MPLX LP (MPLX) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 4, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of MPLX LP stock $70.84, price $56.25, upside +25.9%, quality 63 out of 100. Rating: undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 25 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 4, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $17.57 – $60.23 · fair‑value band $32.06 – $135.61 · the $56.25 price screens below the $70.84 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 4, 2026.
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MPLX LP owns and operates midstream energy infrastructure and logistics assets primarily in the United States. It operates in two segments, Crude Oil and Products Logistics; and Natural Gas and NGL Services.
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The company is involved in the gathering, processing, and transportation of natural gas; gathering, transportation, fractionation, storage, and marketing of natural gas liquids; gathering, storage, transportation, and distribution of crude oil and refined products, as well as other hydrocarbon-based products and renewables; and sale of residue gas and condensate.
It also engages in inland marine businesses, comprising fleet of boats and barges transport light products, heavy oils, crude oil, renewable fuels, chemicals, and feedstocks in the Mid-Continent and Gulf Coast regions, as well as a marine repair facility located on the Ohio River; and distribution of fuel, as well as operates refining logistics, terminals, rail facilities, and storage caverns.
In addition, it operates terminal facilities for the receipt, storage, blending, additization, handling, and redelivery of refined petroleum products through the pipeline, rail, marine, and truck transportation.
MPLX GP LLC acts as the general partner of MPLX LP. The company was incorporated in 2012 and is headquartered in Findlay, Ohio. MPLX LP operates as a subsidiary of Marathon Petroleum Corporation.
Stock analysis
MPLX LP (MPLX) currently trades at $56.25, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $70.84, implying the stock looks roughly 21% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $110.93 per share, and 14 of the 25 models we run sit above the $56.25 price.
Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at $13.99, and 11 of the 25 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $32.06 (bear) to $135.61 (bull), the price of $56.25 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 63/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
MPLX LP reported revenue of $11.8B in FY2025 versus $9.6B in FY2021, a compound +5.4%/yr. Reported net income was $4.9B in FY2025, compounding +12.4%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $57.1B Large · P/E ratio 13.1 · P/S ratio 4.74 · EPS (TTM) $4.28 · Dividend yield 7.7% · Net margin 39.3% · Return on equity 33.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 12.7%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 83 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 7% below its 52-week high and 19% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −26% fair-value upside, at 26%, MPLX screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$32.06Fair Value $70.84Bull$135.61
Price $56.25 · Upside +25.9%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, no officer or director bought or sold shares on the open market.
Plus 16 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.84/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+8.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +27.6% a year
Revenue growth 15 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+25.4%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
+17.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+9.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)7.7%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.18.4% vs 11.7%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.3% → 40%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+4.8%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+7.3%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +2.3% a year for the price and +4.8% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (97 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
AI conclusion: Contracted midstream assets deliver stable fee-based cash flows and a moderate moat, yet debt exceeding equity creates leverage risk that requires monitoring.
Main risk: A reduction or termination of obligations by its main customer Marathon Petroleum could reduce throughput volumes and cash flows from MPLX's pipelines and processing assets.
Bull case: MPLX could broaden its customer base beyond Marathon Petroleum while using its infrastructure to supply natural gas for power generation serving data centers.
Bear case: A cut in volumes by Marathon Petroleum combined with tighter environmental rules could leave MPLX with lower asset utilization and higher operating costs that reduce cash available for distributions.
MPLX runs fee-based pipelines and processing plants that move natural gas and NGLs from the Permian and Marcellus to end markets. The partnership is lifting growth spending to build more fractionation capacity on the Gulf Coast and meet export demand, while shedding smaller assets elsewhere. Will those projects generate enough new cash flow to keep lifting distributions at the planned pace while the balance sheet stays comfortable?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas Midstream · 80 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/15 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score63 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+25.9% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)33.7% · Top 25%
Return on assets11.4% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)39.3% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)38.3% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)10.6% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)7.7% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.69× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas Midstream median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "MPLX LP Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/MPLX
Frequently asked questions
Is MPLX LP (MPLX) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 4, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $70.84 versus a price of $56.25, about +26% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of MPLX?
Our model-based fair value for MPLX LP is $70.84 (as of Nov 4, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $56.25.
What is the quality score of MPLX?
MPLX LP has a Quality Score of 63/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for MPLX LP (MPLX)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $70.84 (as of Nov 4, 2026) from 25 valuation models. Cautious scenario $32.06, optimistic scenario $135.61. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the MPLX LP stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $70.84, about +26% upside versus a price of $56.25 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $32.06, optimistic scenario $135.61. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of MPLX LP (MPLX)?
MPLX LP reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $12.0B (latest available figure, as of Nov 4, 2026).
Does MPLX LP pay a dividend?
MPLX LP currently shows a dividend yield of 7.66% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 4, 2026).
What growth is priced into MPLX LP (MPLX)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, MPLX LP would have to grow free cash flow by +4.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +7.1 % per year. As of Nov 4, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of MPLX use?
Our models discount MPLX LP at 8.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.45, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For MPLX LP that is +4.8 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has MPLX LP (MPLX) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at MPLX LP grew +7.1 % a year. The price currently implies +4.8 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of MPLX LP (MPLX) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +14.1 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into MPLX LP (+4.8 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of MPLX LP (MPLX)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 7.18 %: that much free cash flow MPLX LP produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of MPLX LP (MPLX)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For MPLX LP it is $70.84 per share (as of Nov 4, 2026), against a price of $56.25. It is the blended result of 25 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is MPLX LP stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 4, 2026, MPLX trades below its calculated fair value: price $56.25, fair value $70.84, a gap of about +26% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of MPLX?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($56.25); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($70.84). For MPLX LP the two are $14.59 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is MPLX LP worth?
The market values MPLX LP at about $57.1B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 4, 2026). Per share that is $56.25; our models calculate a fair value of $70.84 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about MPLX?
Our models span a range for MPLX LP: cautious scenario $32.06, base $70.84, optimistic $135.61 per share (as of Nov 4, 2026, price $56.25). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of MPLX?
MPLX LP trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 13.1 (as of Nov 4, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $70.84 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings, 5 of the years ex one-offs: 11.2. Other multiples: PEG 3.1, P/B 4.0, P/S 4.7, EV/EBITDA 12.9.
What is the PEG ratio of MPLX?
The PEG ratio of MPLX LP is 3.10 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 4, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of MPLX LP (MPLX)?
Balance-sheet figures for MPLX LP (as of Nov 4, 2026): return on equity 33.7%, debt of 1.69 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 63/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is MPLX from its 52-week high?
MPLX LP trades at $56.25, about 7% below its 52-week high of $60.23 and 19% above the low of $47.37 (as of Nov 4, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $70.84 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to MPLX LP?
From the same area (Energy) we also value Enbridge Inc, The Williams Companies, Inc, Enterprise Products Partners L.P., Kinder Morgan, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is MPLX LP stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 4, 2026: price $56.25, calculated fair value $70.84 (+26%), Quality Score 63/100, from 25 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of MPLX calculated?
We run MPLX LP through 25 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $70.84, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.6% above its aggregate fair value. MPLX LP currently trades 21% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of MPLX LP (MPLX)?
The closing price on Nov 4, 2026 was $56.25. Our model-based fair value is $70.84, about +26% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with MPLX LP right now?
The model range is unusually wide ($32.06 to $135.61). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid quality (63/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Where does the earnings growth of MPLX LP (MPLX) come from?
Earnings per share at MPLX LP grew +17.7 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +2.2 %, EBIT margin +5.7 %, tax rate −0.3 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +9.2 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of MPLX LP
How large is the market capitalisation of MPLX LP (MPLX)?
The market capitalisation of MPLX LP is $57.1B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of MPLX LP (MPLX)?
The price-to-sales ratio of MPLX LP is 4.74 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of MPLX LP (MPLX)?
Earnings per share at MPLX LP are $4.28 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 13.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of MPLX LP (MPLX)?
The dividend yield of MPLX LP is 7.7% (payout 101%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of MPLX LP (MPLX)?
The net margin of MPLX LP is 39.3% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of MPLX LP (MPLX)?
The return on equity (ROE) of MPLX LP is 33.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of MPLX LP (MPLX)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of MPLX LP is 12.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of MPLX LP (MPLX)?
The operating margin of MPLX LP is 38.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at MPLX LP (MPLX)?
Revenue at MPLX LP is growing +10.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +3.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at MPLX LP (MPLX)?
Earnings per share at MPLX LP are growing +3.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does MPLX LP (MPLX) carry?
The net debt of MPLX LP is $24.0B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 5.9 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 4, 2026