Holcim AG (HOLN) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 5, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Holcim AG stock CHF 66.54, price CHF 73.84, that is 9.9% below the price, quality 58 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 24 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range CHF 17.47 – CHF 80.17 · fair‑value band CHF 56.66 – CHF 75.96 · the CHF 73.84 price screens above the CHF 66.54 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 6, 2026.
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Holcim AG, together with its subsidiaries, provides building materials and solutions in Europe, Latin America, and Asia, Middle East, and Africa.
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It provides foundation, flooring, walling and roofing products, including cement, clinker, and other cementitious materials; ready-mix concrete; aggregates, such as crushed stone, gravel, and sand; and precast, concrete products, asphalts, mortars, roofing systems, insulation systems, tile adhesives, facade solutions, and contracting and services.
The company also provides digital services through HOLCIM+ platform and digital concrete services.
Its products are used in infrastructure projects, such as tunnels, railways and train stations, airports and ports, and bridges; housing projects, including individual and collective housing; commercial projects comprising offices, retail, and public buildings; and industrial projects consisting of renewable energy, oil and gas, and mining.
The company sells its products under the ECOPact, ECOPlanet, Aggneo, Hydromedia, ZinCo Holcim, Elevate, Airium, PRB Group, Cantillana, Flachdach Technologie, Izolbet, Disensa, Tector, DYNAMax, Agilia, Ductal, Artevia, Humes, Tensolite, Compaktuna, and other service brands.
The company was formerly known as LafargeHolcim Ltd and changed its name to Holcim AG in May 2021. Holcim AG was founded in 1833 and is headquartered in Zug, Switzerland.
Stock analysis
Holcim AG (HOLN) currently trades at CHF 73.84, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is CHF 66.54, 10% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of CHF 41.69 per share, and 0 of the 24 models we run sit above the CHF 73.84 price.
Bear case: the Growth Earnings group reads lowest at CHF 9.08, and 24 of the 24 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: CHF 56.66 (bear) to CHF 75.96 (bull), the price of CHF 73.84 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 58/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Holcim AG reported revenue of CHF 15.7B in FY2025 versus CHF 26.8B in FY2021, a compound −12.5%/yr. Reported net income was CHF 387M in FY2025, compounding −35.9%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap CHF 41.0B Large · P/E ratio 105.5 · P/S ratio 2.60 · EPS (TTM) CHF 0.7000 · Dividend yield 2.3% · Net margin 2.4% · Return on equity 2.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 7.6%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 35 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 8% below its 52-week high and 22% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −21% fair-value upside, at −10%, HOLN screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
BearCHF 56.66Fair Value CHF 66.54BullCHF 75.96
Price CHF 73.84 · Downside -9.9%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
FCF DCFCHF 33.16CHF 49.05CHF 80.0079
Growth DCFCHF 35.10CHF 50.70CHF 78.8278
Residual IncomeCHF 20.48CHF 20.22CHF 20.5076
All 24 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCFCHF 33.16CHF 49.05CHF 80.0079
Owner EarningsCHF 8.82CHF 14.16CHF 24.5874
5Y Revenue ExitCHF 27.25CHF 40.86CHF 60.6472
5Y EBITDA ExitCHF 36.94CHF 57.64CHF 85.0875
5Y P/E ExitCHF 14.76CHF 19.23CHF 24.6972
10Y Revenue ExitCHF 28.33CHF 38.93CHF 50.2568
10Y EBITDA ExitCHF 35.21CHF 49.61CHF 65.0369
10Y P/E ExitCHF 21.36CHF 25.15CHF 28.5165
Earnings-Based
Graham-DoddCHF 4.76CHF 5.81CHF 6.5467
EPVCHF 34.76CHF 41.63CHF 47.7674
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGMCHF 30.21CHF 33.27CHF 37.9869
DDM Multi-StageCHF 30.21CHF 38.75CHF 51.2367
Multiples
P/E MultipleCHF 8.92CHF 11.89CHF 14.8763
P/S MultipleCHF 8.92CHF 11.89CHF 14.8758
P/B MultipleCHF 12.09CHF 16.12CHF 20.1655
EV/EBITCHF 41.28CHF 57.50CHF 73.7166
EV/EBITDACHF 42.52CHF 59.14CHF 75.7767
EV/RevenueCHF 22.50CHF 35.29CHF 48.0853
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)CHF 7.48CHF 10.02CHF 14.9654
Growth DCF
Growth DCFCHF 35.10CHF 50.70CHF 78.8278
Rev-Margin DCFCHF 27.25CHF 41.69CHF 59.4572
Economic Profit
Residual IncomeCHF 20.48CHF 20.22CHF 20.5076
ROIC CompounderCHF 34.76CHF 43.26CHF 52.7872
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/ECHF 6.36CHF 9.08CHF 11.8067
The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for a cyclical trough year.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−40.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−18.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−7.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −4.0% a year
Revenue growth 23 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.8%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−26.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−28.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.3%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−28.3% vs −14.3%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.15% → 16%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 1.3%/yr over ~10Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+10.3%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+7.9%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Switzerland: IMF forecast 0.6% a year to 2030, 0.8% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +9.6% a year for the price and +7.3% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (86 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
AI conclusion: Large scale in building materials forms the main strength, while persistently low ROE and margins from commoditized exposure limit any durable moat.
Main risk: A Swiss court has admitted a lawsuit by Indonesian islanders against Holcim seeking emissions cuts and compensation for climate damage, which could require accelerated investments or lead to liabilities that pressure margins in cement production.
Bull case: Holcim could leverage its scale and ongoing investments in CO2 capture and low-carbon formulations to lead the transition, partnering with or acquiring disruptors to expand into higher-margin sustainable building solutions.
Bear case: If litigation succeeds or novel low-carbon alternatives scale rapidly, Holcim might face higher compliance costs, lost market share in core cement, and squeezed margins as customers shift to cheaper or greener substitutes from rivals and startups.
Holcim is rolling out a membrane-based CO2 capture test facility at its Höver plant in Germany that can be retrofitted to existing cement works. The approach targets substantial emission reductions while supporting the shift toward low-carbon materials amid ongoing industry consolidation. Will the technology prove scalable and cost-effective enough to strengthen margins over time, or will the required investments and technical hurdles slow progress on the core operations?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Building Materials · 257 stocks
Beats the industry median on 3/15 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score58 · Above median
Fair Value upside−9.9% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)2.8% · Below median
Return on assets1.2% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)2.4% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)14.3% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)0.7% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)2.3% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.48× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Building Materials median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)105.5× · Priciest 25%
P/B2.67× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months)2.60× · Priciest 25%
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)23.7× · Pricier than median
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Holcim AG Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/HOLN
Frequently asked questions
Is Holcim AG (HOLN) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of CHF 66.54 versus a price of CHF 73.84, about 10% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of HOLN?
Our model-based fair value for Holcim AG is CHF 66.54 (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: CHF 73.84.
What is the quality score of HOLN?
Holcim AG has a Quality Score of 58/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Holcim AG (HOLN)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of CHF 66.54 (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario CHF 56.66, optimistic scenario CHF 75.96. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Holcim AG stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at CHF 66.54, about 10% lower versus a price of CHF 73.84 (overvalued). Cautious scenario CHF 56.66, optimistic scenario CHF 75.96. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Holcim AG (HOLN)?
Holcim AG reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about CHF 15.8B (latest available figure, as of Nov 6, 2026).
Does Holcim AG pay a dividend?
Holcim AG currently shows a dividend yield of 2.30% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 6, 2026).
What growth is priced into Holcim AG (HOLN)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Holcim AG would have to grow free cash flow by +10.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -7.4 % per year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of HOLN use?
Our models discount Holcim AG at 8.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.72, country premium for Switzerland. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Holcim AG that is +10.3 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Holcim AG (HOLN) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Holcim AG grew -7.4 % a year. The price currently implies +10.3 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Holcim AG (HOLN) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Holcim AG (+10.3 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Holcim AG (HOLN)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 4.21 %: that much free cash flow Holcim AG produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Holcim AG (HOLN)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Holcim AG it is CHF 66.54 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of CHF 73.84. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Holcim AG stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 6, 2026, HOLN trades above its calculated fair value: price CHF 73.84, fair value CHF 66.54, a gap of about −10% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of HOLN?
No. The price is what the market pays today (CHF 73.84); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (CHF 66.54). For Holcim AG the two are CHF 7.30 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Holcim AG worth?
The market values Holcim AG at about CHF 41.0B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is CHF 73.84; our models calculate a fair value of CHF 66.54 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about HOLN?
Our models span a range for Holcim AG: cautious scenario CHF 56.66, base CHF 66.54, optimistic CHF 75.96 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price CHF 73.84). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of HOLN?
Holcim AG trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 105.5 (as of Nov 6, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of CHF 66.54 is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2025 it is 22.9 (reported for FY2025: 105.5). Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 9 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings, FY2025 ex one-offs: 8.2. Other multiples: PEG 0.3, P/B 2.7, P/S 2.6, EV/EBITDA 14.4.
What is the PEG ratio of HOLN?
The PEG ratio of Holcim AG is 0.32 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 6, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Holcim AG (HOLN)?
Balance-sheet figures for Holcim AG (as of Nov 6, 2026): return on equity 2.8%, debt of 0.48 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 58/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is HOLN from its 52-week high?
Holcim AG trades at CHF 73.84, about 8% below its 52-week high of CHF 80.17 and 22% above the low of CHF 60.37 (as of Nov 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of CHF 66.54 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Holcim AG?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value CRH plc, Martin Marietta Materials, Inc, Vulcan Materials Company, Heidelberg Materials AG, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Holcim AG stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price CHF 73.84, calculated fair value CHF 66.54 (−10%), Quality Score 58/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of HOLN calculated?
We run Holcim AG through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of CHF 66.54, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. Holcim AG itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Holcim AG (HOLN)?
The closing price on Nov 5, 2026 was CHF 73.84. Our model-based fair value is CHF 66.54, about 10% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Holcim AG right now?
The price sits in the upper half of our model range, so the margin of safety is thin. Read the verdict with care: some models are missing inputs, so the estimate scatters more than usual.
Where does the earnings growth of Holcim AG (HOLN) come from?
Earnings per share at Holcim AG grew +1.9 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −1.7 %, EBIT margin +4.8 %, tax rate +0.6 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −1.7 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Holcim AG
How large is the market capitalisation of Holcim AG (HOLN)?
The market capitalisation of Holcim AG is CHF 41.0B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Holcim AG (HOLN)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Holcim AG is 2.60 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Holcim AG (HOLN)?
Earnings per share at Holcim AG are CHF 0.7000 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 105.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Holcim AG (HOLN)?
The dividend yield of Holcim AG is 2.3% (payout 52.8%, on adjusted earnings, reported 243%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Holcim AG (HOLN)?
The net margin of Holcim AG is 2.4% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Holcim AG (HOLN)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Holcim AG is 2.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Holcim AG (HOLN)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Holcim AG is 7.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Holcim AG (HOLN)?
The operating margin of Holcim AG is 14.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Holcim AG (HOLN)?
Revenue at Holcim AG is growing +0.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg −18.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Holcim AG (HOLN)?
Earnings per share at Holcim AG are growing −92.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Holcim AG (HOLN) carry?
The net debt of Holcim AG is CHF 4.1B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 2.4 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Nov 6, 2026