fee-based midstream services if safety concerns lead to stricter oversight or volume restrictions.
Energy Transfer just raised its quarterly distribution for the twentieth consecutive time, drawing on cash flows from its vast pipeline network and the recent Vaquero Midstream deal. Our models currently see the stock as overvalued. Will the fee-based midstream business scale fast enough to support higher payouts and ongoing projects, or will leverage and execution risks weigh heavier?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas Midstream · 81 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score47 · Below median
Fair Value upside−20.1% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)15.6% · Above median
Return on assets4.4% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)5.5% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)7.5% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)85.9% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)7.2% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.99× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas Midstream median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)12.5× · Cheaper than median
P/B1.91× · Cheaper than median
P/S (12 months)0.66× · Cheapest 25%
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)21.5× · Pricier than median
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Energy Transfer LP Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ET
Frequently asked questions
Is Energy Transfer LP (ET) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 7, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $15.12 versus a price of $18.92, about 20% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of ET?
Our model-based fair value for Energy Transfer LP is $15.12 (as of Nov 7, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $18.92.
What is the quality score of ET?
Energy Transfer LP has a Quality Score of 47/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Energy Transfer LP (ET)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $15.12 (as of Nov 7, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $10.05, optimistic scenario $29.48. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Energy Transfer LP stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $15.12, about 20% lower versus a price of $18.92 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $10.05, optimistic scenario $29.48. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Energy Transfer LP (ET)?
Energy Transfer LP reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $125B (latest available figure, as of Nov 7, 2026).
Does Energy Transfer LP pay a dividend?
Energy Transfer LP currently shows a dividend yield of 7.16% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 7, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Energy Transfer LP (ET) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Energy Transfer LP pays a dividend of $1.36 per share a year, a dividend yield of 7.2%. The last ex-dividend date was Nov 6, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 2006. The payout ratio is 89.7% of earnings. Free cash flow covers the dividend 0.82 times. Our assessment: Watch coverage. The dividend isn’t fully covered by free cash flow or earnings, part of it is funded from reserves or debt. Fine for now, but worth watching: if it stays uncovered, the dividend could be cut.
What growth is priced into Energy Transfer LP (ET)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Energy Transfer LP would have to grow free cash flow by +15.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +16.2 % per year. As of Nov 7, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of ET use?
Our models discount Energy Transfer LP at 8.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.60, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Energy Transfer LP that is +15.5 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (8.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Energy Transfer LP (ET) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Energy Transfer LP grew +16.2 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +15.5 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Energy Transfer LP (ET) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +14.1 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Energy Transfer LP (+15.5 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Energy Transfer LP (ET)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 5.87 %: that much free cash flow Energy Transfer LP produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Energy Transfer LP (ET)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Energy Transfer LP it is $15.12 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026), against a price of $18.92. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models in 8 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Energy Transfer LP stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 7, 2026, ET trades above its calculated fair value: price $18.92, fair value $15.12, a gap of about −20% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ET?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($18.92); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($15.12). For Energy Transfer LP the two are $3.80 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Energy Transfer LP worth?
The market values Energy Transfer LP at about $65.5B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 7, 2026). Per share that is $18.92; our models calculate a fair value of $15.12 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ET?
Our models span a range for Energy Transfer LP: cautious scenario $10.05, base $15.12, optimistic $29.48 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026, price $18.92). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of ET?
Energy Transfer LP trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 12.5 (as of Nov 7, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $15.12 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 9 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings: 11.4. Other multiples: PEG 0.6, P/B 1.9, P/S 0.7, EV/EBITDA 9.3.
What is the PEG ratio of ET?
The PEG ratio of Energy Transfer LP is 0.60 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 7, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Energy Transfer LP (ET)?
Balance-sheet figures for Energy Transfer LP (as of Nov 7, 2026): return on equity 15.6%, debt of 1.99 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 47/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ET from its 52-week high?
Energy Transfer LP trades at $18.92, about 13% below its 52-week high of $21.73 and 23% above the low of $15.38 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $15.12 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Energy Transfer LP?
From the same area (Energy) we also value Enbridge Inc, The Williams Companies, Inc, Enterprise Products Partners L.P., Kinder Morgan, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Energy Transfer LP stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 7, 2026: price $18.92, calculated fair value $15.12 (−20%), Quality Score 47/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ET calculated?
We run Energy Transfer LP through 26 models from 8 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $15.12 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. Energy Transfer LP itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Energy Transfer LP (ET)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $18.92. Our model-based fair value is $15.12, about 20% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Energy Transfer LP right now?
Weak quality (47/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The model range is unusually wide ($10.05 to $29.48). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
Where does the earnings growth of Energy Transfer LP (ET) come from?
Earnings per share at Energy Transfer LP grew +4.8 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −6.1 %, EBIT margin +9.5 %, tax rate −0.7 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +2.7 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Energy Transfer LP
How large is the market capitalisation of Energy Transfer LP (ET)?
The market capitalisation of Energy Transfer LP is $65.5B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Energy Transfer LP (ET)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Energy Transfer LP is 0.66 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Energy Transfer LP (ET)?
Earnings per share at Energy Transfer LP are $1.51 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 12.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Energy Transfer LP (ET)?
The dividend yield of Energy Transfer LP is 7.2% (payout 89.7%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Energy Transfer LP (ET)?
The net margin of Energy Transfer LP is 4.4% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Energy Transfer LP (ET)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Energy Transfer LP is 15.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Energy Transfer LP (ET)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Energy Transfer LP is 7.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Energy Transfer LP (ET)?
The operating margin of Energy Transfer LP is 7.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Energy Transfer LP (ET)?
Revenue at Energy Transfer LP is growing +85.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg −2.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Energy Transfer LP (ET)?
Earnings per share at Energy Transfer LP are growing +18.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Energy Transfer LP (ET) carry?
The net debt of Energy Transfer LP is $70.3B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 18.3 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 7, 2026