Venture Global, Inc. (VG) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 5, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Venture Global, Inc. stock $11.56, price $11.52, upside +0.3%, quality 44 out of 100. Rating: fairly valued. Calculated from audited financials with 15 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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The stock costs about what our calculation considers fair.
Highly profitable · 22.1% net margin (TTM)
Ranks above peers(10/14)
Revenue last quarter +48% vs. a year ago.
Fair value $11.56 · Fairly valued (+0.3%)
Quality 44/100
Mixed Growth(revenue 3y +28.8 %/yr in USD)
0.6% dividend yield · Token dividend
Wide moat79/100 · thin data
Neutral coverage
Insiders bought $15,987 (6M) · sold $209.8M
Some data
High debt
Negative free cash flow
⟳ Cyclical
Risks from the AI analysis
🚩Arbitration ruling for breach of delivery obligations to Galp🚩Cheniere Energy and other LNG exporters🚩Environmental reviews for power and LNG projects
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
How to read this chart
21‑month range $5.89 – $23.71 · fair‑value band $6.62 – $33.95 · the $11.52 price screens below the $11.56 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 6, 2026.
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Venture Global, Inc., a liquefied natural gas (LNG) company, engages in the ownership, development, construction, and operation of LNG production facilities and associated infrastructure in the United States, Germany, France, Netherlands, the United Kingdom, and internationally.
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The company is involved in LNG production, natural gas transportation, and regasification operations, as well as LNG sales and shipping business through LNG tankers. Its LNG projects include Calcasieu, Plaquemines, and CP2 projects.
The company was founded in 2013 and is headquartered in Arlington, Virginia. Venture Global, Inc. operates as a subsidiary of Venture Global Partners II, LLC.
Stock analysis
Venture Global, Inc. (VG) currently trades at $11.52, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $11.56, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 0.3%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $41.86 per share, and 7 of the 15 models we run sit above the $11.52 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $1.66, and 8 of the 15 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $6.62 (bear) to $33.95 (bull), the price of $11.52 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 44/100 (below-average quality), in the Energy sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Venture Global, Inc. reported revenue of $13.8B in FY2025 versus $0 in FY2021. Reported net income was $2.7B in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $30.4B Large · P/E ratio 9.9 · P/S ratio 1.80 · EPS (TTM) $1.27 · Dividend yield 0.6% · Net margin 22.1% · Return on equity 33.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 13.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 79 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 34% below its 52-week high and 96% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −25% fair-value upside, at 0%, VG screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$6.62Fair Value $11.56Bull$33.95
Price $11.52 · Upside +0.3%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($1.02 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, one officer or director bought shares worth $15,987, on Jun 12, 2026. Over the same period, 8 people sold shares worth $209.8M.
SaleJonathan W ThayerChief Financial Officer8× since Mar 18, 2026: 4,777,778 shares, avg. $14.87$71.1MOct 20, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleKeith D LarsonGeneral Counsel and Secretary10× since Nov 13, 2025: 14,407,314 shares, avg. $14.00$201.7MOct 15, 2026
SaleBrian CothranChief Operating Officer2× since May 19, 2026: 778,726 shares, avg. $15.01$11.7MSep 14, 2026
SaleFory MusserSenior VP, Development7× since Nov 14, 2025: 6,241,560 shares, avg. $11.21$70.0MAug 20, 2026
SaleSarah BlakeSVP, Chief Accounting Officer4× since Mar 5, 2026: 1,650,000 shares, avg. $13.77$22.7MAug 14, 2026
SaleJimmy D StatonDirector66,000 shares at $13.35$881,100Aug 13, 2026
SaleSari Beth GranatDirector200,000 shares at $13.49$2.7MAug 13, 2026
BuyMichael SabelOfficer, Director, 10% owner1,226 shares at $13.04$15,987Jun 12, 2026
SaleThomas EarlChief Commercial Officer3× since Dec 5, 2025: 3,000,000 shares, avg. $10.39$31.2MMay 27, 2026
Plus 23 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.52/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+176.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+28.8%
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 3 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 3 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+5.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+5.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.6%
Profit margin 2022 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.55% → 37%
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (93 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.
AI conclusion: Securing long-term LNG supply contracts forms the main strength while execution risks in reliable exports amid the arbitration ruling and negative free cash flow remain the key weakness.
Main risk: Established rivals such as Cheniere Energy with larger operational scale and track record could secure more long-term contracts and pressure margins in the US LNG export market.
Bull case: Venture Global could leverage its modular construction expertise and existing infrastructure to win additional offtake agreements ahead of rivals while navigating permitting processes efficiently.
Bear case: Rivals could capture key contracts and regulatory delays could slow capacity growth, limiting the company's ability to scale exports reliably over the coming years.
Venture Global continues to secure long-term LNG supply contracts while its Calcasieu Pass project faces a recent arbitration ruling that it breached delivery obligations to Galp. That legal outcome highlights execution risks in ramping up reliable exports amid heavy expansion spending. Our models see the stock as overvalued. Will steady project delivery outweigh the pull of new deals?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas Midstream · 81 stocks
Beats the industry median on 10/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score44 · Below median
Fair Value upside+0.3% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)33.6% · Top 25%
Return on assets5.1% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)22.1% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)47.8% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)47.6% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)0.6% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity4.95× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas Midstream median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Venture Global, Inc. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/VG
Frequently asked questions
Is Venture Global, Inc. (VG) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $11.56 versus a price of $11.52, about +0% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of VG?
Our model-based fair value for Venture Global, Inc. is $11.56 (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $11.52.
What is the quality score of VG?
Venture Global, Inc. has a Quality Score of 44/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Venture Global, Inc. (VG)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $11.56 (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 15 valuation models. Cautious scenario $6.62, optimistic scenario $33.95. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Venture Global, Inc. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $11.56, about +0% upside versus a price of $11.52 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario $6.62, optimistic scenario $33.95. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Venture Global, Inc. (VG)?
Venture Global, Inc. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $17.0B (latest available figure, as of Nov 6, 2026).
Does Venture Global, Inc. pay a dividend?
Venture Global, Inc. currently shows a dividend yield of 0.61% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 6, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Venture Global, Inc. (VG)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Venture Global, Inc. it is $11.56 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of $11.52. It is the blended result of 15 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Venture Global, Inc. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 6, 2026, VG trades below its calculated fair value: price $11.52, fair value $11.56, a gap of about +0% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of VG?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($11.52); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($11.56). For Venture Global, Inc. the two are $0.0400 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Venture Global, Inc. worth?
The market values Venture Global, Inc. at about $30.4B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is $11.52; our models calculate a fair value of $11.56 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about VG?
Our models span a range for Venture Global, Inc.: cautious scenario $6.62, base $11.56, optimistic $33.95 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price $11.52). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of VG?
Venture Global, Inc. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 9.9 (as of Nov 6, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $11.56 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.4, P/B 4.5, P/S 1.8, EV/EBITDA 8.4.
What is the PEG ratio of VG?
The PEG ratio of Venture Global, Inc. is 1.42 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 6, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Venture Global, Inc. (VG)?
Balance-sheet figures for Venture Global, Inc. (as of Nov 6, 2026): return on equity 33.6%, debt of 4.95 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 44/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is VG from its 52-week high?
Venture Global, Inc. trades at $11.52, about 34% below its 52-week high of $17.46 and 96% above the low of $5.89 (as of Nov 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $11.56 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Venture Global, Inc.?
From the same area (Energy) we also value Enbridge Inc, The Williams Companies, Inc, Enterprise Products Partners L.P., Kinder Morgan, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Venture Global, Inc. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price $11.52, calculated fair value $11.56 (+0%), Quality Score 44/100, from 15 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of VG calculated?
We run Venture Global, Inc. through 15 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $11.56, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. Venture Global, Inc. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Venture Global, Inc. (VG)?
The closing price on Nov 5, 2026 was $11.52. Our model-based fair value is $11.56, about +0% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Venture Global, Inc. right now?
The model range is unusually wide ($6.62 to $33.95). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
Key figures of Venture Global, Inc.
How large is the market capitalisation of Venture Global, Inc. (VG)?
The market capitalisation of Venture Global, Inc. is $30.4B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Venture Global, Inc. (VG)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Venture Global, Inc. is 1.80 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Venture Global, Inc. (VG)?
Earnings per share at Venture Global, Inc. are $1.27 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 9.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Venture Global, Inc. (VG)?
The dividend yield of Venture Global, Inc. is 0.6% (payout 5.5%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Venture Global, Inc. (VG)?
The net margin of Venture Global, Inc. is 22.1% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Venture Global, Inc. (VG)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Venture Global, Inc. is 33.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Venture Global, Inc. (VG)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Venture Global, Inc. is 13.5% (avg 4y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Venture Global, Inc. (VG)?
The operating margin of Venture Global, Inc. is 47.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Venture Global, Inc. (VG)?
Revenue at Venture Global, Inc. is growing +47.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +28.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Venture Global, Inc. (VG)?
Earnings per share at Venture Global, Inc. are growing +264% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Venture Global, Inc. (VG) generate?
The free cash flow of Venture Global, Inc. is −$6.8B (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Venture Global, Inc. (VG) carry?
The net debt of Venture Global, Inc. is $32.5B (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Some data
Nov 6, 2026