Kokusai Electric Corporation (KOKSF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Kokusai Electric Corporation stock $13.96, price $31.80, that is 56.1% below the price, quality 63 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 24 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Kokusai Electric Corporation engages in the development, manufacture, sale, repair, and maintenance of semiconductor manufacturing equipment worldwide. The company provides deposition process equipment, treatment process equipment, measuring systems, and ultrasonic generators.
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It also sells related parts; and new and used equipment for wafers. The company was incorporated in 1949 and is based in Chiyoda, Japan.
Stock analysis
Kokusai Electric Corporation (KOKSF) currently trades at $31.80, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $13.96, 56% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $20.29 per share, and 0 of the 24 models we run sit above the $31.80 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $2.08, and 24 of the 24 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $9.96 (bear) to $18.68 (bull), the price of $31.80 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 63/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Kokusai Electric Corporation reported revenue of ¥235B in FY2026 versus ¥245B in FY2022, a compound −1.1%/yr. Reported net income was ¥30.1B in FY2026, compounding −12.5%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap $7.4B Mid · P/E ratio 33.1 · P/S ratio 4.24 · EPS (TTM) $0.9600 · Dividend yield 0.4% · Net margin 12.8% · Return on equity 14.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 13.9% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 65 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −7% fair-value upside, at −56%, KOKSF screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$9.96Fair Value $13.96Bull$18.68
Price $31.80 · Downside -56.1%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 7 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.5042 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−1.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−1.5%
’22
’23
’24
’25
’26
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in JPY ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in JPY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
−10.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−10.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.4%
Profit margin 2022 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.29% → 18%
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+25.9%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+28.0%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in JPY, Japan: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.3% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +23.3% a year for the price and +25.4% for the forecasts.
AI conclusion: The business benefits from nearly half the global market in batch deposition tools essential for AI chips, yet remains exposed to volatile equipment spending cycles.
Main risk: Stricter export controls on advanced equipment to China, historically a major revenue market, could limit sales and raise compliance costs for the company's batch deposition tools.
Bull case: The company could leverage its batch ALD leadership and expand into advanced packaging or new nodes where productivity advantages offset any China restrictions or niche competition.
Bear case: Persistent export barriers combined with single-wafer gains could shrink accessible markets and compress margins on core deposition tools over several years.
Kokusai Electric supplies batch deposition equipment that forms the thin films essential for complex AI memory and logic chips, commanding nearly half the global market in that segment. It frequently gets bundled into grid and electrification stories after its Nikkei inclusion, even though all revenue comes from semiconductor tools rather than power infrastructure. Does the push for more deposition steps in next-generation nodes outweigh the risk of lumpy equipment cycles?
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Semiconductor Equipment & Materials · 235 stocks
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Kokusai Electric Corporation Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/KOKSF
Frequently asked questions
Is Kokusai Electric Corporation (KOKSF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 9, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $13.96 versus a price of $31.80, about 56% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of KOKSF?
Our model-based fair value for Kokusai Electric Corporation is $13.96 (as of Nov 9, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $31.80.
What is the quality score of KOKSF?
Kokusai Electric Corporation has a Quality Score of 63/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Kokusai Electric Corporation (KOKSF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $13.96 (as of Nov 9, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $9.96, optimistic scenario $18.68. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Kokusai Electric Corporation stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $13.96, about 56% lower versus a price of $31.80 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $9.96, optimistic scenario $18.68. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Kokusai Electric Corporation (KOKSF)?
Kokusai Electric Corporation reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥259B (latest available figure, as of Nov 9, 2026).
Does Kokusai Electric Corporation pay a dividend?
Kokusai Electric Corporation currently shows a dividend yield of 0.42% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 9, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Kokusai Electric Corporation (KOKSF) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Kokusai Electric Corporation pays a dividend of $0.135 per share a year, a dividend yield of 0.4%. The next ex-dividend date is Mar 31, 2027. The payout ratio is 28.6% of earnings. Free cash flow covers the dividend 3.69 times. Our assessment: Well covered. A low payout and the dividend is fully funded by free cash flow, a comfortable, sustainable dividend.
What growth is priced into Kokusai Electric Corporation (KOKSF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Kokusai Electric Corporation would have to grow free cash flow by +25.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 4 years revenue grew -1.1 % per year. As of Nov 9, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of KOKSF use?
Our models discount Kokusai Electric Corporation at 11.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 2.17, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Kokusai Electric Corporation that is +25.9 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (11.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Kokusai Electric Corporation (KOKSF) delivered so far?
Over the past 4 years revenue at Kokusai Electric Corporation grew -1.1 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +25.9 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Kokusai Electric Corporation (KOKSF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +16.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Kokusai Electric Corporation (+25.9 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Kokusai Electric Corporation (KOKSF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 2.71 %: that much free cash flow Kokusai Electric Corporation produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Kokusai Electric Corporation (KOKSF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Kokusai Electric Corporation it is $13.96 per share (as of Nov 9, 2026), against a price of $31.80. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models in 8 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Kokusai Electric Corporation stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 9, 2026, KOKSF trades above its calculated fair value: price $31.80, fair value $13.96, a gap of about −56% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of KOKSF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($31.80); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($13.96). For Kokusai Electric Corporation the two are $17.84 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Kokusai Electric Corporation worth?
The market values Kokusai Electric Corporation at about $7.4B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 9, 2026). Per share that is $31.80; our models calculate a fair value of $13.96 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about KOKSF?
Our models span a range for Kokusai Electric Corporation: cautious scenario $9.96, base $13.96, optimistic $18.68 per share (as of Nov 9, 2026, price $31.80). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of KOKSF?
Kokusai Electric Corporation trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 33.1 (as of Nov 9, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $13.96 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.1, P/B 5.4, P/S 4.5, EV/EBITDA 18.4.
What is the PEG ratio of KOKSF?
The PEG ratio of Kokusai Electric Corporation is 1.10 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 9, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Kokusai Electric Corporation (KOKSF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Kokusai Electric Corporation (as of Nov 9, 2026): return on equity 14.5%, debt of 0.16 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 63/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
Which stocks are comparable to Kokusai Electric Corporation?
From the same area (Technology) we also value ASML Holding, Applied Materials, Inc, Lam Research Corporation, KLA Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Kokusai Electric Corporation stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 9, 2026: price $31.80, calculated fair value $13.96 (−56%), Quality Score 63/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of KOKSF calculated?
We run Kokusai Electric Corporation through 24 models from 8 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $13.96 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Kokusai Electric Corporation itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Kokusai Electric Corporation (KOKSF)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $31.80. Our model-based fair value is $13.96, about 56% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Kokusai Electric Corporation right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($18.68). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (63/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range ($9.96 to $18.68) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Kokusai Electric Corporation
How large is the market capitalisation of Kokusai Electric Corporation (KOKSF)?
The market capitalisation of Kokusai Electric Corporation is $7.4B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Kokusai Electric Corporation (KOKSF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Kokusai Electric Corporation is 4.24 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Kokusai Electric Corporation (KOKSF)?
Earnings per share at Kokusai Electric Corporation are $0.9600 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 33.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Kokusai Electric Corporation (KOKSF)?
The dividend yield of Kokusai Electric Corporation is 0.4% (payout 14.0%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Kokusai Electric Corporation (KOKSF)?
The net margin of Kokusai Electric Corporation is 12.8% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Kokusai Electric Corporation (KOKSF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Kokusai Electric Corporation is 14.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Kokusai Electric Corporation (KOKSF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Kokusai Electric Corporation is 13.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Kokusai Electric Corporation (KOKSF)?
The operating margin of Kokusai Electric Corporation is 21.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Kokusai Electric Corporation (KOKSF)?
Revenue at Kokusai Electric Corporation is growing +45.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg −1.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Kokusai Electric Corporation (KOKSF)?
Earnings per share at Kokusai Electric Corporation are growing +70.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Kokusai Electric Corporation (KOKSF) carry?
The net debt of Kokusai Electric Corporation is ¥13.5B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 0.4 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 9, 2026